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    What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

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    goodyboy
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    What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 11 Jun 2014, 17:53

    from the iBeach...  What a Face 

    I'm not sure...yet...but I believe in the life principle that all things are working together for good.  So, while its hard to imagine any good stemming from the political quagmire and this aggressive swath of terrorism that is beleaguering the Iraqi people, these events will ultimately force an activation of multiple levels of responsivity and perhaps even a surpassing level of activation that will force crucial issues to come to the surface more quickly than at the rate things were going before the ISIS/ISIL proliferation.  There are creative forces at work, implanted in our universe from the very beginning, directed at bringing beauty out of ashes...since the beginning, history reveals that out of chaos has come creation and out of this Iraqi chaos eventually will come creative forces that are predestined to be...but everything that can be shaken will be shaken and what will emerge from the shake-up will ultimately be worth all the shake, rattle and roll...I believe this politico-religious turbulence stemming from the vulnerability created by sectarianism and the opportunistic malevolence of fanatical fundamentalist ideology will force things that need to come to a head, to come to a head...its all about timing...

    ...now taking this theoretical framework and operationalizing it for us tertiary IQD investors means staying vigilant...by keeping one eye focused on the chaos and the other eye focused on the history of progress already made towards Iraqi monetary reform, along with the continuing flow of progress we see going on in the banking industry and the slow, but steady growth and development of the economic infrastructure in general...and also keeping this other eye on the affirmation we have continued to see towards Iraq's gradual transition into a free market economy, acceptance of IMF guidelines and economic movement towards opening the doors to international investment...all the while maintaining focus on the prize.  Its easy to perhaps feel buried underneath with the weight of all this calamitous news of Iraqi turmoil, but we also need to stay balanced by exercising our anticipation of seeing this investment through to fulfillment by feeding our faith with all the corroborative evidence that reveals the certainty of Iraqi monetary reform being a reality...

    ...I don't plan on being intimidated by what appears to be chaos and the sensationalized news reporting, shock and awe from all the chaos...but I do plan on maintaining firm belief in my dinarian beliefs and refuse to drift into the drain of my doubts...most of the time, dinarian doubts should just be promptly doubted (as in doubt your doubts and believe your beliefs)...and IMO, the best positioning then for us in order to drown out the voice of doubt in our heads, is to turn up the voice of dinarian investment facts (not guruian speculation)...facts that come from staying in tune with the flow of progress that continues to be reported...facts that will feed our faith and faith in turn that will feed our fortitude to maintain patience and perseverance...

    ...stay lit!



    Last edited by goodyboy on Mon 23 Jun 2014, 23:01; edited 8 times in total
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 12 Jun 2014, 15:01

    ...  What a Face 



    What is going on in Iraq and why?

    An al-Qaida breakaway group, apparently backed by other Sunni groups and fighters, has seized a large section of northern Iraq after previously taking much of northeastern Syria with an eye toward establishing an Islamic state straddling the two countries. The situation on the ground is changing rapidly, but some patterns and explanations are now emerging:

    Q: WHY IS THIS HAPPENING NOW?

    A: The group, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, is taking advantage of two trends: growing discontent among Iraq's minority Sunnis toward Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Shiite-led government, which they accuse of discrimination; and the increasingly sectarian dimension of the Syrian civil war, as mostly Sunni rebels fight to oust a regime dominated by members of a Shiite sect. Taking advantage of the breakdown of state authority, militant fighters easily cross the border. The Iraqi territory recently seized by militants is populated overwhelmingly by Sunnis, many of whom, at least for now, may see al-Maliki as more of a threat than the Islamic State. Signs are also emerging that the Islamic State is backed in its current campaign by former military officers and other members of ousted dictator Saddam Hussein's regime.

    Q: WILL IRAQ BE A DIVIDED STATE?

    A: The recent developments have renewed the possibility, much discussed during the war a decade ago, that Iraq be divided into three separate regions or even nations — the mostly Shiite section, made up of Baghdad and much of the south and east bordering Iran; a Sunni area, comprised of western Iraq and parts of the north; and a Kurdish zone, also in the north and including the cities of Irbil and Kirkuk, which Saddam tried to populate with Arabs.

    Q: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE IRAQI SECURITY FORCES? WHY WON'T THEY FIGHT?

    A: Corruption and sectarianism are widespread problems in the security forces, with little sense of professionalism or loyalty to the Baghdad government — even though Shiites make up most of the army. Also, Islamic militants are terrorizing Sunni soldiers and police, in at least one case beheading an officer and then distributing a video of the attack.

    Q: HOW HAVE THE REBELS BEEN ABLE TO MOVE SO QUICKLY?

    A: The Islamic State commands between 7,000 and 10,000 fighters, according to U.S. intelligence officials. The group's military strategy is still somewhat of a mystery, but the extremists have cunningly crafted their tactics and message to meet local considerations. In Syria, they are quite open about their ideology and goals, imposing their strict brand of Islamic law, banning music and executing people in the main square of the city of Raqqa, which they control. In Iraq, they focus on portraying themselves as the protectors of the Sunni community from al-Maliki's government and have at least so far overlooked some practices they consider forbidden.

    Q: WHAT ROLE ARE THE KURDS PLAYING?

    A: Kurdish fighters from the ethnic group's autonomous enclave in the north are showing signs of taking a greater role in fighting back against the Islamic State. Their role is a potential point of friction because both Sunni and Shiite Arabs are wary over Kurdish claims on territory outside their enclave.

    Q: WHAT IS IRAN'S POSITION?

    A: Iran's president has blasted the Islamic State as "barbaric," and its foreign minister offered his country's support to Iraq in its "fight against terrorism." Iran has halted flights to Baghdad and is beefing up border security. As a Shiite country, Iran shares an affinity with the current governments of Iraq and Syria.

    Q: WHY DO I SEE DIFFERENT NAMES FOR THE GROUP?

    A: The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant is a literal translation. It's also sometimes called other names including the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. The name refers to the group's stated goal of restoring a medieval Islamic state, or caliphate, in Iraq and Greater Syria, also known as the Levant — traditional names for a region stretching from southern Turkey to Egypt on the eastern Mediterranean.

    Associated Press
    Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Sun 15 Jun 2014, 14:52

    ...  What a Face 
    Q&A with Kirk Sowell...
    Iraqi political risk analyst, attorney, historian, translator...
    http://about.me/kirksowell/
    http://www.uticensis.com
    https://www.facebook.com/kirk.sowell.1?fref=ts


    A guide to the bitter political fights driving the Iraq crisis
    Updated by Zack Beauchamp
    June 15, 2014, 11:45 a.m. ET @zackbeauchamp zack@vox.com

    The ongoing vicious fighting in Iraq is often characterized as a battle between the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) and the Iraqi government. Many people think of that as simply being a proxy war between Iraq's Sunni Muslim minority and Shia majority.

    But it's much, much more complicated than that. There are Sunnis on both sides of the conflict, and some who are neutral. There are multiple insurgent groups that aren't ISIS. And the Kurds— non-Arab Sunni Muslims who have a semi-autonomous state in northeast Iraq — have a totally unique role in the ongoing fighting, and may actually be benefitting from it.

    To untangle some of these threads, I spoke to Kirk Sowell, a political risk analyst and expert on Iraqi politics. Sowell's firm, Utcensis Risk Services, publishes Inside Iraqi Politics, a biweekly publication covering the latest developments in Iraq. Sowell walked me through the divisions within the Sunni groups, why both ISIS and Iraq's Prime Minister are probably going to fail, and how the Kurds are the big winners of this conflict. What follows is a transcript of our conversation, edited for length and clarity.

    ZB: One of the major drivers of the rise of ISIS has been Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's policy towards the Sunni Muslim minority. Can you talk about the reasons his government has persecuted Sunnis and why that's such a major problem for the country?

    Kirk Sowell: The Sunnis have lots of different grievances. As someone who considers himself a neutral analyst, there are some that I think are fairly reasonable and there are others that I don't think are.

    AT THIS POINT, IT'S HARD TO SEE HOW MALIKI SURVIVES THIS

    The ones I think are pretty reasonable are illegal arrest and treatment of prisoners. It's not just that Sunni prisoners are treated badly, but that they're disproportionately the ones who are prisoners. There's no transparency in terms of prosecution.

    Last year, there were a series of operations to counter what was then a rising insurgency. It was part of the same insurgency, the second Sunni insurgency. They arrested 800 people in a month — nobody knows what happened to these people, how many were innocent, how many were guilty, or if they were prosecuted. Oftentimes Iraqis sit in prisons for years without a trial. Sometimes they're tortured; sometimes people, especially Sunnis, have to pay ransoms to get their family members out of prisons even if they didn't do anything wrong.

    There's also been an increasing and very unwise reliance on Shia militias by the Maliki government, particularly their alliance with Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH), translated as League of the Righteous, a [radical Shia leader] Moqtada al-Sadr splinter group. Then there's the Badr Organization, which is part of Maliki's coalition and controls the Transportation Ministry. It was founded as the military wing of the Iran-backed Shia group called the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq.

    ZB: So is Maliki's policy responsible for all of the Sunni anger at the Iraqi government?

    KS: Even if Maliki weren't in power, there are some Sunni grievances than any Shia government would have problems with. For example, there's a perception problem that exists from the senior leaders to the bottom: Sunnis think they're the demographic majority even though they're not. This was a belief promoted under Saddam, and it's amazingly survived. Typically, when people say that they include the Kurds — they say Sunni Arabs are the plurality and Sunni Arabs plus Kurds are a majority.

    This matters because one of the basic demands of the Sunni protest movement last year — and probably the thing Parliament Speaker Osama al-Nujayfi, perhaps the most important Sunni politician in the country, talks about the most — is this concept of "balance." Balance [between Sunnis and Shias] in the institutions of government. There's some justification for this; de-Baathification [the removal of members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party members from government] has been taken too far.

    This counts in the legitimate grievance category. But it's not just a problem with Maliki. There are some problems Maliki is responsible for. There's certain problems that would exist whether it's Maliki or whatever. You have protestors out there flying the Baathist flag, sometimes talking positively about the old regime or the Iraqi army under Saddam. They want there to be balance, meaning a [Sunni] majority.

    So to sum up: there's two categories of Sunni grievances. One is the legitimate grievances and others which are problems of expectation or perception.

    ZB: Let's talk about the cleavages inside the Sunni community. Do most Sunnis support ISIS?

    KS: There's three major groups, and then I'll subdivide them.

    One group are those who are in the insurgency. A second group would be those who are in the political process, but opposed to Maliki. And a third group would be those who are in the political process and aligned with Maliki.

    There's no scientific polling, but I would say that a clear majority of Sunnis at the grassroots level believe in the political process. There's also a lot of people on the borderline, who are willing to vote but they're also willing to support the insurgency.

    OF THOSE SUNNIS THAT ARE IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS, THE CLEAR MAJORITY ARE OPPOSED TO MALIKI

    In those who are part of the insurgency, you've got ISIS, who is the most radical element. Then you've got more nationalist-focused groups like the Jaysh Rijal al-Tariqa al-Naqshbandia (JRTN), which means "The Army of the Men of the Naqshbandia Way." It's headed by Izzat Ibrahim al-Duri, who was the former deputy of Saddam Hussein. Reportedly, he's in Tikrit now — Saddam's hometown and where the Baath was strongest. Also southwest Kirkuk and Mosul. They're an important group. Their goal to restore a centralized Sunni dictatorship, but more secular than the jihadist caliphate the ISIS would put in place.

    You've got other groups, but ISIS and JRTN are the two biggest. Some of the other groups are very small, and I don't think any of them have a national organization. More like isolated pockets of support here and there.

    I can't really give you numbers, but I can say that ISIS is not a majority on the grassroots level. That said, they're the most organized and their fighters are very battle-hardened, having spent years fighting in Iraq and Syria. The JRTN is also very well organized, but they're not as large and they don't have the financial resources. ISIS has an extensive extortion racket and a large segment of Syria's oil industry. The extortion racket is based in Mosul, which is going to weaken because [as the fighting goes on] the money's going to dry up.

    Of those Sunnis that are in the political process, the clear majority are of the second group I mentioned earlier: those opposed to Maliki. Of those who are opposed to Maliki, Nujayfi's Mutahidun is the largest group — they won 27 seats in the last election. That's down from 45 in the previous. But nonetheless, Mutahidun and the factions that make it up clearly represent the plurality of Sunnis in the political process.

    You've also got Iyad Allawi's cross-sectarian, but mostly Sunni, Nationalist Coalition. They won 21 seats; I think about 15 or 16 were Sunni. Allawi himself is Shia, but his key allies were Sunni. Then you've got Salih Al-Mutlak's Arab Coalition, which has 11 seats. There, they're closer to Maliki — they don't support Maliki per se, but they're willing to work with him.

    Finally, you've got another category: Maliki-aligned Sunnis, most of whom are basically bought and paid for or threatened. You've got people like like Saadoun al-Dulaimi, the acting Defense Minister, whose people are basically paid for. Then you've got some groups who've been forced to flip based on legal threats, based on crimes genuine or fabricated. Maliki will just sit on the criminal files until they become useful. That's what happened with [prominent Sunni politician] Jamal Al-Karbuli.

    These bribed and threatened politicians only represent an extremely, extremely limited portion of Sunni Iraq. They're a very, very small percentage — probably no more than those who support ISIS, frankly.

    ZB: So, given these wide sets of divisions inside the Sunni population, what does that tell you about the prospects for ISIS and the other Sunni insurgent groups to carve out a semi-autonomous state? Many people are saying they have the power to partition Iraq.

    KS: The insurgents can only win if they get the Shia to give up.

    The mainstream Sunnis are divided and extremely weak. The units that just dissolved when fighting the insurgency were heavily Sunni, and there was clearly some collaboration going on [between them and the insurgents].

    But if you have a Shia unit, highly motivated, they have huge advantages in hardware and numbers. They're going to sweep all before them. That doesn't mean they'll exterminate the insurgency, but they'll guarantee the insurgency can't control a region.

    Now, if they just keep fighting over two or three years, and the Shia just give up and just let them go, then sure.

    THE SUNNIS WILL SUFFER MORE FROM THIS THAN ANYONE

    But there's no money [in northwest Sunni Iraq]. All these provinces are dependent on Baghdad for their budgets. This is what held Iraq together all these years — it would have fallen apart years ago had it not been for this financial dependence. Anbar [an insurgent-contested Sunni province] is totally dependent; over 95 percent of their money comes from Baghdad. They got a little bit of money from customs when they controlled the [Syrian] border, but they don't even get that now. Ninevah [the insurgent-controlled province containing Mosul] is going to suffer a complete economic collapse.

    My point is that, in theory, the insurgents could just keep fighting until the Shias give up and form a region. But the regions they control are not viable entities. The Kurds would annex the north and northeastern parts of Ninevah. Most of the oil there is in the Kurdish controlled area or on the borderline already.

    And even if the insurgents had some oil, they couldn't develop it. They're able to make use of the Syrian oil infrastructure because it's already developed; but to the extent that there are oil reserves in the insurgent-controlled territory they're not developed. So there's nothing to sell.

    So in principle they could make their own state, but only if they'd be willing to starve. It'd be a permanent downward economic spiral — like Gaza, basically.

    ZB: Let's talk a little bit about the Kurds. So far, it seems like they're the winners of the crisis. They've managed to take Kirkuk, an oil-rich city, and have carved out this zone where they can pump even more oil than they've been able to pump before. Do you think that's accurate? And what is the Kurdish role going to look like in the crisis going forward?

    KS: Yes, that's completely accurate. Their role going forward will be the same it is now: they'll take actions that will serve their interests, but they're not going to go out and fight for the Arabs.

    And understandably so. Before this happened, Maliki was starving them out because of a dispute over the Kurds exporting oil to Turkey. In January, Maliki cut off their monthly payments. And they're almost as economically dependent on Baghdad as Anbar is.

    Maliki made half payments for January and February. Then for March, April, and May, he didn't make the payments because the Kurds wanted to export oil to Turkey without Baghdad's approval.

    So, coming in to this crisis, the Kurds were on the verge of insolvency. Like, complete insolvency. The only thing that kept them alive was that the Barzanis and the Talabanis [leading Kurdish families] have massive amounts of money stored back that they'd been stealing all of these years. They used it to keep the Kurdish region afloat, or at least pay the peshmerga [independent Kurdish militias].

    THIS CRISIS IS A LIFELINE FOR THE KURDS

    They've developed their economy on the sort-of Saudi or Emirati model of expanding the public sector based on oil income, because that maintains the support of the two major political parties: the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan. While that may work well politically, it doesn't work as an economic model. When Baghdad cuts off their money, they're in a hole.

    This crisis is a lifeline for the Kurds. Maybe they can get Baghdad to restore their payments, maybe they can't. If Baghdad doesn't restore their payments, they might as well declare independence right now. Now that they control Kirkuk, they can export the oil they control to Turkey. They don't yet have the infrastructure to replace what they were getting from Baghdad, so it would be rough for a year or two. But eventually they'd do OK. So they're really the big winners here.

    ZB: Can you explain what the Shia religious establishment's role in the Iraqi politics is and how they play in to this crisis?

    KS: Their role has not been as great as it was several year ago. Ali al-Sistani is the highest clerical authority, and he's sort of taken a step back. And there are other clerics, some of them are only semi-legit: Muqtada al-Sadr is really a politician, not a religious authority per se.

    ALI AL-SISTANI IS THE HIGHEST CLERICAL AUTHORITY, AND HE'S SORT OF TAKEN A STEP BACK

    Really it's Sistani and the clerical establishment in the city Najaf that matters. I don't view them as absolutely crucial. It is a big deal that Sistani's representative made a statement saying "we call on Iraqis to defend the country," but they were definitely going to do that. Now what's going to happen is that the Maliki government is going to make a reserve army that's all Shia. And then there's militias; there's going to be multiple parallel armies. That said, this all would have happened if Sistani said nothing.

    I should be clear that Sistani has always encouraged support of the national military, not militias. But nonetheless, this very general statement about taking up arms — different factions can use this statement to justify picking up guns.

    ZB: Is there anything really critical to understanding Iraqi politics that we haven't talked about yet?

    KS: Maliki was having a tough fight in his reelection campaign; it's hard to imagine he has any credibility at all after this complete disaster. Our assessment was already that the main challenge was already going to come from within his State of Law coalition. For all we know, there could already be an agreement on his replacement.

    None of this has been announced. The Shia leaders have not come out with a resolution yet, they want to get through this. But at this point, it's hard to see how Maliki survives this.

    One last thing. Look out for lots of sectarian cleansing in Baghdad.

    This is a real disaster for Sunnis. There are Sunnis cheering this, but it's really foolish. The Sunnis will suffer more from this than anyone. The Kurds will benefit, Iran will benefit, and the Shia will suffer but not as much. Life is going on in the Shia provinces; this crisis is not disrupting daily life in Karbala or Basra.


    The arrival of 100,000 young people wanting to volunteer for the Iraqi army...

    For those who are in Baghdad, it's a security threat — not that the insurgents will overturn Baghdad, but that the number of attacks in Baghdad will increase. The Sunnis will be further cleansed in Diyala and Baghdad, and to the extent that their areas fall out of government control, they will just go into absolute, total socio-economic ruin.

    http://www.vox.com/2014/6/15/5810262/who-are-major-iraqi-political-groups-kirk-sowell
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 17 Jun 2014, 19:35

    ...  What a Face 
    Now this may be the million dinarian question...

    Iraq Solidarity News tweet...
    https://twitter.com/iraqsolidarity/status/479035502272606210
    What, Exactly, Are U.S. Interests In Iraq's Turmoil?
    http://t.co/4rLvoyURpd
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 18 Jun 2014, 23:44

    ...  What a Face 



    10 Myths about the Crisis in Iraq

    The ongoing Iraq crisis has upended many assumptions about Iraq and US policy in the Arab East (al-mashriq) and Persian Gulf.  Unfortunately Western media reporting is filled with much erroneous information on the crisis.  

    Sectarian politicians, who seek to manipulate ethnoconfessional cleavages, contribute to this misinformation because it benefits their own interests.  Most Western journalists are dependent on these political elites for information.  Often unable to speak or read Arabic (or Kurdish), they cannot communicate with ordinary citizens and grasp the feelings of “the street.”

    To offset what I consider to be the misinformation on the current crisis in Iraq, I offer 10 myths about the crisis.  These myths not only distort the crisis but have the potential to lead policy-makers, both Iraqi and American, to implement to counter-productive policy outcomes.

    Myth # 1:  The crisis in Iraq is caused by sectarianism

    No argument is more flawed than the one that the Iraq crisis pits Sunnis and Shi’a against each other.  Emblematic of this misunderstanding is Wolf Blitzer’s recent assertion on CNN’s The Situation Room that, “Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq have hated each other and been engaged in violent conflict for centuries.”
     
    Rather than based in some visceral hatred between Sunni and Shi’i Arabs, this crisis is the result of destructive public policy implemented by Iraq’s sectarian entrepreneurs (tujjar al-ta’ifiya), especially Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.  In short, Maliki and large sectors of the political elite have used their power and access to oil wealth to promote a corrupt political system in which “divide and conquer” strategies are a core component of their political culture and rule.

    The stereotype of purported Sunni-Shi’i hatred is belied by even a superficial knowledge of modern Iraqi society and history.  Sunnis and Shi’is have a high rate of intermarriage (much higher than Whites and African-Americans, or Christians and Jews, in the United States) that, prior to the violence that beset Iraq between 2004 until 2008, reached 40% in some Iraqi cities such as Baghdad.

    Intermarriage takes place between Arabs and Kurds, Arabs and Turkmen, and among other ethnic and confessional groups in Iraq as well.  After 2003, intermarriage between Sunnis and Shi’a has continued, even if some parents discourage it, fearing that the rise in politically motivated sectarianism will prove dangerous to their offspring.

    In public opinion polls taken after 2003, sectarianism has hovered around 10% in terms of issues important to Iraqis.  In all polls, the two main concerns consistently have been employment and personal security.  To gain a “down to earth” feeling about sectarianism in Iraq, I highly recommend the film, Baghdad High (http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=5e0_1232315843 ), that was made by 4 Iraqi youth – Sunni, Shi’i, Kurd and Christian – who are studying for their comprehensive examinations at the end of high school.  This film, completed during the height of insurgent violence in 2006 and 2007, makes clear that sectarianism is not a core value of Iraqi society.

    If we look back at the Iraqi nationalist movement that was crushed by the first Ba’thist regime that came to power in February 1963, we see a long period of cooperation, that began with the June-October 1920 Revolution, that included all Iraq’s ethnoconfessional groups, including Shi’a, Sunnis, Kurds, Turkmen, Jews, Christians and other groups (for details, see my Memories of State: Politics, History and Collective Identity in Modern Iraq http://www.ucpress.edu/book.php?isbn=9780520235465 – English and Arabic editions; and Orit Bashkin’s, The Other Iraq: Pluralism and Culture in Hashemite Iraq).

    The Iraq crisis is all about money and power and the manipulation of identity politics.  Iraq’s sectarian entrepreneurs exploit the legacy of the 1990s UN sanctions regime that created distrust among Iraqis (See my articles:  “Sectarianism, Historical Memory and the Discourse of Othering:  The Mahdi Army, the Mafia, Camorra and ‘Ndrangheta” http://fas-polisci.rutgers.edu/davis/ARTICLES/DavisIraqItaly.31111.pdf ; and, “Islamism, Authoritarianism and Democracy: a Comparative Study of Egypt and Iraq”  http://fas-polisci.rutgers.edu/davis/ARTICLES/Iraq.pdf ).  

    After having suppressed a March 1991 uprising that almost brought down his regime, Saddam spent the rest of the 1990s and early 2000s trying to set Iraq’s different ethnoconfessional groups against one another in an effort to prop up his rule.

    Myth # 2:  Nuri al-Maliki can solve the current crisis

    Nuri al-Maliki is one of the main causes of the Iraq crisis, if not the main cause.  The two enablers in keeping him in power have been the US and Iran.  Although his State of Law Coalition did not win the 2010 parliamentary elections - won instead by the cross-ethnic al-Iraqiya Coalition – the US and Iran colluded with Maliki allowing him to gain a second term on very dubious constitutional-legal grounds.

    Since gaining a second term in 2010, Maliki has done everything he could to consolidate his power.  He removed the autonomy of the Independent High Electoral Commission and the Central Bank and intimidated the judiciary so they would vote according to wishes.  He has appointed commanders who are incompetent but who were either loyal to him or paid bribes to obtain their commissions.  

    Cabinet ministers receive their posts based on support for Maliki according to corrupt hierarchical calculus based on what a particular ministry can provide in terms of money, patronage and power (see my post: "The Iraqi elections: 10 reasons why Nuri al-Maliki will win the battle but ultimately lose the war." http://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-iraqi-elections-10-reasons-nuri-al.html).

    Maliki undermined the Anbar Awakening (Sahwat al-‘Iraq) that General David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker organized in 2006 and that played a key role in ridding al-Anbar Province of al-Qa’ida forces between 2006 and 2008.  Maliki promised to integrate 80,000 Sahwa members into the armed forces and police but subsequently reneged on his promise.

    Nuri al-Maliki has alienated all elements of the Iraqi political system to such an extent that his own Islamic Call Party (Hizb al-Da’wa al-Islamiya) asked him not to run for a third term last summer.

    Some of the most hostile criticism of Maliki has come from Iraq’s Shi’a, again belying the notion that the crisis is sectarian pitting Sunnis vs. Shi’a.  For example, Basra Province said it would not support Maliki unless he gave the province control of local oil production because he has not consulted, as required by the constitution, the Basra Provincial Council about oil concessions to foreign corporations.

    The southern provinces – all predominantly Shi’a - have bitterly criticized him for not dispersing needed revenues to the province for infrastructural needs such as improving the electric grid that is needed to provide more electricity.  This criticism has led surrounding provinces such as Misan and Dhi Qar to seek to form a semi-autonomous region with Basra that would give Maliki less control over the far south of Iraq.  The Shi’a here see Maliki and his allies in the shrine cities of al-Najaf and Karbala’ as trying to control the south’s oil wealth.

    Myth # 3:  There is no alternative to Nuri al-Maliki as Iraqi prime minister

    There is another false assumption.  Dr. Adel Abdel Mahdi, an economist who was president of Iraq from 2005 until 2011, and who previously served as finance minister, would be an excellent prime minister.  Trained in France, he is the son of a respected Shi’i cleric and a member of the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC) headed by Ammar al-Hakim, he has strong leadership credentials.
    To counter the argument that he is not a member of Maliki’s Islamic Call Party or his State of Law Coalition, a number of vice-prime ministers could be appointed to meet the concerns of other parties, including someone from the State of Law Coalition.  For example, Ayad Allawi, whose al-Iraqiya Coalition won 91 seats in the 2010 elections, could serve as a Vice-Prime Minister, as could Barham Salih who has served as Iraq’s vice-prime minster and KRG prime minister.  

    Husayn al-Sharastani, who has served as Maliki’s Minister of Oil, could represent the State of Law Coalition, also as a Vice-Prime Minister.  Finally, Masoud Barzani, currently the president of the KRG, could serve as president of Iraq, a position in which he has expressed interest.  Thus Barham Salih would represent one of the two main Kurdish parties, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and Barzani, the other main party, the Kurdish Democratic Party.

    Myth # 4:   Maliki should remain as prime minister because he won the 2014 elections

    Although the State of Law Coalition did win the largest number of votes in the April 2014 parliamentary elections, the results of the elections still have not been certified.  In any event, Maliki’s coalition did not win anything close to the number of seats needed to form a government.  Few parties want to give him their support in light of his highly divisive and authoritarian style of rule.

    The Arab and Iraqi press reported a number of irregularities in the elections.  First, many of the vote counters have close ties to the State of Law and the large parties.  Second, poll officials report the delivery of incorrect ballots to polling places that were meant for other areas of the country.  Finally, the fighting in Anbar meant that many Sunni Arabs were unable to vote.  There were reports that ballots meant to be used by refugees may have been used by other voters instead.  In short, Maliki’s State of Law did not win the elections in any decisive manner.

    Myth # 5:  US airstrikes represents a quick fix to the Iraq crisis

    Most military analysts argue that airstrikes are only as good as the intelligence on which they are based.  US airstrikes without the proper intelligence on the ground could actually work against Iraq and the US by creating significant collateral damage in civilian casualties and destruction of local infrastructure.


    Because ISIS fighters are skilled at urban warfare, and do not leave themselves open in mass formations or large daytime convoys, airstrikes could be useful at the margins but cannot substitute for “boots on the ground.”

    Myth # 6:  If the Iraqi army is ineffective, there is no alternative but to introduce US forces

    It is quite remarkable that, to date, little or nothing has been said about the more than 350,000 Peshmerga troops that guard the KRG.  The Peshmerga are hardened fighters and have special units trained specially for urban warfare.  Peshmerga forces could be very effective attacking ISIS in Mosul which is near the KRG border, just south of Dohuk.

    Turkish troops could also enter the battle in Syria behind ISIS lines.  Indeed, ISIS kidnapping of Turkish diplomats and truckers could be used to convene NATO and have the alliance convene a force to support Turkish troops.  Jordan possesses a small but well trained army that could contribute forces as well.  An international force would have much more legitimacy that US forces alone reentering Iraq, especially when US public opinion opposes American troops in Iraq by 2 to 1.

    Myth # 7:  Shi’i militias can provide a substitute for Iraq Army units that deserted in Mosul

    Apart from a few trained militias with combat experience, such as the League of the Righteous People (Asa’ib Ahl al-Haqq), the Shi’i militias that are proceeding to the Samarra/Diyala front are ill-trained.  Some fighters were already been killed in an ISIS ambush near Samarra.  Not only will these units provide little added value militarily, but they can interfere with the logistics of the Iraqi Army, thus creating more problems than they solve.  

    What mobilizing these militias does do is provide a national forum to prop up his support and popularity among Iraq’s Shi’a population.  Maliki has appeared on a number of occasions thus far in front of militia members exhorting them to do their national duty.  The policy of organizing Shi’i militias seems as much as political as military.  It also does not require Maliki to make the more politically undesirable decision to call upon help from other armed forces, such as the Peshmerga or the Turks, with whom he has had bad relations.

    Myth # 8:  Iran strongly supports Maliki and therefore will not allow him to leave office

    All indications are that Iran is hedging its bets in terms who it supports for prime minister and had been doing so before the current crisis developed.  Recent calls for Maliki to develop a more inclusive government representing all ethnoconfessional groups points to the fact that Iran is as worried as many Iraqis and foreign observers that Maliki’s sectarian policies preclude him from being an effective national leader in the future.

    Myth # 9:  If US troops had remained in Iraq after 2011, the crisis would not have developed

    One of the refrains of neo-conservative thinkers such as William Kristol, Robert Kagan and others and US senators such as John McCain and Lindsay Graham, is that the crisis was caused by the Obama administration.  Because the Obama administration refused to leave US troops in 2011, there was no impediment to ISIS forces successfully attacking Iraq.

    Even if, as John McCain claims, Nuri al-Maliki indicated in a private meeting with him, that he supported a residual force remaining in Iraq, McCain does not understand that nationalist pressures, especially from Maliki’s main nemesis at the time, the Sadrist Movement that had a strong presence in parliament, would have used any remaining troops as a rallying point to attack Maliki for being an “American puppet.”

    Allowing US troops to remain in Iraq beyond the date for their departure as specified by the SOFA would have undermined Maliki’s strongman image.  Maliki feared that it would have also given the Obama administration greater influence in Iraq to try and offset Maliki’s sectarian policies (although the Obama administration has never exerted the type of pressure on Maliki that it could have done given all the weapons and military training that it has provided to Iraq).

    Myth # 10:  The US has no right to exert influence on Iraqi politics

    The US does not have the right to tell Iraq who should be its rulers.  However, there is no reason that prevents the Obama administration from indicating to Iraq’s political class that it no longer supports Nuri al-Maliki in light of the sectarian and destructive policies he has pursued to date.

    Such a policy is not the same as telling the Iraqis who they should choose as prime minister.  It does let Maliki and his allies know that, given the military aid, military training and support for Iraq’s debt burden to Kuwait stemming from the 1991 Gulf War, the US is no longer going to prop up a regime that pursues policies that run counter to the Iraqi regional and American interests in the Middle East.

    POSTED BY ERIC DAVIS AT 10:49 PM  

    http://new-middle-east.blogspot.com/2014/06/10-myths-about-crisis-in-iraq.html
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 19 Jun 2014, 20:50

    ...  What a Face 
    noteworthy synopsis...
    ...worth the read and video clips...



    https://twitter.com/CNBCWorld/status/479785787345862656

    Iraq war: Here are the worst and best scenarios.
    http://t.co/34fB8gC7IR

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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Fri 20 Jun 2014, 09:19

    ...  What a Face 
    gb recommend: excellent non-guruian analysis on Sunni Shia issues...

    Kirk Sowell tweet...
    So in case you've not seen it, this is my interview on #Iraq last night with @loopcast by @cldaymon
    http://t.co/An6WevVHFx

    Kirk Sowell, Iraqi political risk analyst, attorney, historian, translator...
    http://about.me/kirksowell/
    http://www.uticensis.com
    https://www.facebook.com/kirk.sowell.1?fref=ts


    ...  What a Face 
    Iraq Solidarity News...
    Iraq crisis: Baghdad's Shia militia in defiant 50,000-strong rally as Isis make further gains
    http://t.co/OOzCybBiev
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Sat 21 Jun 2014, 22:41

    ...  What a Face 

    gb...for what its worth, it has always been my opinion that the process of Iraqi monetary reform will continue to progress regardless of the geopolitical (politics and economic geography) environment...Iraq (the CBI, IMF, WB and other involved entities) have chartered a course for this process and yes, it will be a long and winding road as we have already seen, but IMO, the destination has been laid out and is without doubt...we will all eventually get there...
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2092-iraqi-electionsnow-what
    (post #13)

    Enorrste..."I do not want to give the idea that I am a pessimist.  On the contrary, I believe that the CBI has a plan to bring the dinar into the world stage, as Turki recently stated, and that the election was one of the hurdles that had to be jumped over in the view of the CBI before he begins that process.  

    At the same time, however, the formation of a government will probably also be a factor in the eyes of the CBI.  They will wait until the dust has settled politically before they act, in my view.  

    Finally, the insurgency problem must be addressed as well.  The CBI has been on record for several years now that political stability and national security are to lynch-pins necessary before they will act (initiating monetary reform).  

    That being said, I really don't care who ends up PM so much as that it gets done quickly.  Similarly, I don't so much care who is running the government as long as they take action against the insurgency.  With Maliki we have a known commodity.  That can't be said of some "alliance" pasted together of Kurds, Sunnis, and some Shias.  I'm not saying it wouldn't work; I am just saying that an enemy you know might be better than the "friends" that you don't."


    Last edited by goodyboy on Thu 26 Jun 2014, 10:23; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 23 Jun 2014, 21:21

    from the iBeach...  What a Face 
    Vital interests…

    Kerry today vowed explicitly that the US intends to exercise "intense and sustained support" for Iraq and to see that the US "vital" interests in Iraq are respected…and at the real risk of sounding like a respectfully “vital” guru, I have some thoughts about this…

    …As a follow-up to the main post at the top of this thread, which I felt compelled to post just hours after the assault on Mosul, we have already seen multiple levels of responsivity as this acute proliferation of ISIS broke out in Iraq and became headlines.  We are seeing the cauldron of this chaos heat up more each day and in essence this is indeed forcing issues to surface and come to a proverbial head.  Maybe I was prophetic, maybe just lucky, but IMO, there is a clear and compelling reason that the response to this chaos, across multiple levels, has for the most part been swift and the response at various levels is rapidly intensifying even as we speak.  We need to ask ourselves why this level of response didn’t take place at the same pace in Syria, Afghanistan and other troubled geographic areas of terrorist induced vulnerability, but yet within days, the US, albeit tentative as to how to respond, has responded and is sending the strong message that we have “vital” interests that need to be respected (protected)…

    Well, other than oil and the metastasis of organized fanatical fundamentalist-based terrorism, just think about what other “vital” interest there may be…Why is Iraq so “vital” and what are the consequences if this chaos gets further out of control?  Beyond the clear and present danger to civil life as we know it, it doesn’t take an economic analyst to continue figuring this out…nobody is actually talking about this directly, but our dear dinar may be more “vital” than we realize…

    From a political perspective, which has real-time ramifications related to security and stability, it is “vital” that the new government be formed and seated sooner than later with the “vital” requirements of being more heterogeneous and inclusive of Sunni and Kurds, then have parliament address the “vital” issues associated with the budget so that it can be passed and implemented, and concurrently complete the process of the HCL and its “vital” implications for Erbil and Baghdad working together in unity to take Iraq’s “vital” oil industry and revenues to the next level…

    Finally, and even as this crisis unfolds, Iraqi monetary reform plods along with persistent focus on the “vital” prerequisites needed to complete this process of revaluing the dear dinar...the need to continue developing the economic (banking) infrastructure and amend and update “vital” laws to govern economic behavior and protect foreign investment.  And at the same time we continue to see evidence of the progression towards readiness...stockpiling of gold to bolster "vital" reserves, updating the integrity of the currency by reprinting new, more “vitally” needed counterfeit resistant currency, the CBI announcing that the “vital” reserves are safe and sound here, there and everywhere they are being secured and movement towards a transition into IMF article VIII to open up the market economy, initiate the float and introduce a "vital" international convertible currency…it sure seems as if it is "vital" that monetary reform not get lost in the ISIS shuffle...

    So, what does Kerry really know that we all know…maybe its all about “vital” interests…  What a Face 
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 01 Jul 2014, 14:05

    from the iBeach...  What a Face 
    "wars and rumors of wars..."

    What did we expect by taking a chance and investing in the worthless currency of a war-torn nation, rebuilding from the tyranny of a vicious dictatorship and with the roots of sectarian division going back almost to the ancient of days?  What were we thinking?  Well what we were thinking was dinarian dreams of wealth and means...and at the time of investment, we were all certainly obsessed with and seduced by the guruian hype that was so prevalent back then, yet continues to contaminate the expectations of investors, primarily in the US.  But, for better or worse, this fishnet of guruian hype is the reason many of us are here and this fishnet gathered in a hopium-laced host (even the most skeptical), to become investors in the IQD and so be it...

    ...but 'admittedly' times have changed...
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2100-admittedly
    ......and we must change our investment plans and expectations to be commensurate with the Babylonian reality that has surfaced in this fledgling democracy that is now reeling upon the brink of extinction and perhaps morphing into a tripartite government...we are now beyond the rumors of wars, that should have been predictable (it was waiting to happen) given the vulnerability created by the disunity of sectarianism and opportunistic evil...we are observing a post-modern war, as fanatical terrorism has infiltrated the fragile process of Iraqi reconstruction and its pursuit of monetary reform...

    ...the chaos is unfolding, but if we can all maintain even a greater measure of patience and let this shake down have its perfect work, we will see monetary reform re-emerge in the appointed time and take over the headlines...and it should be plainly obvious to any serious dinarian investor that there is no longer any need to insult fiscal intelligence by continuing to pay any attention to any self-proclaimed gurus and their unholy speculation, guesses and hilarious hunches...but it is time, now more than ever, to hunker down and wait this out with positivity and realistic anticipation...time to stay focused on the finish line...time to pray for the Iraqi people...time to doubt your doubts...time to stay lit...

    ...we are the dark horses... What a Face
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2144-the-final-fantasy
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 08 Jul 2014, 19:34

    ...  What a Face 
    Given the current crisis, it goes without saying that we need to keep our eye on what the CBI and especially foreign banks are doing in Iraq...this may be our only clue and barometer as to understanding the status of Iraqi monetary reform and where our investment may be headed in the near and distant future... http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2038-cbi-currency-and-auctions

    ...as Kap recently said, "the reality is, these banks came in 6-10 months ago with the plan to start investment rebuilding and participating in Iraq's market economy.  The monetary policy did not comply, they did not move to IMF Article VIII, they did not open the capital account nor did parlaiment pass any laws to support that stage.  It is old news.  So how long do you expect these banks to sit and do nothing?   Well, it appears 6 months to a year is about all they are willing to give Iraq.  You just cannot preserve your legacy by changing the value of the currency.  There is no (zero) cooperation going on right now.  Maliki cannot just impliment some monetary reform...1.  the IMF would not agree, 2.  the CBI is not in compliance, 3.  the laws to support the market economy are not passed.  If he did something stupid like try to raise the value of the dinar without a proper foundation, it would just fail."

    ...and as Kirk Sowell stated in his podcast, he believes Maliki would let "the house burn down."  I think it is pretty obvious he would (let it burn) in order to hold on to power...

    ...personally, I remain steadfast and resolute in the beliefs and decision-making process that I decided on at the time of investment ...but, the upcoming 2014 IMF Article IV Consultation should be revealing and may well be a marker in time that will necessitate revised decision making and perhaps recalibrating our short-term expectations about our dear dinar...



    WESTERN BANKS START TO PULL OUT OF IRAQ
    article posted on 7/7/2014 by butterfly...
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2168-july-7-2014

    Iraq, July 7, 2014

    The growing crisis in Iraq has forced western banks that launched themselves into the Iraqi market with gusto in recent years to tighten controls on clients’ funds and pull senior staff out of the country amid growing security concerns.

    Standard Chartered, which opened branches in Baghdad and Erbil in 2013, has moved the head of its Iraqi business and another British colleague to Dubai, from where they continue to oversee operations.

    The head of Citigroup’s representative office in Baghdad has moved to Amman in neighbouring Jordan. The US bank has also advised its multinational corporate clients to reduce the amount of cash they keep in Iraq to a minimum.

    Citigroup’s Iraqi operation is run by Dennis Flannery, a former financial attaché at the US embassy in Baghdad. When the US bank opened its office in Iraq last year, it said the move would allow it to benefit from an estimated $1tn of infrastructure spending in the country.

    The rapid advance of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, the group known as Isis , has already had consequences for the Iraqi economy and trade with its neighbours.

    Financiers said banks continue to operate in Mosul and other places where Isis has taken control, adding that foreign lenders continue to service their big multinational corporate clients in Iraq. “It is business as usual,” said one.

    But Isis fighters stole about $450m of cash and gold from Mosul’s central bank and other lenders in the northern Iraqi city last month and bankers said they were preparing for the situation to get worse.

    “We want to be prepared for any breakdown of the country’s banking system,” said one banker.

    StanChart has the biggest presence of any Western bank in Iraq. Nouri al-Maliki, prime minister of Iraq, inaugurated its first branch in Baghdad last November and it opened a second in Erbil a month later.

    The UK-listed emerging markets lender had planned to open a third branch in Basra by last month, but that has been put on hold. It employs 21 people in the country, focused on large companies in oil, telecoms and infrastructure.

    The local staff in StanChart’s Baghdad branch, situated in the city’s banking district on a street lined with blast walls and patrolled by armed guards, have been working from home recently for security reasons.

    Gavin Wishart, head of StanChart’s operation in Iraq, is still flying to the country from Dubai regularly. He said at a conference last year: “We see Iraq as a challenge, but something we can deal with,” adding that security measures “mitigated risk to a level that is acceptable” but were “time consuming and naturally expensive”.

    While Iraq has in recent years attracted a series of new investments from foreign banks others were already withdrawing before the most recent crisis.

    HSBC has cut its ties with Dar Es Salaam Investment Bank by suspending its correspondent banking relationship with the Iraqi lender in which it owns a 70 per cent stake.

    Last year, HSBC announced plans to sell the stake in Dar Es Salaam Investment Bank, but a person familiar with the situation said the sale had been delayed by a technical hitch in transferring the Baghdad-listed shares. HSBC declined to comment.

    http://iraqdailyjournal.com/story-z9379053





    A number of major banks to announce its withdrawal from Iraq
    7/8/2014



    Maliki during his attendance at the opening ceremony of Standard Chartered in Baghdad

    Pulled out a number of Western banks from Iraq after the deterioration of security the country has experienced recently because of the practices of Maliki's government.

    It has the bank, "Standard Chartered" - which opened two branches in Baghdad and Erbil - the transfer of its own in Iraq to Dubai. Transfer bank "Citigroup" representative office of Baghdad to the Jordanian capital Amman, as advised international companies process has reduced the level of cash (LNG), which retain them to a minimum, according to the newspaper "Financial Times" British. at the same time, he stressed workers in the banking sector banks in the city of Mosul, still working as usual despite rebel control them. were other banks have withdrawn from the Iraqi market before the outbreak of the recent crisis in Iraq, such as the Bank "HSBC", as it cut its relationship with Bank of Investment Dar es Salaam, by suspending its relationship banking with Bank of Iraq, which has 70 percent of its shares.

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    Occidental two banks withdrawing their staff from Iraq and transporting Vraehma to Dubai and Oman
    Mon Jul 07 2014 17:58 | (Voice of Iraq) - Twilight News

    Forced by the current crisis experienced by Iraq, Western banks that have established branches in the Iraqi market to tighten procedures for customer funds and the withdrawal of its senior staff amid growing security concerns.

     The station "Sky News" in the Arab news seen by "Twilight News" was the bank, "Standard Chartered", which opened two branches in Baghdad and Erbil, the transfer of its own in Iraq to Dubai.

    The bank opened branches in Iraq to take advantage of large infrastructure projects in the country, which is trying to rebuild itself after long years of wars, especially in the wake of rapid economic growth, thanks to the growth of Iraq's oil production.

     And the transfer of the bank, "Citigroup" representative office of Baghdad to the Jordanian capital Amman, as advised international companies process has reduced the level of cash (LNG) which keep them to a minimum, according to the newspaper "Financial Times" British.

    Although the organization "Daash" extend its control over large areas of Iraq, especially the western provinces of it, but the workers in the banking industry say that banks in the city of Mosul, still working as usual, as he continues international lenders offer their services for multinational companies in Iraq, pointing to the that business is going normally.

    The sources said that the organization "Daash" tightened his grip on the 450 million dollars and the gold stocks in the Iraqi Central Bank in Mosul last month, when they take control of the city, located north-west of Iraq, the banks and employees in the banking sector say they want to be prepared in case deteriorating conditions.

    The other banks have withdrawn from the Iraqi market before the outbreak of the recent crisis in Iraq, such as a bank, "HSBC", as it cut its relationship with Bank of Investment Dar es Salaam, by suspending its relationship banking with Bank of Iraq, which has 70 percent of its shares.

    Read more: http://www.sotaliraq.com/mobile-news.php?id=156689 # ixzz36nqJyZRs





    Experts are demanding the need to reassure foreign investors to stay in Iraq
    July 8, 2014 9:27

    Called on MPs and economists Iraqi politicians to the need to reassure foreign investors and owners of banks to stay in Iraq, and they continue to work through accelerating the formation of the government, stressing that the security situation is the controlling element of the work of international banks in Iraq. A member of the Finance Committee Hassan Suleiman Wahab in an interview for the "long", that "the economic transformation in the country is still in its early stages and did not significantly rooted so can be relied upon and make it an important tributary of the processes of reconstruction and building the future." According to the newspaper term

    He added that "the work of foreign banks in number little does not have a large influence on the daily operations of the Iraqi economy and the well-known Bmrkzih and influenced by the government in most of his joints." Said Wahab said that "political confusion and lack of forming a new government during the first session after the last legislative elections are all messages express the internal instability of the country, which makes foreign investors in constant fear lead to their escape to the outside. "and said the" turbulent economic situation is a reflection of the reality of political bemused and bad and it seems very clear to the Iraqi situation many years ago. "

    He pointed out that "the reason the largest in the volatility of financial in general as a result of failure to approve the general budget put the main lines and detailed to the economy of a fiscal year, causing blocking a lot of investment projects with foreign capital." For his part, said economic expert, the appearance of Mohammed Saleh in an interview for the "long , "" The security situation has become a component controlling the orientation of a large number of international banks with professional competence and financial work in the Iraqi market. "and added that" the beginning of this year saw a contention large number of foreign banks and Arabic to enter the Iraqi market because of their advantages and promising all joints and financial investment and others. "

    He said a former adviser to the central bank said that "the events of Mosul left a clear imprint on the overall economic process in the country has begun to show results through a reverse migration of most banks and foreign banks that favored Erbil or Amman center of Iraq and the capital Baghdad." He said, "Despite the impact is great caused by foreign banks on the domestic market but its impact will confuse the media outside the image with investors and other banks were intent on entering Iraq. "

    He stressed that "the process of the withdrawal of some foreign banks to provinces such as Erbil and Sulaymaniyah does not necessarily mean the withdrawal of its investments in its final form it is a change of tactic because it is in the overall market one Iraqi." And pointed out that "the commercial market and financial relies primarily the basis of the information which represents an important pillar to extrapolate what happen from changes that may affect the work of the Economic and Financial banks of foreign investment. "and noted the benefit that" financial companies fast-moving as well-known for it's sensitive to any disturbance security or political sudden it maneuvered in several directions without causing financial losses grave. "

    In turn, the economic expert Maytham defect "long", that "the economic situation of the country to Aabashr okay but on the contrary in the decline of large and as a result of the deterioration of the security aspect in the space mission from the map national." And added that "the work of Almassarpf foreign depends on the strategic plans close and several term qualify them to take action commensurate with any economic development or security may happen. "He defect that" banks are considered the foundation of any economic movement so it is necessary to provide guarantees to the crisis, financial companies and banking

    To continue to invest the money in the market Ornament of the country. "And that" the withdrawal of banks Alajneph carries with it a negative impact many of the most important loss of important investment projects help build and develop the infrastructure of the country in addition to wasting job opportunities for hundreds of individuals. "And pointed out that" the Iraqi banking system suffers obsolescence of a large led to limited banking on remittances import without the introduction of savings to individuals and companies as in regional banks, including the Lebanese. "

    The news reports have confirmed on Monday that the bank "Standard Chartered", which opened two branches in Baghdad and Erbil, the transfer of its own in Iraq to Dubai. Was the bank opened branches in Iraq to take advantage of large infrastructure projects in the country, which is trying to rebuild itself after the war long years, especially in the wake of rapid economic growth in Iraq, thanks to the growth of oil production. while the transfer of the bank, "Citigroup" representative office of Baghdad to the Jordanian capital Amman, as advised international companies process has reduced the level of cash (LNG) which keep them to a minimum, as The newspaper "Financial Times" British.

    While the organization of the Islamic State extend its control over large areas in the western provinces, Mosul, but the workers in the banking industry say that banks in the city of Mosul, still working as usual, as he continues international lenders offer their services for multinational companies in Iraq, pointing out that the business is going naturally. While sources said that the organization Daash tightened his grip on the 450 million dollars and the gold stocks in the Iraqi Central Bank in Mosul last month, when they take control of the city, located north-west of Iraq, the banks and employees in the banking sector say they want to be prepared in case deteriorating conditions.

    The other banks have withdrawn from the Iraqi market before the outbreak of the recent crisis in Iraq, such as a bank, "HSBC", as it cut its relationship with Bank of Investment Dar es Salaam, by suspending its relationship banking with Bank of Iraq, which owns 70 percent of shares

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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 10 Jul 2014, 10:33

    ...  What a Face 

    Iraqi Dinar's Revaluation and the Current Law and Economic State of Iraq
    7/8/2014


    (MENAFN Press) (EMAILWIRE.COM, July 08, 2014 ) Hartford, CA -- For years, people in and outside of Iraq have been excited about the revaluation of Iraqi dinar. But what is the real state of Iraqi dinar? Will they ever mature so that its investors can convert their investments? Is there hope amidst the country being in hot water now facing law and order and economic crisis?

    Iraq's major economic gauge and main source of crude oil are facing major perils as of the present. Baji oil refinery which is the largest oil refinery in Iraq are about to be taken control of by the militants.

    However, Iraq security forces are in the process of getting the control back. What is notable though is that the oil refineries of Iraq are operating vastly in the southern part of Iraq, while Baiji is in the northern part which is currently having disagreement with Kurdistan regional government. This fact attests that Iraq's oil industry is not being hijacked at all by the rebels. The issue about Baiji oil refinery does not gravely pose a threat to Iraq's economy. Therefore the Iraqi dinar's value in both local and international markets are not at all in hazard.

    Abdul Basit Turky, Central Bank of Iraq's Governor, stated in his press release that The economy of Iraq is fully stable and does not have any serious harm that may destroy the overall economy of Iraq. He said it is temporary instability in the law and order situation that Iraqi security forces will overcome very soon and people will see the old Iraq very soon. Moreover he said that Iraq has 70 billion as cash reserve at central bank of Iraq that is enough to support their currency for a longer period of time, even if the situation remained at same condition. Iraq purchased gold ingots as gold reserves that enhanced the gold reserves of Iraq three times in the international market.

    The gold reserves are enough proof that Iraqi dinar has its success place in the market and that the currency is not to lose its market price. Foreign investors should also be confident about their investments amidst the current law and order state of the country. Whatever internal issue Iraq is having right now, the governor assured that Iraq's economy will recover and it wouldn't take that long before it regains its market value.

    Iraq's Central Bank plays a significant role in the overall situation of Iraq and it is prepared to allow trusteeship for Iraq's commercial bank's dealings and operations with both local and international companies. Investors locally and internationally should feel secured that any operational gaffe of any commercial bank under the legal responsibilities of Central Bank will be compensated by CB.

    Investor confidence, as a very important factor in maintaining the stability of Iraq's currency, continues to interest foreign investors. Iraqi dinar's value has an elastic state in the international market showing great strength adding the fact that Iraq's Central Bank has constructive policies.

    Taking into consideration the current state of Iraq and of its economy, the question of the viability of Iraqi dinar's revaluation is something that everyone is concerned about. Iraq's state may be in a bit of a haze right now. But its leaders are positive that soon, their country's political and law order situation will be stabilized. And yes, revaluation of Iraqi dinar is on its way as well.

    http://www.menafn.com/1093878277/Iraqi-Dinars-Revaluation-and-the-Current-Law-and-Economic-State-of-Iraq
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 15 Jul 2014, 19:10

    ...  What a Face 



    We are seeing creative forces having their way, probably obscured from the natural mind, and more than likely obscured from guruian minds and their regurgitated gobbldygook...
    ...and we are seeing the refinement of this investment, in spite of the chaos...we are seeing the blur of progress right before our weary forum board eyes...can you see it?
    ......we are seeing if we have eyes to see...

    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2038p50-cbi-currency-and-auctions#32694


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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 29 Jul 2014, 18:53

    ...  What a Face 
    I say we just relax and let the creative forces have their way...
    ...we may need to deal with more malarki and we may not, but Iraqi currency reform is not entirely dependent on this seemingly pertinacious political phenomena...


    Iraq Solidarity News...



    The Iraq Enigma: Urgency Subsides, But Danger Persists - Wall Street Journal (blog)
    http://t.co/iUq1G8UQq5

    perhaps a key clue to the timeline of our investment...
    "...U.S. officials have signaled that the U.S. isn’t going to take further action in Iraq until a new government—one not lead by current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki—is in place..."

    read more:
    http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/07/29/the-iraq-enigma-urgency-subsides-but-danger-persists/
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 07 Aug 2014, 11:56

    from the iBeach...  What a Face 
    we need a paradigm shift and in simple, child-like faith, believe for the impossible...
    ...for dinarians, we should be good at this by now...




    New Babylonia ‏@New_Babylonia  
    @IraqSurveys: "one solution is give up this belief in violence and stop hating others."  
    @UticensisRisk (Kirk Sowell)

    https://twitter.com/New_Babylonia/status/497384620053524482

    ...  What a Face 
    perfect love casts out fear...

    Iraqsolidarity: Fear is key in the Islamic State's purge of Iraq
    http://t.co/BTDMZtBOLi



    ...  What a Face 
    please see:
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2108-call-of-dutythe-isis#33759


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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Sat 09 Aug 2014, 10:09

    ...  What a Face 
    If you have eyes to see, see the creative forces cracking open like a proverbial egg, with 'unprecedented' life coming forth from the chaos...

    Iraq Solidarity News...
    'Islamic State’ yields (is forcing) unprecedented Iraqi-Kurdish alliance
    http://t.co/xu9toCv6pM


    Obama: Iraqis Must Unite to Face Extremists
    http://on.wsj.com/1oQ2uhw

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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 12 Aug 2014, 09:12

    goodyboy wrote:...  What a Face 
    If you have eyes to see, see the creative forces cracking open like a proverbial egg, with 'unprecedented' life coming forth from the chaos...


    Iraq Update Live @ IraqLiveUpdate
    8/12/2014

    Iraq PM-elect @ HaiderAlAbadi : "I call all Political Forces with a heart filled of hope, open mind & hands extended to build National Vision."
    Iraqi  # Sunnis & # Kurds confirm 'Confidence' in @ HaiderAlAbadi 's Ability to form an inclusive Government.
    Iraq PM-elect @ HaiderAlAbadi : "We seek guidance from Marjiya (ie Ayatollah Sistani) & his wisdom Whose brave Role Defended ALL Iraqis."

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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Sat 16 Aug 2014, 18:09

    ...  What a Face
    refreshing, perhaps even creative words of wisdom spoken into the atmosphere of a caliphate of chaos...
    ...we can pray over these words and hope they are prophetic...


     
    Haider Al-Abadi tweets...  
    "My deep & heartfelt gratitude for your kind sentiments & support. The road ahead is not one paved with roses; a difficult journey lies ahead..."
    "Challenges we face are immense but we will overcome them by uniting.  Raging storms may be ahead but we will face them together as one nation..."

    "I will not make unrealistic promises but will pledge my commitment, my dedication & my utmost to serving our nation.  I will spend my life in protecting & defending our homeland & will remain true to the values for which we have sacrificed so much already.  I will stand with the persecuted against oppressors & be the voice of the weak & destitute.  Lord take us not to task should we forget or err..."



    for cross reference reality check also see post #38, link below...  What a Face 
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t1970-if-we-just-step-back
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 08 Sep 2014, 22:00

    ... What a Face

    It's becoming ever so clear now that security and stability is going to be the priority for the new GOI so Iraq can move forward economically and transition into a market economy in the near future...the chaos of terrorism that Iraq faces is giving birth to a movement of new international unity that is just beginning to coalesce (and an international coalition may well be forming) and come into play, which interestingly enough, also may well parallel a renewed surge of Iraqi patriotism that we could be witnessing with the formation of the new GOI...it is noteworthy that despite threats of Sunni and Kurdish boycotts, many deputies for both communities likely voted for the new Iraqi government.  And what a change for Iraq's Maliki. He is moving from strongman PM to vice president with virtually no power...This entire process represents a milestone for Iraq and perhaps a pivotal moment in Iraq's history...

    ...I believe we are seeng the end of an impossible era of malarki...an era with a polluted atmosphere of impossibility for any appreciable, coordinated efforts towards economic reform...and the birth of an era of possibility...possibility built on a new cornerstone, which can now, finally provide the geopolitical firmament for plausible economic reform...we can expect to see a new force of creativity being exhibited by the GOI with the budget, economic laws, banking, HCL, and a new level of cooperation with the CBI, along with the US, IMF, UN, WB and other interested entities coming back into focus from hibernation and back into the forefront of re-assisting this fledgling democracy in its continued progression, but now, thankfully, even further removed from the vestiges of the bygones of a malarkian malady...

    ...time now for the new abode of Abadian believability...and let's hope that we are all dream believers too...


    Last edited by goodyboy on Sun 19 Oct 2014, 16:39; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Sun 19 Oct 2014, 11:16

    goodyboy wrote:...from 9/8/2104 What a Face

    It's becoming ever so clear now that security and stability is going to be the priority for the new GOI so Iraq can move forward economically and transition into a market economy in the near future...the chaos of terrorism that Iraq faces is giving birth to a movement of new international unity that is just beginning to coalesce (and an international coalition may well be forming) and come into play, which interestingly enough, also may well parallel a renewed surge of Iraqi patriotism that we could be witnessing with the formation of the new GOI...it is noteworthy that despite threats of Sunni and Kurdish boycotts, many deputies for both communities likely voted for the new Iraqi government.  And what a change for Iraq's Maliki. He is moving from strongman PM to vice president with virtually no power...This entire process represents a milestone for Iraq and perhaps a pivotal moment in Iraq's history...

    ...I believe we are seeng the end of an impossible era of malarki...an era with a polluted atmosphere of impossibility for any appreciable, coordinated efforts towards economic reform...and the birth of an era of possibility...possibility built on a new cornerstone, which can now, finally provide the geopolitical firmament for plausible economic reform...we can expect to see a new force of creativity being exhibited by the GOI with the budget, economic laws, banking, HCL, and a new level of cooperation with the CBI, along with the US, IMF, UN, WB and other interested entities coming back into focus from hibernation and back into the forefront of re-assisting this fledgling democracy in its continued progression, but now, thankfully, even further removed from the vestiges of the bygones of a malarkian malady...

    ...time now for the new abode of Abadian believability...and let's hope that we are all dream believers too...


    from the iBeach...
    ...groovin on a Sunday... What a Face
    ...thanks butterfly for the article...

    We are often exposed to a deluge of Iraqi news and it's easy to simply scroll superficially past an article and miss subtle but perhaps significant activity that may have major ramifications for our investment.  After you digest what this article is actually saying, just think about it.  

    And being careful not to read too much into this, I wonder if the UN has been strategizing behind the scenes, but has now made the decision to come out and coordinate a new wave of international support, above and beyond the military coalition, strategically aimed at assisting Iraq in the transition to an open market economy?  In other words, the entire international community stands to benefit when we get by with a little help from our friends...




    butterfly wrote:   إرسل الموضوع الى صديق

    Mobilizing international support (for) Iraq's economy




    10/19/2014 0:00

    A contingency plan for the provinces facing security problems...

    Mustafa al-Hashemi has now (given) Iraq international attention regarding the need for support in the face of Iraq's economic challenges as exemplified by the announcement from UNDP United Nations (regarding) the idea of holding an international conference aimed at mobilizing international economic support to compensate Iraq for serious damages suffered due to the security situation.  In this regard, a spokesman for the Ministry of Planning Abdul-Zahra al-Hindawi said: UNDP UN asked (suggested) several days ago, the idea of launching a conference to gather international crowd (assistance) along the lines of the Madrid Conference in 2004, for the purpose of supporting Iraq on the economic side, along the lines of an international (coalition) supporting Iraq politically and (assisting with) security, pointing out that the holding of such a conference would help Iraq to face the economic challenges and overcome them.

    The Ministry of Planning said in a statement that supporting these efforts (should) be considered regarding the aspect of development for such a conference, in that it will give an additional incentive to the economy of Iraq.  He explained that the UNDP United Nations has not yet determined a date for the holding of such a conference, hoping to hold it at the earliest.  In turn, economic (expert) d. Raed Fahmi pointed out the importance of UNDP United Nations, which adopted the idea of the call to mobilize international support for Iraq economically in these circumstances by saying that this call comes out in a difficult situation and the significant challenges facing Iraq in the forefront of the (terrorist) attacks, which represents schemes of "Daash" and they have caused major crimes, stopping the wheel of development in a number of provinces.

    Fahmi told (morning) that this call out comes as part of the obligations of the international community in its commitment to provide global support for Iraq in the face of international terrorism, which Ejodah.mhira that the phase that the country is in requires the presence of this support, which will help one way or another in the elimination of Alarhab.obin (the enemy) and the necessity of holding this conference has coincided with the conditions of the economic pressure on the Iraqi situation, including the decline in oil prices, higher expenses related to military operations and the disruption of economic activities in the areas ravaged by the organization "Daash" and the implications of the security situation on the overall economic life.

    And Al-Hindawi said regarding the recent IMF report, which predicted a contraction (shrinkage) in the economy of Iraq during the five-year plan for the years 2013-2017, even though the IMF had initially forecasted annual growth in Iraq beyond the 10 percent to 12 percent...but given the circumstances experienced by Iraq since the beginning of this year, along with stoppage or decline of production in certain governorates thereby affecting growth rates, this is now contrary to the initial IMF estimates that came about in large part based on what was logical and realistic at the time, adding that the report was prepared in real time (as it was before Daash), as well as having a high probability of the return of normal life to the more volatile provinces sooner than has been the case.  Hindawi said there has been a continuation of the ministry to implement a contingency plan for the provinces that have faced security problems after the stabilization of the situation, which is divided into two parts:  the first with the development of projects and the other in terms of compensation for those affected by the security situation.  This represents reports issued by organizations and economic institutions in Iraq, to be as a benchmark for foreign investors and companies, but it may not be as precise to the extent that it can be relied upon because of the absence of the credit rating of Iraq from known international rating agencies.

    Hindawi said: to get Iraq's credit rating will give a more accurate report issued by international economic institutions instead of adopting (a fiscal barometer) from other sources, pointing to the need for Iraq to be given the credit rating as soon as possible because this is what will gives an incentive for local banks opening up more to their global counterparts and the credit rating agencies of the three, the Standard & Poor's, and Moody's and Fitch in general provide risk assessment related versions religions (based on systematic beliefs), whether for companies or governments...

    The ability of the source (country) to meet the payment of debt interest and premiums incurred by him is the most important indicator of creditworthiness upon which to build classifications by these agencies. Also the credit rating GCR, an acronym for (global credit rating) as a measure to assess the possibility of the borrower to meet its obligations in the face of lenders or In other words, the risk of non-payment of the lender (the source of the bond) to meet its obligations (the value of the loan and interest) to the borrower (bondholder).  

    And again d. Raed Fahmi pointed out the importance of UNDP United Nations, who (need to) embrace the idea of the call to mobilize international support for Iraq economically in these (current) circumstances by saying that this call comes at a most difficult time and there are significant challenges facing Iraq in the forefront of the terrorist attacks, which represent schemes by Daash that have caused major crimes and stopped the wheel of development in a number of crucial aspects.  This invitation comes as part of the obligations of the international community and its commitment to provide global support for Iraq in the face of international terrorism, which given the phase that the country is in, requires the presence of this support, which will help in the elimination of terrorism.

    He stressed the necessity of holding this conference coincident with the conditions of the economic pressure on the Iraqi situation, including the decline in oil prices and higher expenses related to military operations and the disruption of economic activities in the areas ravaged by Daash and the implications of the security situation on the overall economic life.


    Last edited by goodyboy on Tue 21 Oct 2014, 11:03; edited 13 times in total (Reason for editing : translation edits applied...)
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Sat 25 Oct 2014, 17:33

    goodyboy wrote:
    goodyboy wrote:...from 9/8/2104 What a Face

    It's becoming ever so clear now that security and stability is going to be the priority for the new GOI so Iraq can move forward economically and transition into a market economy in the near future...the chaos of terrorism that Iraq faces is giving birth to a movement of new international unity that is just beginning to coalesce (and an international coalition may well be forming) and come into play, which interestingly enough, also may well parallel a renewed surge of Iraqi patriotism that we could be witnessing with the formation of the new GOI...it is noteworthy that despite threats of Sunni and Kurdish boycotts, many deputies for both communities likely voted for the new Iraqi government.  And what a change for Iraq's Maliki. He is moving from strongman PM to vice president with virtually no power...This entire process represents a milestone for Iraq and perhaps a pivotal moment in Iraq's history...

    ...I believe we are seeng the end of an impossible era of malarki...an era with a polluted atmosphere of impossibility for any appreciable, coordinated efforts towards economic reform...and the birth of an era of possibility...possibility built on a new cornerstone, which can now, finally provide the geopolitical firmament for plausible economic reform...we can expect to see a new force of creativity being exhibited by the GOI with the budget, economic laws, banking, HCL, and a new level of cooperation with the CBI, along with the US, IMF, UN, WB and other interested entities coming back into focus from hibernation and back into the forefront of re-assisting this fledgling democracy in its continued progression, but now, thankfully, even further removed from the vestiges of the bygones of a malarkian malady...

    ...time now for the new abode of Abadian believability...and let's hope that we are all dream believers too...


    from the iBeach...
    ...groovin on a Sunday... What a Face
    ...thanks butterfly for the article...

    We are often exposed to a deluge of Iraqi news and it's easy to simply scroll superficially past an article and miss subtle but perhaps significant activity that may have major ramifications for our investment.  After you digest what this article is actually saying, just think about it.  

    And being careful not to read too much into this, I wonder if the UN has been strategizing behind the scenes, but has now made the decision to come out and coordinate a new wave of international support, above and beyond the military coalition, strategically aimed at assisting Iraq in the transition to an open market economy?  In other words, the entire international community stands to benefit when we get by with a little help from our friends...



    butterfly wrote:   إرسل الموضوع الى صديق

    Mobilizing international support (for) Iraq's economy




    10/19/2014 0:00

    A contingency plan for the provinces facing security problems...

    Mustafa al-Hashemi has now (given) Iraq international attention regarding the need for support in the face of Iraq's economic challenges as exemplified by the announcement from UNDP United Nations (regarding) the idea of holding an international conference aimed at mobilizing international economic support to compensate Iraq for serious damages suffered due to the security situation.  In this regard, a spokesman for the Ministry of Planning Abdul-Zahra al-Hindawi said: UNDP UN asked (suggested) several days ago, the idea of launching a conference to gather international crowd (assistance) along the lines of the Madrid Conference in 2004, for the purpose of supporting Iraq on the economic side, along the lines of an international (coalition) supporting Iraq politically and (assisting with) security, pointing out that the holding of such a conference would help Iraq to face the economic challenges and overcome them.

    The Ministry of Planning said in a statement that supporting these efforts (should) be considered regarding the aspect of development for such a conference, in that it will give an additional incentive to the economy of Iraq.  He explained that the UNDP United Nations has not yet determined a date for the holding of such a conference, hoping to hold it at the earliest.  In turn, economic (expert) d. Raed Fahmi pointed out the importance of UNDP United Nations, which adopted the idea of the call to mobilize international support for Iraq economically in these circumstances by saying that this call comes out in a difficult situation and the significant challenges facing Iraq in the forefront of the (terrorist) attacks, which represents schemes of "Daash" and they have caused major crimes, stopping the wheel of development in a number of provinces.

    Fahmi told (morning) that this call out comes as part of the obligations of the international community in its commitment to provide global support for Iraq in the face of international terrorism, which Ejodah.mhira that the phase that the country is in requires the presence of this support, which will help one way or another in the elimination of Alarhab.obin (the enemy) and the necessity of holding this conference has coincided with the conditions of the economic pressure on the Iraqi situation, including the decline in oil prices, higher expenses related to military operations and the disruption of economic activities in the areas ravaged by the organization "Daash" and the implications of the security situation on the overall economic life.

    And Al-Hindawi said regarding the recent IMF report, which predicted a contraction (shrinkage) in the economy of Iraq during the five-year plan for the years 2013-2017, even though the IMF had initially forecasted annual growth in Iraq beyond the 10 percent to 12 percent...but given the circumstances experienced by Iraq since the beginning of this year, along with stoppage or decline of production in certain governorates thereby affecting growth rates, this is now contrary to the initial IMF estimates that came about in large part based on what was logical and realistic at the time, adding that the report was prepared in real time (as it was before Daash), as well as having a high probability of the return of normal life to the more volatile provinces sooner than has been the case.  Hindawi said there has been a continuation of the ministry to implement a contingency plan for the provinces that have faced security problems after the stabilization of the situation, which is divided into two parts:  the first with the development of projects and the other in terms of compensation for those affected by the security situation.  This represents reports issued by organizations and economic institutions in Iraq, to be as a benchmark for foreign investors and companies, but it may not be as precise to the extent that it can be relied upon because of the absence of the credit rating of Iraq from known international rating agencies.

    Hindawi said: to get Iraq's credit rating will give a more accurate report issued by international economic institutions instead of adopting (a fiscal barometer) from other sources, pointing to the need for Iraq to be given the credit rating as soon as possible because this is what will gives an incentive for local banks opening up more to their global counterparts and the credit rating agencies of the three, the Standard & Poor's, and Moody's and Fitch in general provide risk assessment related versions religions (based on systematic beliefs), whether for companies or governments...

    The ability of the source (country) to meet the payment of debt interest and premiums incurred by him is the most important indicator of creditworthiness upon which to build classifications by these agencies. Also the known credit rating GCR, an acronym for (global credit rating) as a measure to assess the possibility of the borrower to meet its obligations in the face of lenders or In other words, the risk of non-payment of the lender (the source of the bond) to meet its obligations (the value of the loan and interest) to the borrower (bondholder).  

    And again d. Raed Fahmi pointed out the importance of UNDP United Nations, who (need to) embrace the idea of the call to mobilize international support for Iraq economically in these (current) circumstances by saying that this call comes at a most difficult time and there are significant challenges facing Iraq in the forefront of the terrorist attacks, which represent schemes by Daash that have caused major crimes and stopped the wheel of development in a number of crucial aspects.  This invitation comes as part of the obligations of the international community and its commitment to provide global support for Iraq in the face of international terrorism, which given the phase that the country is in, requires the presence of this support, which will help in the elimination of terrorism.

    He stressed the necessity of holding this conference coincident with the conditions of the economic pressure on the Iraqi situation, including the decline in oil prices and higher expenses related to military operations and the disruption of economic activities in the areas ravaged by Daash and the implications of the security situation on the overall economic life.


    from the iBeach (here in the Bermuda high)... What a Face
    ...from lil sister (communique with the man: 'she's not a girl who misses much...')...

    Quotes, questions and quotes from Kapistan...
    "Known credit rating GCR, which is an acronym for (global credit rating)."  This is probably where gurus got the term GCR and made up global currency reset.   lmbo.

    Important to note...why have a global credit rating if your dinar is not convertible?   This is an important step IMO before the CBI accepts IMF Article VIII.

    Iraq's monetary policy is under IMF Article XIV and a closed currency board (IMF calls this transitional).  This is common (place) for developing economies while they learn about monetary policy, controls etc.  Until they get approval to leave and move to Article VIII and a new Exchange Regime (some kind of float), don't expect any significant change in value.

    ... What a Face
    chaos, what chaos?
    ...for chaotic cross reference re IMF Article VIII, also see post #13, link below

    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2065-the-imf-cbi-and-transition-to-a-market-economy
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 25 Jun 2015, 20:29

    from the iBeach...  What a Face
    Can Iraq be Saved?
    6/25/2015

    'Yes' says the British adviser to the former top U.S. general. But not with the current incomplete and self-defeating ‘strategy.’
    President Obama recently admitted that “We don’t have a complete strategy” for dealing with the Islamic State. It was an honest admission. And honesty has not been in abundance when it comes to Iraq policy. Politicians try to use the situation in Iraq for political advantage, without much consideration of Iraqis themselves. Democrats blame Republicans for invading Iraq in the first place and Republicans blame Democrats for not leaving troops there. The current extent of the debate in Washington appears limited to whether or not to send troops back to Iraq.

    But numbers of boots on the ground is not a strategy. Strategy should be about how to achieve a political settlement. And increasing the commitment of U.S. military support to Iraq should only be as part of a strategy to achieving such an outcome—not as an ends in itself.

    When I served as the senior civilian in Kirkuk in 2003-2004, I focused primarily on building relationships with the different groups, helping them understand each other’s fears and hopes, mediating between them, and nudging them closer together. I was able to play such a role because I worked closely with, and was fully supported by, the U.S. military. The brigade commander and myself both realized that it was politics that drove instability in the province, and that to keep the situation calm we needed to balance the different groups.

    During the surge, when I served as the political adviser to General Ray Odierno, the then operational commander of Multi-National Forces-Iraq, I observed U.S. soldiers on the ground pacifying their areas of operation by protecting the population, reaching out to insurgents, brokering ceasefires, and carefully targeting those who were irreconcilable. It was the psychological impact of the surge that was the critical factor. We transformed our mindset and our approach—and this created the incentives for a change in the strategic calculus of different Iraqi groups which led to the dramatic decline in violence from 2007-2009. The U.S. played the role of “balancer,” moderator, and protector of the political process, holding the “center” ground and bringing everyone closer together. And our strategy—inherently political in nature—was underpinned by military force.

    Regrettably, the U.S. gave up this role in the rush for the exit. We did not transition from a military-led to a civilian-led relationship with Iraq. Rather, all our messaging was about ending the war in Iraq, and we gave up our soft power as we withdrew our hard.

    From my time in Iraq, I learned that violence stems from the competition for power among different groups in the absence of agreed rules of the game and effective institutions. After the invasion, we collapsed the state with our policies of broad de-Baathification and dissolving all the security forces leading to civil war. The new governance structure that we introduced institutionalized sectarianism and undermined the potential to strengthen Iraqi national identity.

    I observed the unintended consequences both of President Bush’s efforts to impose democracy and of President Obama’s detachment, of action as well as non-action. I saw the limitations of U.S. power, but also where it was that we could have influence.

    It is Iraq’s politics that are the problem. With the same political elites, who have been in power for over a decade, not capable of reaching agreement on what the “nation” is, it is very difficult to build up an effective “national” army. As we have seen, we can give the Iraqi army lots of equipment and training but we are not able to address the psychology and morale of the force—and its willingness to fight—in such a deeply contested and corrupt environment. It is about leadership. But some of the key officers we invested in were purged following the withdrawal of U.S. forces, replaced by others who used their positions to enrich themselves with the money that was supposed to supply the soldiers with food and ammunition.

    The situation in Iraq today is increasingly complex as communities that have lived together mostly peacefully through the centuries have become polarized and pitted against each other.

    Regional sectarian conflict is an unintended consequence of the Iraq war (and the way in which we departed Iraq), which left the state weak and altered the balance of power in the region in Iran’s favor. Geopolitical competition between Iran on the one hand, and Gulf state and Turkey on the other, led to their support for sectarian extremists turning local grievances over poor governance into regional proxy wars.

    Military successes against ISIS by the Iraqi army, Shia militia and the U.S.-led coalition will not be sustainable, and will not prevent the son-of-ISIS arising in the future, if the very conditions that allowed for the rise of ISIS are not addressed. It was the sense of Sunni alienation and humiliation (further exacerbated by former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s sectarian policies), the corrupt elites who extract the resources of the state for their own interests, and the growing Iranian influence, that led many Sunnis, who had previously fought and contained al-Qaeda in Iraq, ISIS’s predecessor, to decide ISIS was the lesser of two evils.

    ISIS can only really be defeated by Iraq’s Sunnis. But Iraq’s domestic politics today make it very difficult to persuade and empower Sunnis to fight ISIS. Unfortunately, some Iraqis are taking advantage of the rise of ISIS to gain land, property, and wealth. While Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi may have the will to bring Sunnis on board, he does not have the capacity. He is hampered by Shia militias who are fearful that weapons given to the Sunnis will be used against the Shia; and by the lack of credible Sunni leaders.

    So what can and should the U.S. do?

    In previous years, the U.S. was in the position to try to balance the competing factions inside Iraq. Today, the U.S. should consider a regional approach, working from the outside in. The best hope for putting Iraq on a more positive trajectory is for Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to agree on how to deal with ISIS, and what a post-ISIS Iraq should look like. They would then need to cajole Iraqi elites, over whom they have massive influence, into accepting confederation with Kurdistan, power decentralized in the rest of the country down to the provincial level, and Sunnis recruited on a provincial level to fight against ISIS. For it is only in imagining an Iraq different from the past that there is any hope in breaking the cycle of civil war and creating a brighter future for its citizens.

    It is not beyond the capacity of the U.S. to push towards such an arrangement—the regional powers have a shared interest in defeating ISIS in Iraq. The question remains whether the U.S. has the will to play a stronger diplomatic role as balancer-in-chief in the region. Without such a vision, there is a real risk that the U.S. will be sucked back in to Iraq, incrementally increasing troop numbers on the ground, but with no way of getting out.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/06/25/can-iraq-be-saved.html
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 11 Aug 2015, 19:13

    from the iBeach...  What a Face
    I have wondered...does the Bush family hold IQD in their coffers...for that matter, maybe Hillary does too?

    Bush attempts to steal back election agenda over Iraq
    Geoff DyeiB in Washington
    ©Getty

    Jeb Bush will use a high-profile speech in California on Tuesday to blame Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the instability in Iraq, an effort by the former Florida governor to both recapture the initiative from Donald Trump and sidestep his brother’s troubled legacy in Iraq.

    In an address at the Ronald Regan Library in Simi Valley, Mr Bush will argue that the Obama administration helped create the conditions for the rise of Isis by the “premature” and “fatal error” of withdrawing US troops in 2011.

    “Isis grew while the United States disengaged from the Middle East and ignored the threat,” he will tell the audience.  In the two months since he launched his bid for the presidency, the former governor has consistently stumbled as he attempted to discuss George W Bush’s invasion of Iraq.  Having insisted in February that “I am my own man”, Mr Bush has said at times that he still supports the 2003 war but he has also criticised the administration of George W Bush, his brother, for the lack of planning for the invasion and in last week’s Republican candidates’ debate he said the war was a “mistake”.

    Given the high level of instability and conflict in the Middle East, Mr Bush’s candidacy is likely to continually operate under the shadow of the controversial 2003 invasion of Iraq, both in the Republican primaries and in the general election were to he to win the nomination.  The hawkish tone of the speech, which includes the phrase “focus of evil” to describe Isis, and the attacks on Mrs Clinton are partly designed to overcome the lack of enthusiasm for Mr Bush among conservative activists in the party, many of whom are responsible for Mr Trump’s present strong showing in the opinion polls.

    After a cautious and at times nervous performance in last week’s debate, Mr Bush has fallen back in a number of polls this week, although he has already raised formidable sums of money.  By blaming the 2011 US withdrawal for the rise of Isis, Mr Bush is also hoping to shift the debate over the Middle East away from the 2003 Iraq war.   In the speech, he is expected to say that Mr Obama and Mrs Clinton were guilty of “a case of blind haste to get out, and to call the tragic consequences somebody else’s problem”.  He adds: “So eager to be the history-makers, they failed to be the peacemakers.” n “That premature withdrawal was the fatal error, creating the void that ISIS moved in to fill — and that Iran has exploited to the full as well,” he will say, according to extracts released by the campaign.

    “And where was secretary of state Clinton in all of this? Like the president himself, she . . . d by as that hard-won victory by American and allied forces was thrown away,” Mr Bush will say.  Mr Bush’s underlying argument is that the 2007 “surge” of US forces into Iraq, a deeply unpopular decision when ordered by his brother, brought stability to the country after the initial chaos following the invasion.

    However, the difficulty for the former Florida governor is that it was George W Bush who signed the agreement to start significantly scaling back US forces in Iraq.  Both the Bush and Obama administrations tried to negotiate a follow-on agreement with the Iraqi government that would give legal immunity for a smaller number of US forces to remain in the country, however Baghdad refused.  Some former officials have suggested Mr Obama did not try hard enough to win the support of the Iraqi government, which was under heavy pressure from Iran to secure the departure of US troops.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/82558c5a-4079-11e5-9abe-5b335da3a90e.html?ftcamp=published_links/rss/iraq/feed//product&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter#axzz3iYCpDbv9


    ...  What a Face
    from The Guardian...

    Jeb Bush to embrace family legacy on Iraq in hawkish foreign policy speech
    ...“Radical Islam is a threat we are entirely capable of overcoming, and I will be unyielding in that cause should I be elected President of the United States,” says Bush. “We should pursue the clear and unequivocal objective of throwing back the barbarians of Isis, and helping the millions in the region who want to live in peace.”  'He also promises that if he becomes president he will reverse seven years of “dismantling our own military...”
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/aug/11/jeb-bush-iraq-foreign-policy-speech
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  butterfly on Tue 11 Aug 2015, 20:54

    In an address at the Ronald Regan Library in Simi Valley, Mr Bush will argue that the Obama administration helped create the conditions for the rise of Isis by the “premature” and “fatal error” of withdrawing US troops in 2011.

    Only those that have followed Iraq and the "deal" that GWB and Maliki agreed upon to withdraw the troops at the end of 2011 is NOT Obama's fault/problem. Obama tried to get the troops amnesty and Maliki would not budge, so he had no alternative to follow through with the deal that he and Bush set in stone in.....The Plan.
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Fri 30 Oct 2015, 18:04

    from the iBeach…  What a Face
    ‘Iraq is still a mess, but it is not yet beyond salvation’



    ONE STEP BACK, TWO STEPS FORWARD
    10/31/15

    America and Iran are competing to show which is the stronger ally in the fight against Islamic State. That should be good news for Iraq

    SYRIA gets the lion’s share of the world’s attention, but in Iraq, after months of stalemate, the battle against Islamic State (IS) is at last hotting up. On October 7th the Iraqi army, local police and some tribal fighters, supported by both coalition and Iraqi air strikes, launched a big push to encircle and eventually retake Ramadi, the capital city of mainly Sunni Anbar province west of Baghdad which fell to IS in May. As The Economist went to press, the effort to cut Ramadi off appeared nearly complete, with the 10,000-strong Iraqi force in control of the critical Albu Farraj bridge over the Euphrates and preparing to take on the 1,000 or so IS fighters still left inside the city.

    On October 15th around 5,000 Iraqi soldiers and armed national police working alongside 10,000 Iranian-supported Shia militia fighters (known as Hashid al-Shabi or Popular Mobilisation Units), with some help from coalition air strikes, began an assault to recapture the Baiji oil refinery. After months of inconclusive fighting, victory was declared on October 24th. The refinery, once the country’s biggest, is damaged beyond repair. But since it sits halfway between Baghdad and IS-occupied Mosul in the north, holding it and the nearby town is strategically vital. Control of the road south will make it harder for IS to threaten Tikrit, retaken by the government in April, or to funnel reinforcements into Anbar.

    These twin offensives came after several months of drift. The delay was caused by the intense summer heat and the time it is taking to reconstitute the Iraqi army after two of its divisions collapsed 18 months ago when IS rampaged through northern and western Iraq, seizing Mosul, the country’s second city (with a population of nearly 2m), and coming close to Baghdad.

    The new push involves new tactics: big simultaneous attacks in places nearly 250km apart will stretch IS. And the deliberate division of labour between the Hashid al-Shabi militias and the government-controlled Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) may be even more significant.

    Since late May, the Iranian-backed militias have been concentrating their efforts on Salahuddin province, north of Baghdad, in a more or less independent operation that keeps them away from Anbar to the west, where the prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, under pressure from the Americans, is trying to limit their role. Some Sunni tribes have linked up with the Hashid al-Shabi there, but too often when Shia fighters drive IS out of Sunni areas, their main interest is in carrying out reprisals against locals suspected of collaboration.



    The Americans are keen to chalk up a military success that owes nothing to Iran, and have consequently been upping the tempo of air sorties in Anbar. (The Pentagon claims about 150 in the past three weeks, mostly around Ramadi.) The Americans are also supplying armoured bulldozers to carve a path through booby-trapped defences.

    In a separate operation on October 22nd American special forces joined with Kurdish peshmerga units in a daring raid to help free 69 prisoners held by ISIS near the northern town of Hawija. The Pentagon said that the mission, which cost the life of an American soldier, was a response to intelligence received by the Kurds that the captives were about to be murdered. America’s defence secretary, Ashton Carter, in testimony to Congress this week, suggested that Barack Obama’s “no boots on the ground” promise was under revision. He said that American forces “won’t hold back from supporting capable partners in opportunistic attacks against ISIS…or conducting such missions directly, whether by strikes from the air or direct action on the ground”.

    The stakes have become much higher since the unwelcome arrival of the Russians in Baghdad last month to establish a military intelligence “co-ordination cell” with Iran and Syria. Such is the concern in Washington about what Russia may be up to in Syria that America’s most senior officer, Marine General Joe Dunford, was dispatched to Iraq on October 20th. In meetings with Mr Abadi and the defence minister, Khaled al-Obeidi, he warned that America could not continue its present level of military support if the Russians start carrying out air strikes of their own.

    Remember who your friends are
    It was a reminder to the Abadi government that the American-led coalition is the essential ally against IS. But to show Iraqis that he is wise to prefer an alliance with the Americans, what Mr Abadi most needs is a speedy and conclusive victory in Ramadi. Patrick Martin of the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank, notes that the more the Iranian proxy militias succeed in Baiji without an ISF breakthrough in Ramadi “the more pressure there is on Abadi”.  

    General Dunford appears to have been heeded. Yet many Iraqis are still disappointed about the level of America’s commitment. When Mr Obama declared just over a year ago that his strategy was to “degrade and ultimately destroy” IS, the expectation in Baghdad was that he would attack the so-called caliphate far more energetically than he has.

    Mr Obama accepted that it would take time “to eradicate the cancer” of IS. But he was wrong about much else, in particular his assertion that IS “is a terrorist organisation, pure and simple”. That IS is spectacularly brutal is not in doubt, but it also holds territory, administers it and is prepared to defend it. About 10m people live in the areas IS controls, the vast majority of them in the relatively populous towns of the Sunni-majority parts of Iraq. Although IS rules by fear, it also attempts to provide basic administration and rudimentary services, which some may find preferable to the malign neglect of the previous Shia-dominated government in Baghdad.

    Militarily, although IS uses terrorist tactics, such as suicide bombs, these are only one aspect of its formidable combat power. Mr Obama misjudged the nature of an adaptable enemy and the environment in which it operates.

    The initial objective of halting the advance of IS and pushing it out of mainly Shia areas, such as Samarra, Karbala and the outskirts of Baghdad, was fairly swiftly achieved. The increasingly autonomous territory controlled by the Kurdish Regional Government, based in Erbil, looks secure too. Its peshmerga fighters have established strong defensive lines that extend across most of the multi-ethnic, oil-rich province of Kirkuk. The liberation of Jurf al-Sakhar and Tikrit also showed that Sunni towns could be retaken from IS, albeit at huge cost to the inhabitants.

    But since those early gains, which saw IS lose about 15% of the territory it had captured earlier in the year, an uneasy stalemate ensued. This was interrupted by the shocking loss of Ramadi in May, which scuppered over-optimistic plans, drawn up by American military advisers and the government in Baghdad, for an assault on IS in Mosul later this year.



    There are now signs that the Iraqi forces are improving after their earlier woeful performance. But the government in Baghdad remains over-reliant on the Hashid al-Shabi, over which it exercises only patchy control and which have little inclination to work with Iraqi Sunnis. Attempts to create a national guard based on Sunni tribal militias in Anbar, something the Americans have been urging in the hope of establishing a second “Sunni Awakening”, have collapsed. For this, blame lies with Shia power-brokers, close to the Iranians, who are undermining the efforts of the well-meaning Mr Abadi to be more inclusive. Unless the Sunni tribes can be organised into an effective fighting force, the prospect of freeing all of Anbar province from the grip of IS will remain remote.

    Too soft on Iran
    America has not only failed to push Baghdad to engage constructively with the Anbari tribes. Some say it has also ceded too much sway to Iran, which has provided military assistance more rapidly and wholeheartedly than the coalition. Many people suspect that Mr Obama was reluctant to push back hard against Iranian influence in Iraq for fear of derailing his nuclear negotiations with Tehran.

    That may now be changing, if only gradually. Yet without a less risk-averse American train-and-assist mission to improve Iraq’s security forces and a much more aggressive air campaign, there is still a danger that people will accept the status quo. That implies accepting that Iraq has no future as a unitary state—an outcome that would suit both Iran and IS.

    There are about 3,500 American military trainers in Iraq but, under Mr Obama’s orders, they have been largely confined to their own bases. Among critics of America’s tentative strategy for defeating IS, Anthony Cordesman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington observes: “Generating or rebuilding forces in the rear is not enough and is an almost certain recipe for failure. New or weak forces need forward deployed teams of advisers to help them actually fight.”


    The IS media machine: Tracking Islamic State's media output

    The Iraqis are also frustrated by restrictive rules of engagement laid down by the White House aimed at minimising the risk to civilians. Ahmed Ali, an analyst based in Iraqi Kurdistan, argues that “the current rules have…hampered ground forces from being more effective”. Mr Martin says it is vital to have American forward air controllers to direct strikes on IS targets. Mr Cordesman describes the air campaign so far as “weak”. A more aggressive one could boost Iraqi morale, destroy key IS units in Iraq and Syria and give Iraqi forces time to rebuild their strength, he argues. This may at last be happening. General Dunford said this week he was now open to embedding American troops with Iraqi combat forces to help provide them with intelligence and to direct air strikes and artillery fire.

    Doubts will linger about whether Mr Obama has the will to succeed in Iraq. But something is shifting and it is not too late. A less cautious coalition effort would also bolster Mr Abadi, who needs all the help he can get. Convincing Iraq’s Sunnis that Baghdad genuinely cares about their fate and wants them to remain part of Iraq is the only way to defeat IS in the long term. Iraq is still a mess, but unlike Syria, it is not yet beyond salvation.

    http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21677226-america-and-iran-are-competing-show-which-stronger-ally-fight

    Given the title of this article, LOL, you may also want to just step back, do the dinarian two-step and review more recent posts and commentary here (posts #85-96):
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t1970p50-if-we-just-step-back
    and here (post #24):
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2626-iraq-in-focus#50158
    and here (posts #110, 111):
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2476p100-lost-in-translation
    and here (post #112):
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2031p100-dinar-sense-and-sensibility#50126



    Last edited by goodyboy on Sat 14 May 2016, 16:44; edited 1 time in total
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 02 Nov 2015, 18:49

    from the iBeach…  What a Face
    ‘Iraq is still a mess, but it is not yet beyond salvation’



    ONE STEP BACK, TWO STEPS FORWARD
    10/31/15

    America and Iran are competing to show which is the stronger ally in the fight against Islamic State. That should be good news for Iraq

    SYRIA gets the lion’s share of the world’s attention, but in Iraq, after months of stalemate, the battle against Islamic State (IS) is at last hotting up. On October 7th the Iraqi army, local police and some tribal fighters, supported by both coalition and Iraqi air strikes, launched a big push to encircle and eventually retake Ramadi, the capital city of mainly Sunni Anbar province west of Baghdad which fell to IS in May. As The Economist went to press, the effort to cut Ramadi off appeared nearly complete, with the 10,000-strong Iraqi force in control of the critical Albu Farraj bridge over the Euphrates and preparing to take on the 1,000 or so IS fighters still left inside the city.

    On October 15th around 5,000 Iraqi soldiers and armed national police working alongside 10,000 Iranian-supported Shia militia fighters (known as Hashid al-Shabi or Popular Mobilisation Units), with some help from coalition air strikes, began an assault to recapture the Baiji oil refinery. After months of inconclusive fighting, victory was declared on October 24th. The refinery, once the country’s biggest, is damaged beyond repair. But since it sits halfway between Baghdad and IS-occupied Mosul in the north, holding it and the nearby town is strategically vital. Control of the road south will make it harder for IS to threaten Tikrit, retaken by the government in April, or to funnel reinforcements into Anbar.

    These twin offensives came after several months of drift. The delay was caused by the intense summer heat and the time it is taking to reconstitute the Iraqi army after two of its divisions collapsed 18 months ago when IS rampaged through northern and western Iraq, seizing Mosul, the country’s second city (with a population of nearly 2m), and coming close to Baghdad.

    The new push involves new tactics: big simultaneous attacks in places nearly 250km apart will stretch IS. And the deliberate division of labour between the Hashid al-Shabi militias and the government-controlled Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) may be even more significant.

    Since late May, the Iranian-backed militias have been concentrating their efforts on Salahuddin province, north of Baghdad, in a more or less independent operation that keeps them away from Anbar to the west, where the prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, under pressure from the Americans, is trying to limit their role. Some Sunni tribes have linked up with the Hashid al-Shabi there, but too often when Shia fighters drive IS out of Sunni areas, their main interest is in carrying out reprisals against locals suspected of collaboration.



    The Americans are keen to chalk up a military success that owes nothing to Iran, and have consequently been upping the tempo of air sorties in Anbar. (The Pentagon claims about 150 in the past three weeks, mostly around Ramadi.) The Americans are also supplying armoured bulldozers to carve a path through booby-trapped defences.

    In a separate operation on October 22nd American special forces joined with Kurdish peshmerga units in a daring raid to help free 69 prisoners held by ISIS near the northern town of Hawija. The Pentagon said that the mission, which cost the life of an American soldier, was a response to intelligence received by the Kurds that the captives were about to be murdered. America’s defence secretary, Ashton Carter, in testimony to Congress this week, suggested that Barack Obama’s “no boots on the ground” promise was under revision. He said that American forces “won’t hold back from supporting capable partners in opportunistic attacks against ISIS…or conducting such missions directly, whether by strikes from the air or direct action on the ground”.

    The stakes have become much higher since the unwelcome arrival of the Russians in Baghdad last month to establish a military intelligence “co-ordination cell” with Iran and Syria. Such is the concern in Washington about what Russia may be up to in Syria that America’s most senior officer, Marine General Joe Dunford, was dispatched to Iraq on October 20th. In meetings with Mr Abadi and the defence minister, Khaled al-Obeidi, he warned that America could not continue its present level of military support if the Russians start carrying out air strikes of their own.

    Remember who your friends are
    It was a reminder to the Abadi government that the American-led coalition is the essential ally against IS. But to show Iraqis that he is wise to prefer an alliance with the Americans, what Mr Abadi most needs is a speedy and conclusive victory in Ramadi. Patrick Martin of the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think-tank, notes that the more the Iranian proxy militias succeed in Baiji without an ISF breakthrough in Ramadi “the more pressure there is on Abadi”.  

    General Dunford appears to have been heeded. Yet many Iraqis are still disappointed about the level of America’s commitment. When Mr Obama declared just over a year ago that his strategy was to “degrade and ultimately destroy” IS, the expectation in Baghdad was that he would attack the so-called caliphate far more energetically than he has.

    Mr Obama accepted that it would take time “to eradicate the cancer” of IS. But he was wrong about much else, in particular his assertion that IS “is a terrorist organisation, pure and simple”. That IS is spectacularly brutal is not in doubt, but it also holds territory, administers it and is prepared to defend it. About 10m people live in the areas IS controls, the vast majority of them in the relatively populous towns of the Sunni-majority parts of Iraq. Although IS rules by fear, it also attempts to provide basic administration and rudimentary services, which some may find preferable to the malign neglect of the previous Shia-dominated government in Baghdad.

    Militarily, although IS uses terrorist tactics, such as suicide bombs, these are only one aspect of its formidable combat power. Mr Obama misjudged the nature of an adaptable enemy and the environment in which it operates.

    The initial objective of halting the advance of IS and pushing it out of mainly Shia areas, such as Samarra, Karbala and the outskirts of Baghdad, was fairly swiftly achieved. The increasingly autonomous territory controlled by the Kurdish Regional Government, based in Erbil, looks secure too. Its peshmerga fighters have established strong defensive lines that extend across most of the multi-ethnic, oil-rich province of Kirkuk. The liberation of Jurf al-Sakhar and Tikrit also showed that Sunni towns could be retaken from IS, albeit at huge cost to the inhabitants.

    But since those early gains, which saw IS lose about 15% of the territory it had captured earlier in the year, an uneasy stalemate ensued. This was interrupted by the shocking loss of Ramadi in May, which scuppered over-optimistic plans, drawn up by American military advisers and the government in Baghdad, for an assault on IS in Mosul later this year.



    There are now signs that the Iraqi forces are improving after their earlier woeful performance. But the government in Baghdad remains over-reliant on the Hashid al-Shabi, over which it exercises only patchy control and which have little inclination to work with Iraqi Sunnis. Attempts to create a national guard based on Sunni tribal militias in Anbar, something the Americans have been urging in the hope of establishing a second “Sunni Awakening”, have collapsed. For this, blame lies with Shia power-brokers, close to the Iranians, who are undermining the efforts of the well-meaning Mr Abadi to be more inclusive. Unless the Sunni tribes can be organised into an effective fighting force, the prospect of freeing all of Anbar province from the grip of IS will remain remote.

    Too soft on Iran
    America has not only failed to push Baghdad to engage constructively with the Anbari tribes. Some say it has also ceded too much sway to Iran, which has provided military assistance more rapidly and wholeheartedly than the coalition. Many people suspect that Mr Obama was reluctant to push back hard against Iranian influence in Iraq for fear of derailing his nuclear negotiations with Tehran.

    That may now be changing, if only gradually. Yet without a less risk-averse American train-and-assist mission to improve Iraq’s security forces and a much more aggressive air campaign, there is still a danger that people will accept the status quo. That implies accepting that Iraq has no future as a unitary state—an outcome that would suit both Iran and IS.

    There are about 3,500 American military trainers in Iraq but, under Mr Obama’s orders, they have been largely confined to their own bases. Among critics of America’s tentative strategy for defeating IS, Anthony Cordesman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington observes: “Generating or rebuilding forces in the rear is not enough and is an almost certain recipe for failure. New or weak forces need forward deployed teams of advisers to help them actually fight.”


    The IS media machine: Tracking Islamic State's media output

    The Iraqis are also frustrated by restrictive rules of engagement laid down by the White House aimed at minimising the risk to civilians. Ahmed Ali, an analyst based in Iraqi Kurdistan, argues that “the current rules have…hampered ground forces from being more effective”. Mr Martin says it is vital to have American forward air controllers to direct strikes on IS targets. Mr Cordesman describes the air campaign so far as “weak”. A more aggressive one could boost Iraqi morale, destroy key IS units in Iraq and Syria and give Iraqi forces time to rebuild their strength, he argues. This may at last be happening. General Dunford said this week he was now open to embedding American troops with Iraqi combat forces to help provide them with intelligence and to direct air strikes and artillery fire.

    Doubts will linger about whether Mr Obama has the will to succeed in Iraq. But something is shifting and it is not too late. A less cautious coalition effort would also bolster Mr Abadi, who needs all the help he can get. Convincing Iraq’s Sunnis that Baghdad genuinely cares about their fate and wants them to remain part of Iraq is the only way to defeat IS in the long term. Iraq is still a mess, but unlike Syria, it is not yet beyond salvation.

    http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21677226-america-and-iran-are-competing-show-which-stronger-ally-fight

    Given the title of this article, LOL, you may also want to just step back, do the dinarian two-step and review more recent posts and commentary here (posts #85-96):
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t1970p50-if-we-just-step-back
    and here (post #24):
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2626-iraq-in-focus#50158
    and here (posts #110, 111):
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2476p100-lost-in-translation
    and here (post #112):
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2031p100-dinar-sense-and-sensibility#50126



    from lil sister... farao
    Forget the obsession with tomorrow's news...yesterday's commentary is still relevant for our investment (especially as it references the Abadi struggle)...time to contemplate...one day, tomorrow's news will perhaps be noteworthy news and we will all be butterflys!
    ...uh, and this too!

    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2626-iraq-in-focus
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    goodyboy
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    Re: What does all this chaos mean for our investment...

    Post  goodyboy on Sat 29 Oct 2016, 19:04

    from the iBeach... What a Face

    In the spirit of this thread (worth reviewing), I hope you all realize that the battle to retake Mosul is bringing about an unprecedented unity among the Iraqi sectarian divide…Sunnis, Shias and Kurds, all fighting for the same objective…use your imagination and think about the implications…

    Noteworthy links below (but there are many others posted all over our iWorld):

    http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/10/29/Shiite-militias-join-Iraqi-forces-in-Mosul-offensive/7781477776726/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/iraqs-shiite-militias-join-battle-for-mosul-from-the-west?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/29/iraqi-shia-militias-tighten-noose-on-isis-with-mosul-offensive?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=DTN+Iraq:

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/iraq-war-isis-unlikely-alliances-between-shiites-kurds-sunnis-us-iran/


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