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    Iraq foreign exchange reserves Part 2


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    Iraq foreign exchange reserves Part 2

    Post  Seck on Tue 29 Jan 2013, 17:24

    completely set up by the CBI official central market exchange, by the sale of foreign currency purchased in accordance with market mechanism. Promised at the same time vital area and President of the intervention of monetary policy in the exchange market and impose stability in consonance with the desire for economic growth of the country. multiple regime After more than two decades the country experienced in a system of multiple exchange multiple regime ، Valued at exchange rates more than thirteen support the economic policy adopted during the period of the previous regime, ranging from an official rate of the dinar was 3.2 3.2 ن bipolar Dollars per dinar and the rate was last increased on the official 1450 dinars per dollar, which reflects there is a wide spectrum between these two poles bipolar المتطرفين من معدلات الصرف الرسمية . Extremists of the official exchange rates. مقابل ذلك كانت هنالك سوق موازية للصرف ، Contrast, there was a parallel market exchange rate, purely floating Hybrid configuration and deals at rates of exchange of the Iraqi dinar vary according to category of Iraqi currency and method of printing, but that market was the market leader in setting the rates of exchange in accordance with the rules of floating absolute or fully purely floating exchange . On this basis, the established drainage system infected with a lot of distortions by the various official pluralism in addition to the exchange market and the prices are determined by them. Where drainage systems are in support of multiple fixed exchange rates is unrealistic for goods and services supplied and denominated in foreign currency, while the commodity market affected by the waves of inflationary source of the parallel exchange market Almamomp القائدة للسعر . Lead for the price. . Punctuated by monetary policy devoid of any capacity to intervene in that market and ease the demand on foreign currency over the scarcity of near-absolute view of foreign currency.

    pegged regime That the foreign currency auction in late 2003, has come to announce the end of the fixed exchange rate system pegged regime in Iraq والتحول نحو الأنظمة المرنة للصرف . And the shift towards flexible exchange rate regimes. But the question remains the Chairman that the auction of foreign currencies, which has fueled offers demand for the currency listed in the central market of foreign exchange for the past five years of its foundation and as a boat 50 billion, and could at the same time makes them the central market of exchange (auction of foreign currency) is the leader in determining the exchange rate and affecting in the exchange market, trends and tendencies, has become without doubt the vital area, which gave the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Iraq the ability to broad intervention to stabilize the external value of the Iraqi dinar and the application of a broad spectrum of policy stability and fight inflation, which brings us back to question Chairman of the nature of exchange rate system adopted, or what exchange rate system adopted by the monetary policy throughout the past period? . This is what we want to we are considering in this paper, after having become the central market area president of the exchange in the financing of foreign trade to the private sector in meeting the needs of banks and their customers in foreign currency. Given that the auction in question, has become the lungs of monetary policy in the application and means of indirect particularly the practice of open market operations to control the levels of liquidity through the use of the balance sheet of the Central Bank of Iraq as a means to achieve a balance of cash by moving and direct liabilities and assets towards stability in the money market, Cash balance as well as outside.nominal anchor And notice that the central market of exchange has become a field appropriate to pass a reference exchange rate desired by the monetary policy and adopting the names installer nominal anchor . The inflationary expectations of the public within the policy adopted by the Central Bank to intervene in the exchange market to stabilize. . Notwithstanding the foregoing, the raises ire of researchers everywhere and appropriate, is the form of drainage system and the arrangements adopted by the right. فهل هو نظام صرف ثابت regime Is it a system of fixed exchange regime pegged pegged او نظام صرف زاحف نحو الثبات crawling pegged Or drainage system towards the creepy crawling pegged consistency أم نظام معوم float Or a floating float أم هو نظام وسيط intermediate Or is the system and intermediate broker بين الحالات المذكورة . Between the cases. managed float However, the opinion makers supporter of monetary policy in the CBI, see it as a floating system orbit managed float إلى حد ما. To some extent. ا However, the various research efforts in the world is still the other in constant contact to find the actual classification لنظم الصرف لبلدان العالم المختلفة . Of the drainage systems of the countries of the world. فعلى سبيل المثال وجد الكاتبان Genberg and Swoboda 2005 For example, the authors found Genberg and Swoboda 2005 ، بان ثمة تناقض في النتائج المتحصلة لمثل تلك التصنيفات لنظم الصرف. , That there is a contradiction in the results obtained for such classifications for drainage systems. فالنتائج المستخلصة طبقاً لما يسمى بحالة ألامر الواقع defacto Results are derived in accordance with the so-called de facto situation defacto floating It can be misleading sometimes. Section shows, for example, that countries which claim to be adopting a system of floating exchange rate floating Show high rates of stability in exchange rates can not be said

    تعتمد نظاماً ثابت للصرف pegged Adoption of a system of fixed exchange rate pegged ولكن بالتأكيد تعبر عن الاختيار الأمثل لسياساتها النقدية. But certainly reflect the choice of monetary policy.

    An understanding of exchange rate policies, is one of the key issues in improving the capacity of monetary policy-makers and enable them to design new models have the capability to realize the behavior of exchange rates and trends, as well as improved level design of monetary policy itself and ensure its proper application. كما ان فهم سياسة سعر الصرف تعد مسألة جوهرية لمعرفة الطريقة التي يعمل فيها الاقتصاد الكلي. An understanding of the exchange rate policy is essential to know how the functioning of the overall economy.

    2. التطورات التطبيقية ونماذج نظم الصرف : 2. Applied developments and models of drainage systems:

    It has become difficult for the countries, to estimate accurately, any of the drainage system is more beneficial for economic growth, drainage systems, whether flexible or fixed. لذلك فان إجراء أية تصنيف على هذا الاساس المذكور آنفاً Therefore, to make any classification on this basis the above-mentioned يعد شيئاً يشوبه الكثير من الغموض. Is something tainted by a lot of ambiguity. Although, it has tried a lot of economists to establish classifications of drainage systems, including applications that used the International Monetary Fund to adopt and publish in its annual reports on the arrangements and limitations of systems of exchange and foreign exchange. bipolar Regardless of this and that, it was found these economists the idea that the countries selected for the drainage system, whether that was flexible or fixed, is the question leaves no other option because of the great difficulties Taatari identification systems and intermediate exchange rate lies between the two polar or extremists bipolar As mentioned in the above, because it comes the ability to disclosure or transparency about restrictions on drainage systems in different countries.

    حيث وجد الكاتبان Reinhart and Rogoff (2004) Where the authors found Reinhart and Rogoff (2004) 1983 وحتى العام In Bgesehma which dealt with 153 countries in the world and for the period from 1946 to 2001 found that 45% of those countries that claim consistency in dispensing systems had a parallel exchange markets is the case of Iraq during the period 1983 and until 2003 . dejure The authors also found themselves, that many of the countries that were formally adopt dejure نظماً ثابتة للصرف pegged regimes Fixed exchange rate regimes pegged regimes او نظماً للصرف الثابت الزاحف crawling pegs Or systems of exchange hard creeping crawling pegs ، فانها اعتمدت ، كواقع حال defacto , It adopted a reality if the defacto نظماً مرنة للصرف. Flexible exchange rate systems. كما في بلدان اخرى ، كانت تعتمد رسمياً نظم مرنة للصرف floating regimes As in other countries, was formally adopted flexible systems of exchange floating regimes باتت كواقع حال defacto Become a reality if the defacto تعتمد نظم صرف ثابتة او ثابتة زاحفة. Adopt a fixed exchange systems or fixed-runners. This collection is about 53% of the group of countries surveyed by the authors mentioned above, as it has had such البلدان ان تعلن بنفسها انها تعتمد انظمة صرف معومة مدارة managed float regimes Countries to announce their own systems, they rely managed floating exchange managed float regimes . .

    3. دراسة نموذج Levy – Yegati and Sturzengger (2005) 3. Model Study of Levy – Yegati and Sturzengger (2005) ومحاولة تطبيقه على واقع نظام الصرف العراقي And try to apply to the reality of the Iraqi banking system

    The authors contributed in the above case to deepen understanding of other arrangements to see drainage systems and rules, yet use the broader sample of countries promised until the present time, which included 183 countries that provide the IMF with information regularly since 1974 and until 2000. The researchers also rated drainage systems and arrangements depending on the behavior of three variables are:

    - التغير change - Change change In the nominal exchange rates.

    - التقلب volatility - Volatility of volatility . Changes in nominal exchange rates.- Fluctuations in international reserves (reserve of foreign assets).

    Off premise upon which the search of the idea that, that the systems of fixed exchange fluctuations associated with high foreign reserves in order to maintain exchange rate stability. In contrast, the floating exchange rate systems lead to the level of volatility is at least in foreign reserves, to meet a high volatility in exchange rates. قدم الكاتبان Levy-Yegati and Sturzenegger The authors presented Levy-Yegati and Sturzenegger انوذجهما على مرحلتين : Anozjhma in two phases:

    : The first phase, the definition of the net foreign reserves:

    … … (1) (1)

    حيث تمثل: Which represent: اForeign assets in the period t

    t Foreign liabilities in the period t

    موجودات الحكومة المركزية من العملة في المدة t Assets of the central government of the currency in period t

    سعر صرف العملة للبلد موضوع الدراسة في المدة t Currency exchange rate of the country in question in the period t

    وتضمنت المرحلة الثانية قياس التدخل الشهري monthly intervention The second phase included the measurement of interference monthly monthly intervention من جانب السياسة النقدية في سوق الصرف الاجنبي باستخدام الصيغة الآتية: By monetary policy in the foreign exchange market using the following formula:

    … … (2) (2)

    حيث تمثل As they represent النقد الأساس Monetary base Monetary base Monetary base In the previous period which represents the liabilities of the Central Bank, which has the ability to create or generate money. وان And تمثل الاحتياطي الاجنبي Represents the foreign reserves للبنك المركزي. The Central Bank.

    The findings of the authors mentioned in their search wide, has confirmed that the fluctuations in foreign reserves ، Reflects the absolute level of intervention or free monthly by the Monetary Authority وبهذا فان Thus, the هي دالة لـ Is a function for And the results reached by other authors in the above are as follows:

    purely float First: it was noted that the systems fully floating exchange purely float Results were consistent with the achievement of very low volatility in foreign reserves as expected.

    dejure Second: The increasing number of countries adopting floating exchange systems formally dejure قد تطورت بالمسار نفسه الالخوف من التعويم fear of floating Have evolved the same path of floating Alalkhov fear of floating ، وهي مجموعة البلدان التي اعتمدت التعويم غير النظيف dirty floating , A group of countries that have adopted floating is Clean dirty floating كواقع حال defacto Reality if the defacto بسبب سياسات التدخل المفرط في سوق الصرف . Policies because of excessive interference in the exchange market. As the authors mentioned a study showed that the emergence of the phenomenon of fear of floating has already started since the beginning of the seventies of the last century.

    4. نتائج التطبيق على الواقع العراقي: 4. The results of the application on the Iraqi situation:

    حسب بيانات العام 2008 According to data from the year 2008

    Was used monthly data available in the balance sheet of the Central Bank of Iraq during the period December 2003 to July 2008 on international reserves and other data Whether data within the budget or outside, in addition to data on the exchange rates used in the central bank auction of foreign currency and according to the monthly averages or recorded at the end of each month. وبعد الأخذ بالاعتبار جانب الاستخدامات في القاعدة النقدية Monetary base After taking into account the use in the monetary base Monetary base وإجراء التطبيقات على حسب المعادلتين And make applications according to equations (1) (1) ، , (2) (2) التي اعتمدها الكاتبان Levy-Yagati & Sturzenegger Adopted by the authors Levy-Yagati & Sturzenegger semi managed floating Turned on according to the calculations shown in the tables accompanying this study and graphs, the exchange rate system adopted by the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Iraq is the average of the drainage system is approaching the status of the system can be described as semi-floating orbit semi managed floating حيث بلغ متوسط قيمة As the average value of Any level of intervention in the exchange market by the monetary authority indicator value amounted to about (0.050) (0.050) مما يتطلب بهذا الشأن توضيح ما يأتي: Which require clarification in this regard as follows:

    اذا كان متوسط القيمة العليا لمستوى التدخل هو If the average value of the upper level of intervention is معنى ذلك ان نظام الصرف هو اقرب الى الثبات pegged This means that the system of exchange is pegged closer to the stability . .

    واذا كان متوسط القيمة الدنيا لمستوى التدخل هو If the average value of the minimum level of intervention is Or even close to zero means that the drainage system is a system full flotation, ie, that:Thus, the level of involvement by the monetary policy practiced by the Central Bank of Iraq in the exchange market Is reasonable in the intervention and not very heavy which is higher than zero but less than one much, because it means that the market exchange rate is determined automatically according to the forces of supply and demand and the level inflows and outflows of foreign currency.

    5. الاستنتاجات : 5. Conclusions:

    لما تقدم ، فان تشخيص نظام الصرف بالعراق على انه نظام معوم مدار managed float Of the above, the diagnosis of drainage system in Iraq as a system floating over the managed float ، Reflects the apparent level of involvement by the Iraqi Central Bank in the exchange market to represent the optimum level in the implementation of measures of monetary policy of the CBI, which leads to lower inflation and raise the external value of the Iraqi dinar at a rate rose by the Iraqi dinar exchange rate during the study period, including over 41%

      Current date/time is Fri 28 Jul 2017, 10:45