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    Kirk's analysis...

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    Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Sat 06 Sep 2014, 07:29

    ...  What a Face

    Kirk Sowell@UticensisRisk

    9/6/2014
    Update on seating the government...
    ...compiled from sequential tweets...

    It appears Iraq may have a new govt today. Parl't expected to meet in about 30mins. Will discuss budget first.  Parl't postponed because acting Finance Minister Safi was late showing up; perhaps he was tied up in last minute coalition talks. Abadi has till next Wed to get his cabinet approved. If he can't hold together this fragile structure today then he has some spare time if he fails.

    The leaks re Abadi's cabinet are on some points contradictory, but an overall picture is emerging: a pure Frankenstein Government. Monstrous...The most absurd proposal, for pure comedic value, is to have Maliki, Nujayfi & Allawi all be elected vice-presidents.  Other horrific proposals: Militia Supreme commander Hadi al-Ameri as Defense Minister & former death squad leader Abd al-Hussein Abtan as Sports/Youth Minister....But some sources say Abtan will get Transport Minister...but just the thought of having militia leaders heading Defense & Youth ministries is awful.

    Parliament made quorum but they aren't discussing the cabinet yet since Abadi is apparently not ready yet.  Abadi definitely agreed on Ameri as Defense Minister, but Badr is saying he US embassy is - duh - working to prevent his election.

    Given the delay, if Abadi govt voted today, it is going to be another one of these late-night events. But looks like he's trying 4 today.

    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/508198415553925120

    Kirk Sowell, Iraqi political risk analyst, attorney, historian, translator...
    http://about.me/kirksowell/
    http://www.uticensis.com
    https://www.facebook.com/kirk.sowell.1?fref=ts


    Last edited by goodyboy on Tue 23 Dec 2014, 11:26; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Sat 06 Sep 2014, 09:46

    ... What a Face
    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/508239355971141632
    The Kurds have just pulled out of coalition negotiations with Abadi. But remember the Shia bloc can confirm his govt with its votes alone.  Re the Kurds, the bottom line is Abadi refused to make an up-front payment to make up for what the KRG lost since Jan. That's ~$6.5B.

    11:37am EST
    Well so much for there being an Abadi govt today. Parliament to next meet on Monday.

    The main Sunni group, which combines Nujayfi and Mutlak's blocs, had an internal scandal because Salman al-Jumayli, who failed to win reelection, reportedly tried to use his position on the negotiating team to get himself a ministry. So the 'Union of Iraq Forces' formed a new team.  They are saying demands are the same, and just as unrealistic. If you read Abadi was going to give them 40% of posts, that's not happening.  Main Sunni demands are the same as always...amnesty law, repeal debaath, etc. Don't see any indication Abadi either desires or can make such promises.  The coalition leaks pointed to Mutahidun MP Jabir al-Jabiri getting Interior, which is the only power post the Sunnis were to receive.  Interestingly, I've read 1) Jabiri's wife is an American w close ties with the US embassy, & 2) he is the brother of Zaydan al-Jabiri who is one of the leading JRTN-linked insurgency leaders from Anbar. Anyone have contrary information on him?

    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/508276848644460544
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Sun 07 Sep 2014, 13:04

    ... What a Face
    9/7/2014

    ِA few comments on Hayder al-Abadi's train wreck of a govt formation which he appears to be getting back on track to follow.

    Abadi has sent a letter to Speaker Jiburi formally requesting a vote set for 8PM tomorrow to approve his cabinet. He has to Wednesday.  Abadi's core problem is within the Shia bloc, they have the majority after all. While there does not appear to have been a formal offer of the Defense Min to Hadi al-Ameri, but he was allowed to get confident he'd get it and put out the word, putting Abadi in a bind.  Now some sources saying Ameri will get Interior. So militarize the police instead of the army. Not an improvement.  From what I can tell the appointments have absolutely zero to do with any issue of competence. Shahristani & Jaafari were competing over FM.  While many object to Shahristani politically, he is the only senior figure to have presided over any achievements at all.  Jaafari, by contrast, now gets along with all, but as PM was practically a one-man Keystone Cops Squad.

    But the Shia have so much interest in keeping things together and pressuring their own to compromise. So no surprise Abadi should make it.  Sunni blocs, by contrast, continue to be a total disaster. Their negotiating team fell apart yesterday over accusation of corruption, etc.  A group called the "corrective movement" of Sunni MPs has emerged to challenge Nujayfi, et al. A total mess.  But now desperate, Nujayfi meet with Jaafari today. They have a weak hand, Abadi won't agree to their demands, & doesn't need to.  The Sunnis' candidate for Defense, Khalid al-Obaydi, is the same Allawi nominated back in 2011 but then rejected when Obaydi declared that he would be independent of Allawi. I guess that background is what has convinced Abadi to trust him. (Assuming reports true.) The most offensive point among the Sunnis was that Salman al-Jumayli, who failed to win reelection, tried to use his position on the negotiating team to get the Electricity Ministry, which is a big patronage ministry. Accusations v. others were more vague.

    Re Kurds, story is simpler: Kurds made demands, Abadi refused, Kurds walked away. That's essentially it.  The breakdown of talks between Abadi & the Kurds is precisely what I expected given Abadi's record on oil & budget issues.


    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/508663870043340801
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 08 Sep 2014, 10:25

    ...  What a Face
    9/8/2014, tweet leaks just now...

    Iraq parliament approves heads and members of 26 parliamentary committees. One item off the list. Next...It's still scheduled to meet at 8 PM...Iraqiya TV: Parl. Speaker Salim Al-Jobouri annouced reciept of new gov program/plan & expects to have a list of 26 cabinet members 2night...Iraqi parliament just went into temporary recess to 8PM (Baghdad time, obviously). We're still dealing w committee assignments...

    ...If cabinet list published by the SLC website is correct, this is very bad for Iraq....


    Last edited by goodyboy on Mon 08 Sep 2014, 13:23; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 08 Sep 2014, 12:22

    ... What a Face
    9/8 lunch time somewhere...
    ...tweet leaks...
    Kurdish leaders in 2nd round of talks in Suli sans US, UN envoys. Expected to endorse new Iraq cabinet, but parliament vote likely delayed?

    Iraq Live Update ‏@IraqLiveUpdate  
    Breaking News - Agreement on new govrenment program outlined [Arabic]
    http://burathanews.com/news/247133.html …..

    KRG blinks MT @reidarvisser: Kurdish decision to back Abbadi govt is now being reported by #Iraq media sources
    http://alliraqnews.com/index.php/2011-04-18-02-57-37/146786-2014-09-08-16-25-28.html … …
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 08 Sep 2014, 13:40

    ... What a Face
    9/8 nap time...
    Well it appears the show in Baghdad will go on... Masum, Maliki, etc. are in place, others filling in for Abadi's confidence vote...Yes, the train is leaving the station...Kurds can take or leave what Abadi is offering them.  Everything Abadi has said Maliki has said: increase services, electricity, private sector, foreign relations, oil production, etc...Abadi is wrapping up his speech...nothing unusual or surprising. Praises Maliki. Standard magnanimous speech of a pending victor.

    289 MPs now in parliament (vote pending) - all the boycotters appear to have collapsed.
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 08 Sep 2014, 14:46

    ... What a Face
    Kirkian humor...
    If you don't know Arabic, or if you do, watch this clip to get what happened; hint, Abadi is the guy sitting down. Who needs movies when you have the Iraqi parliament?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPmTp9up26w …
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 08 Sep 2014, 15:13

    ... What a Face
    What a total mess. Abadi is literally inserting ministers names on the fly. This is how the 2014-2018 GOI is being formed. Chief Justice Midhat al-Mahmud is at this moment swearing-in Abadi & his arguably unconstitutionally approved cabinet.  It now appears they will also elect the three stooges - Maliki, Nujayfi & Allawi - as the three vice-presidents. Appropriately farcical.

    Yes, these are honorific positions. Maliki & Allawi esp are finished. The vice-presidency is a retirement home.
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 09 Sep 2014, 07:24

    ... What a Face

    So this is my @TheLoopcast interview on last night's events and the formation of the Abadi government:
    First Look at Iraq’s Newly Formed Government
    http://t.co/yku3L91i8r
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 10 Sep 2014, 14:08

    goodyboy wrote:... What a Face

    So this is my @TheLoopcast interview on last night's events and the formation of the Abadi government:
    First Look at Iraq’s Newly Formed Government
    http://t.co/yku3L91i8r


    ... What a Face
    goodhoody @goodhoody
    an excellent, succint analysis without all the infused guruian gobbledygook and dinarian talk show melodrama...well worth the time!
    "Just to underline this: Abadi agreed to meet not even one demand of the Sunnis & the Kurds. Both capitulated, each with its own fig leaf...."

    Kirk retweets (Joel Wing, Iraqi analyst)...
    Breakdown of Abadi cabinet by party shows same %s as Maliki govt: Shia 56%, Sunni 26%, Kurdish 8%...Abadi govt getting off to inauspicious start with dissension within most political parties in getting the ruling coalition to work together...Kurdish parties have given Abadi 3 months to meet their demands on oil budget & disputed areas...
    http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2014/09/iraq-premier-abadis-cabinet-sworn-in.html …
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Sat 13 Sep 2014, 07:01

    ... What a Face

    Analysis: New Government More of the Same
    By Alexander Whitcomb re the new GOI-KRG relations...with quotes and analysis from Kirk Sowell...

    “This is largely a status quo government. This is not a radical change from the previous one,” said Kirk Sowell, a prominent Iraqi political affairs analyst...

    Read more:
    http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/130920141
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 15 Oct 2014, 12:10

    ...  What a Face

    Iraq Live Update @IraqLiveUpdate
    ISF: Threat to Baghdad is completely & utterly propaganda. Forces stationed in Baghdad are able to 'crush' any signs of ISIS presence.  ISF source: Key areas around Baghdad are secured by highly-trained & well-equipped Elite Force divisions.
    https://twitter.com/IraqLiveUpdate/status/522058803064619008

    Thanks to @Mikeknightsiraq for some sense on the Islamic State's "march on Baghdad." Baghdad was never going to fall...
    http://t.co/lBfDnktC7G

    There is another angle which is that IS is consolidating; giving up less defensible areas while "annexing" western Anbar.  IS is reportedly using west Anbar as a recruiting ground, incorporating it into their Raqqa/Dayr al-Zur center of gravity.  East Anbar, under this reading, wld then be both a buffer & a launching area v. sensitive targets (airport, pilgrims etc).  Those who have talked about even a possible "fall of Baghdad" are unaware the capital is full of well-armed, battle-hardened militiamen.
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 27 Nov 2014, 13:17

    from the iBeach...  What a Face
    Let’s talk turkey…
    ...Kirk’s insights on Iraq are always scholarly...usually a reality check, objective and worth the read...one of the very few analytical commentaries I allow in my unplugged brain...and never contaminated by dumbed down dinarian delusions..




    Iraq: the budget crisis...

    #InsideIraqiPolitics will have a feature article on the budget crisis in the next issue, but a few comments here for context...First, this is going to hurt. A lot. The decline from $120B in 2013 to $100B in 2015 is not as large as it appears since not all the 2013...money was spent in 2013 since ministries never spend their full appropriations. Still, the cuts will be big.  This will put Iraq back to spending almost exactly what it was slated for in the 2012 budget, except with huge extra expenses.

    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/538019154888884224
    http://www.insideiraqipolitics.com


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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 23 Dec 2014, 11:00

    from the iBeach... What a Face

    Iraq Gov approves 2015 budget: $103bn, $20bn deficit, 3.3 million barrel/day, #oil @ $60/bbl.
    http://t.co/VpffwNJ7e1
    http://t.co/xxkAAOCOAu

    "So Iraq's cabinet has just passed a draft of the 2015 budget. Naturally this will be a major topic of the next issue of #InsideIraqiPolitics.  In Iraqi Dinars: 123 Trillion budget, deficit 23T, oil price at $60. FM Zebari gives as headline numbers for the Iraqi budget just passed.  Based on Bloomberg's dinar conversion rate, that's expected revenue of $83.7 billion. No way they make that.

    The Iraqi budget can become more realistic if oil turns around (not likely) or high-end estimates of oil production are true (questionable).  CBI is currently selling IQD at 1,166=$1. But that does not per se match either the Iraqi street nor global markets. The peg has been around that for years, but has fluctuated slightly over time. Was 1169 for a long time and yes, always higher than the official rate.  Street exchange rate is consistently 1,200 dinars/dollar."

    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/547420412733186048


    Last edited by goodyboy on Tue 23 Dec 2014, 23:02; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 23 Dec 2014, 19:10

    goodyboy wrote:from the iBeach... What a Face

    Iraq Gov approves 2015 budget: $103bn, $20bn deficit, 3.3 million barrel/day, #oil @ $60/bbl.
    http://t.co/VpffwNJ7e1
    http://t.co/xxkAAOCOAu

    "So Iraq's cabinet has just passed a draft of the 2015 budget. Naturally this will be a major topic of the next issue of #InsideIraqiPolitics.  In Iraqi Dinars: 123 Trillion budget, deficit 23T, oil price at $60. FM Zebari gives as headline numbers for the Iraqi budget just passed.  Based on Bloomberg's dinar conversion rate, that's expected revenue of $83.7 billion. No way they make that.

    The Iraqi budget can become more realistic if oil turns around (not likely) or high-end estimates of oil production are true (questionable).  CBI is currently selling IQD at 1,166=$1. But that does not per se match either the Iraqi street nor global markets. The peg has been around that for years, but has fluctuated slightly over time. Was 1169 for a long time and yes, always higher than the official rate.  Street exchange rate is consistently 1,200 dinars/dollar."

    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/547420412733186048


    from the iBeach... What a Face
    happyhour...

    Just published on parliament website is a press release indicating, "attend a  special meeting on Thursday Dec 25 regarding the 2015 budget"...whether they can get a quorum or not is yet to be seen...
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  Seck on Wed 24 Dec 2014, 13:28

    goodyboy wrote:
    goodyboy wrote:from the iBeach... What a Face

    Iraq Gov approves 2015 budget: $103bn, $20bn deficit, 3.3 million barrel/day, #oil @ $60/bbl.
    http://t.co/VpffwNJ7e1
    http://t.co/xxkAAOCOAu

    "So Iraq's cabinet has just passed a draft of the 2015 budget. Naturally this will be a major topic of the next issue of #InsideIraqiPolitics.  In Iraqi Dinars: 123 Trillion budget, deficit 23T, oil price at $60. FM Zebari gives as headline numbers for the Iraqi budget just passed.  Based on Bloomberg's dinar conversion rate, that's expected revenue of $83.7 billion. No way they make that.


    Thanks Goody keep it coming

    The Iraqi budget can become more realistic if oil turns around (not likely) or high-end estimates of oil production are true (questionable).  CBI is currently selling IQD at 1,166=$1. But that does not per se match either the Iraqi street nor global markets. The peg has been around that for years, but has fluctuated slightly over time. Was 1169 for a long time and yes, always higher than the official rate.  Street exchange rate is consistently 1,200 dinars/dollar."

    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/547420412733186048


    from the iBeach... What a Face
    happyhour...

    Just published on parliament website is a press release indicating, "attend a  special meeting on Thursday Dec 25 regarding the 2015 budget"...whether they can get a quorum or not is yet to be seen...

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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  Guest on Wed 24 Dec 2014, 16:18

    Seck wrote:
    goodyboy wrote:
    goodyboy wrote:from the iBeach... What a Face

    Iraq Gov approves 2015 budget: $103bn, $20bn deficit, 3.3 million barrel/day, #oil @ $60/bbl.
    http://t.co/VpffwNJ7e1
    http://t.co/xxkAAOCOAu

    "So Iraq's cabinet has just passed a draft of the 2015 budget. Naturally this will be a major topic of the next issue of #InsideIraqiPolitics.  In Iraqi Dinars: 123 Trillion budget, deficit 23T, oil price at $60. FM Zebari gives as headline numbers for the Iraqi budget just passed.  Based on Bloomberg's dinar conversion rate, that's expected revenue of $83.7 billion. No way they make that.


    Thanks Goody keep it coming

    The Iraqi budget can become more realistic if oil turns around (not likely) or high-end estimates of oil production are true (questionable).  CBI is currently selling IQD at 1,166=$1. But that does not per se match either the Iraqi street nor global markets. The peg has been around that for years, but has fluctuated slightly over time. Was 1169 for a long time and yes, always higher than the official rate.  Street exchange rate is consistently 1,200 dinars/dollar."

    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/547420412733186048


    from the iBeach... What a Face
    happyhour...

    Just published on parliament website is a press release indicating, "attend a  special meeting on Thursday Dec 25 regarding the 2015 budget"...whether they can get a quorum or not is yet to be seen...
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 27 Apr 2015, 20:54

    from the iBeach... What a Face

    'Iraq can't even conceivably borrow enough (even from the IMF) to cover its budget. But it can avoid defaulting on external obligations.  Money owed on oil service contracts & in the budget is still technically owed, but can be changed by law.  Or in the case of the oil contracts, renegotiated. But what they originally owed, Iraq cannot borrow enough to pay.'

    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk

    IMO, this dirty little secret could potentially be a factor in forcing the issue…the issue of coming up with a way to pay...
    …and we all know what that way could be...  What a Face

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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  Guest on Tue 28 Apr 2015, 09:07

    goodyboy wrote:from the iBeach... What a Face

    'Iraq can't even conceivably borrow enough (even from the IMF) to cover its budget. But it can avoid defaulting on external obligations.  Money owed on oil service contracts & in the budget is still technically owed, but can be changed by law.  Or in the case of the oil contracts, renegotiated. But what they originally owed, Iraq cannot borrow enough to pay.'

    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk

    IMO, this dirty little secret could potentially be a factor in forcing the issue…the issue of coming up with a way to pay...
    …and we all know what that way could be...  What a Face


    very interesting...where there is a will there is a way!
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 28 Apr 2015, 10:51

    from the iBeach...  What a Face
    ...wonder why we're still here?

    Behind the dinarian scenes...
    ...and insights from backstage where age-old sectarianism is still flourishing...

    "...let's not forget Maliki still controls Dawa's TV channel. Here are some noteworthy videos (in Arabic)...

    Anti-govt videos from Maliki-controlled Afaq TV:
    https://t.co/Rs39VnEGKl
    https://t.co/FNnD22sdjt
    https://t.co/4LY5eBoiBl

    The man who spent eight years corrupting Iraqi security services, now backs protests against those trying to clean up his mess...note that Maliki-backed protests aren't just saying the current government is incompetent; some are arguing that the government is pro-Islamic State. (Dumb, I know, but...)

    Truth is, the current government's management of the Anbar "operation" hasn't been a model of competency. But the audacity of these (Maliki-backed) "protests" is amazing...when news reports say "State of Law (SLC) demands", bear in mind the SLC is heavily divided, part of it supports Abadi, other part Maliki...and there is also Ali al-Adib. So I count three - Allawi, Maliki & Adib - who've never accomplished anything, but looks to replace Abadi."
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 18 May 2015, 18:40

    from the iBeach... What a Face
    ...happyhour tweet...
    ......the irony of happy...


    Kirk H. Sowell ‏@UticensisRisk  
    I'll try: (the fall of) Ramadi is a...fiasco, failure, debacle, disaster, catastrophe, defeat, blowout, rout, beating, thumping...
    ...looks like #ISIS got its hands on more US weapons in Ramadi...fiasco doesn't even begin to describe this................

    for more happiness, please see post #139, link below...  What a Face
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2038p100-cbi-2-eye#46469

    insightful jihadist story on msm...  What a Face
    'Blindsided', CNN...
    http://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2015/04/25/exp-blindsided-life-under-isis.cnn
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 17 Sep 2015, 10:13

    from the iBeach... What a Face
    ...I wonder why...

    Kirk H. Sowell ‏@UticensisRisk 4 minutes ago
    I am trying to write an article on US policy on Iraq, but I'm facing stiff resistance thrown up by the sheer incoherence of the topic.

    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 22 Sep 2015, 15:10

    goodyboy wrote:from the iBeach... What a Face
    ...I wonder why...

    Kirk H. Sowell ‏@UticensisRisk  4 minutes ago
    I am trying to write an article on US policy on Iraq, but I'm facing stiff resistance thrown up by the sheer incoherence of the topic.

    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk


    ... What a Face
    I'm so sorry...

    David Petraeus apologizes again for affair, lays out vision for Iraq and Syria
    WP tweet...
    9/22/15

    David Petraeus, the retired Army general and former CIA director, apologized Wednesday before the Senate Armed Services Committee for his high-profile extramarital affair, and then proceeded to lay out his his vision for how the United States should handle the ongoing conflict in Iraq and Syria.

    The retired general said that the military coalition assembled to fight the Islamic State militant group is impressive, and that “some elements of the right strategy are in place.” But others are under-resourced or missing, and the effort overall is not where it should be at this point, he added.

    “In my judgment, increased support for the Iraqi security forces, Sunni tribal forces and Kurdish Peshmerga is needed, including embedding U.S. adviser elements down to the brigade headquarters level of those Iraqi forces fighting ISIS,” Petraeus said, using one of the acronyms for the militant group. “I also believe that we should explore use of joint tactical air controllers with select Iraqi units to coordinate coalition airstrikes for those units.”

    Petraeus said the United States also should examine whether its rules of engagement on precision airstrikes are too restrictive, but added that the U.S. military should exercise restraint to make sure it does not “take over” Iraqi units.

    “I would, not, for example, embed U.S. personnel at the Iraqi battalion level nor would I support clearance operations before a viable hold force is available,” he said.

    Petraeus said the the center of gravity in defeating the militants lies in Baghdad and Iraq’s central government. Washington doesn’t have the proper organization in place to support that, though, he added. He advocated moving a part of the U.S. military’s operational headquarters from Iraq to Baghdad, saying U.S. Ambassador Stuart E. Jones doesn’t “always have a day-to-day military counterpart.”

    The U.S. military headquarters in Baghdad would focus primarily on operations in Iraq, while another commanding officer could be placed in Turkey or another location to oversee operations in Syria, Petraeus said. He called the country a “geopolitical Chernobyl, spewing instability and extremism over the region and the rest of the world.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/09/22/david-petraeus-apologizes-again-for-affair-lays-out-vision-for-iraq-and-syria/
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    goodyboy
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Sat 26 Sep 2015, 19:00

    from the iBeach... What a Face
    Kirk and some...
    ...just keep doing the dinarian two-step...


    Kirk H. Sowell ‏@UticensisRisk
    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk
    Iraqi parties are relieved to have brought an end to the five-week era of "Abadi's reforms." That was close…Abadi's "reforms" were never radical, most measures were just austerity. But to even talk seriously of changing the system was dangerous.  Let's assume Abadi is totally sincere, his dilemma is that real reforms threatened the parties whose support he needed to pass such reforms.  Also protest activists have lost faith in Abadi pretty quickly. Whether they were right to do so or not I can't say. He met w/ some of them recently…




    ...Blocks off the wheel of Abadi reforms…
    9/26/15

    The parties have succeeded from within and outside the National Alliance to stop the efforts of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in moving forward with the announcement of a new reforms package, despite the recent renewal of his commitment to continue reforms, "even if it cost him his life.”

    ...but members of the al-Abadi Party, (responded in explaining that this is the result of) the damage to some political forces, which lost their posts in the last action reform, which forced them to put pressure on the Prime Minister to stop the reforms, specifically the reduction in the number of ministries to 15, as well as the restructuring of independent bodies…

    ...why stop Abadi?  This was likely to be expected by al-Abadi, a few weeks ago, with a new package of reforms complementing previous measures announced last August and voted on by the Parliament unanimously…but the mystery wheel of reforms has stopped, says the messenger Abu Hasna, a member of the Dawa Party’s, stating that the long time that it has taken for the implementation of the first reform package and breadth of the size of popular demands, has allowed political forces to (organize their interests) and impose new requirements to protect their interests after it was voted on…

    Read more if you want to (Iraqi political sectarianism is alive and well):
    http://www.almadapaper.net/ar/news/496167/الاستحقاق-الانتخابي-للكتل-ينجح-بإيقاف-عج


    Last edited by goodyboy on Sat 26 Sep 2015, 19:37; edited 3 times in total (Reason for editing : translation edits applied...)
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 29 Sep 2015, 09:57

    goodyboy wrote:from the iBeach... What a Face
    Kirk and some...
    ...just keep doing the dinarian two-step...


    Kirk H. Sowell ‏@UticensisRisk
    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk
    Iraqi parties are relieved to have brought an end to the five-week era of "Abadi's reforms." That was close…Abadi's "reforms" were never radical, most measures were just austerity. But to even talk seriously of changing the system was dangerous.  Let's assume Abadi is totally sincere, his dilemma is that real reforms threatened the parties whose support he needed to pass such reforms.  Also protest activists have lost faith in Abadi pretty quickly. Whether they were right to do so or not I can't say. He met w/ some of them recently…




    ...Blocks off the wheel of Abadi reforms…
    9/26/15

    The parties have succeeded from within and outside the National Alliance to stop the efforts of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in moving forward with the announcement of a new reforms package, despite the recent renewal of his commitment to continue reforms, "even if it cost him his life.”

    ...but members of the al-Abadi Party, (responded in explaining that this is the result of) the damage to some political forces, which lost their posts in the last action reform, which forced them to put pressure on the Prime Minister to stop the reforms, specifically the reduction in the number of ministries to 15, as well as the restructuring of independent bodies…

    ...why stop Abadi?  This was likely to be expected by al-Abadi, a few weeks ago, with a new package of reforms complementing previous measures announced last August and voted on by the Parliament unanimously…but the mystery wheel of reforms has stopped, says the messenger Abu Hasna, a member of the Dawa Party’s, stating that the long time that it has taken for the implementation of the first reform package and breadth of the size of popular demands, has allowed political forces to (organize their interests) and impose new requirements to protect their interests after it was voted on…

    Read more if you want to (Iraqi political sectarianism is alive and well):
    http://www.almadapaper.net/ar/news/496167/الاستحقاق-الانتخابي-للكتل-ينجح-بإيقاف-عج


    from the iBeach... What a Face

    Kirk H. Sowell ‏@UticensisRisk
    "Abadi is facing a fierce challenge from the Iran-aligned Maliki-Badr-AAH group at a time of national peril. And he stands practically alone.  Truly amazing how quickly political support for Abadi collapsed once he began talking about "reforms." However modest they in fact were."

    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/[url=tel]648817113738514432[/url]
    ...for commentary on this and cross reference, also see post #95, link below...
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t1970p50-if-we-just-step-back


    Last edited by goodyboy on Thu 01 Oct 2015, 19:50; edited 1 time in total

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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  pontymania on Thu 01 Oct 2015, 07:22

    This is truly along process and the country is in a mess and not far off of merging with Iran.
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 01 Feb 2016, 14:08

    from the iBeach... What a Face

    Kirk H. Sowell ‏@UticaRisk
    https://twitter.com/UticaRisk/status/694201641281720320
    Read on Iraq's economic struggle:  desperate times…

    
http://uk.reuters.com/article/iraq-kurdistan-oil-payments-idAFL8N15G1OK
    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/01/world/middleeast/battered-by-war-iraq-now-faces-calamity-from-dropping-oil-prices.html?smprod=nytcore-iphone&smid=nytcore-iphone-share&_r=0
    https://in.news.yahoo.com/iraq-oil-exports-revenue-plunges-151158564.html

    Fed Iraq would probably be just as behind on salaries as the KRG, absent two key advantages. One, they have a clear legal title to oil.  This means that while Fed Iraq sells at a discount to Brent, they don't sell as at much of a discount as the KRG.  Baghdad's 2nd advantage is it can (improperly) borrow from its Central Bank's large hard currency reserves. But not forever.  While the KRG has seized the reserves of banks operating there, these banks don't have remotely near the assets comparable to CBI reserves.  Also, while both Baghdad & Irbil are breaking the law, what the KRG has done is much more brazen, & more harmful long-term.  And technically I suppose Baghdad is skirting rather than directly breaking the law, so not quite the same.

    you may want to check out Kirk Sowell for an objective perspective…
    ...reportedly a non-dinarian, but a walking encyclopedia on Iraqi politics...


    Kirk Sowell, Iraqi political risk analyst, attorney, historian, translator...
    http://about.me/kirksowell/
    http://www.uticensis.com
    https://www.facebook.com/kirk.sowell.1?fref=ts
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    goodyboy
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    Re: Kirk's analysis...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 29 Mar 2016, 16:15

    from the iBeach... What a Face

    Kirk H. Sowell ‏@UticaRisk
    
https://twitter.com/UticaRisk

    Re Iraq: Abadi's reshuffle is clearly in trouble, but remember that an Iraqi government does not fall on its own like in some parliamenttary systems.  Actually removing Abadi from office requires an affirmative absolute majority. Very unlikely to happen.


    For context, this $1.2 billion WB LOAN replaces ~ 40% of Iraq's oil revenue shortfall from February.  I say this because Iraq’s 2016 budget assumes just under $5 billion/month in oil revenue, but Fed Iraq got just $2.2Bn in oil revenue last month.  March will be better for sure, but not enough. Baghdad had a 56% shortfall two months in a row and that's after the budget was revised down.  This has got to be the biggest "Me Party" in the world.  Of course the WB and IMF loans have greater value as measuring sticks and may help Iraq get broader credit access. But direct $ impact is negligible.

    you may want to check out Kirk Sowell for an objective perspective…
    ...reportedly a non-dinarian, but a walking encyclopedia on Iraqi politics...


    Kirk Sowell, Iraqi political risk analyst, attorney, historian, translator...
    http://about.me/kirksowell/
    http://www.uticensis.com
    https://www.facebook.com/kirk.sowell.1?fref=ts

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