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    Maliki's 3rd term chances...

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    Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 05 May 2014, 10:21

    ...  What a Face 
    Kirk Sowell...an objective perspective...
    ...reportedly a non-dinarian, but a walking encyclopedia on Iraqi politics...
    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/463209647420489729



    Kirk Sowell:
    Prediction on Maliki's 3rd term chances
    <70 seats: None
    ->80 seats: Slim
    ->90 seats: Uphill fight
    ->100 seats: Decent chance but still hard
    >100 seats: Reelected

    "Reason I say Maliki needs big victory to secure 3rd term is the "intensity gap" - even if half support him, most of them will do just fine with someone else as PM. The die-hard anti-Maliki MPs could still outnumber die-hard pro-Malikis three to one. So M needs big win...."

    Kirk Sowell, Iraqi political risk analyst, attorney, historian, translator...
    http://about.me/kirksowell/
    http://www.uticensis.com
    https://www.facebook.com/kirk.sowell.1?fref=ts


    Last edited by goodyboy on Wed 25 Jun 2014, 10:04; edited 4 times in total
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 05 May 2014, 15:22

    goodhoody retweet...LOL What a Face 


    https://twitter.com/kaperoni

    Retweeted by goodhoody
    Michael Kaperoni ‏@kaperoni
    "Gotta love it!  Maliki changing his tune to stay in power..did any of you doubt it?"

    Iraq's Al-Maliki calls for 'partnership government' instead of 'majority government'
    https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/11287-iraqs-al-maliki-calls-for-partnership-government-instead-of-majority-government
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 06 May 2014, 09:52

    ...  What a Face 
    Kirk Sowell tweet...
    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/463598608500006912

    "Of course the election results will be well known long before May 25, so IHEC's "announcement" will be totally anticlimatic. Local electoral officials are already releasing results...The parties already know how they did."
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 07 May 2014, 14:49

    ...  What a Face

     

    Iraq's Election: Shia Versus Shia
    http://www.economist.com
    Posted 2014-05-07 17:58 GMT



    As the ballots are counted following the election on April 30th, Nuri al-Maliki, Iraq's prime minister, is plainly determined to cobble together a broad enough coalition to stay in office. In the past he has consolidated power mainly at the expense of Sunni Arabs and Kurds. This time, after eight years as prime minister, he is likely to find that his strongest rivals for the top job come from within his own Shia group.

    Many Shia voters in Iraq still look to the Marjaya, the establishment of senior religious scholars in the holy city of Najaf, to give them guidance when casting their ballots. Mr Maliki has brought the security and intelligence services under his control, has eroded the power of parliament and replaced military commanders with people loyal to him. But he has been less successful in creating unity among his fellow Shias--the overwhelming concern of the Marjaya.

    During the campaign Ali al-Sistani, the 83-year-old grand ayatollah whose influence was pre-eminent in the early years after the American invasion, was silent, but other prominent clergymen in Najaf, including one of Mr Sistani's closest confidants, called for change. "Every Friday [when they give sermons] they have been bashing the government for not delivering services, accusing them of corruption and for lacking principles and good governance," says Bakhtiar Amin, a human-rights minister in Iraq's first government after the American invasion of 2003. "The question is how much the Shias are following their spiritual leaders."

    Perhaps not as much as they used to. Early reports suggest Mr Maliki did well in Iraq's mainly Shia southern provinces. Kirk Sowell of Inside Iraqi Politics, a twice-a-month newsletter, thinks Mr Maliki's bloc could get 90-plus seats in a fragmented 328-seat parliament, which might be enough for him to keep his job "but not enough to close the deal easily."

    With that sort of score, Mr Maliki would have to persuade leading Shias who joined his coalition last time round, in 2010, to back him again. Some, however, may already be contemplating a similar Shia alliance--but under a different prime minister. For instance, Amar Hakim, leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, may be considering an alliance with Mr Maliki's party and that of Muqtada al-Sadr, a populist Shia firebrand, under a more palatable candidate for prime minister. During the election campaign, Mr Sadr ostensibly withdrew from politics, perhaps losing votes for his bloc and enabling Mr Maliki to make up ground.

    Preliminary results are expected on May 15th, final ones on the 25th. "I think [Mr Maliki] benefited a lot from the fragmentation of the political spectrum," says Anja Wehler-Schoeck, director of the Iraqi branch of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, a German think-tank. She says that violence in Anbar, a Sunni province west of Baghdad, and elsewhere has heightened the sense of insecurity and perhaps made people keener to return to a strongman.

    A final factor in the choice of prime minister may be Iran. Though the Americans have bemoaned Mr Maliki's drift into Iran's sphere of influence during the past few years, the ruling ayatollahs in Tehran may yet back someone even more friendly towards them. Mr Maliki is by no means home and dry.

    http://www.aina.org/news/20140507125815.htm?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 08 May 2014, 09:48

    ...  What a Face
    Kirk Sowell tweets...
    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/464382217179787264

    "...the Shia bloc will stick together. Hakim/Sadr will try to ditch Maliki w/n that framework. All the Shia-maj provinces except Baghdad are done w the regular vote count, some have completed the security vote. The parties not only know how many seats they will have in each province, they know which candidates and have started releasing some of those names...Absent an off-the-wall result from Baghdad, Maliki's chances of breaking 90 seats look pretty good right now."

    Kirk Sowell, Iraqi political risk analyst, attorney, historian, translator...
    http://about.me/kirksowell/
    http://www.uticensis.com
    https://www.facebook.com/kirk.sowell.1?fref=ts
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 12 May 2014, 10:20

    ...  What a Face 

    Kirk H. Sowell ‏@UticensisRisk  3m
    This is my new #Iraq article for  @TheNationalUAE related to the partial results from #IraqElections2014 & after.
    http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/with-results-due-iraq-anticipates-a-post-election-fight#full …



    With results due, Iraq anticipates a post-election fight
    Kirk H Sowell
    May 12, 2014 Updated: May 12, 2014 18:04:00
               

    Iraq held parliamentary elections on April 30 under the worst possible conditions, with an empowered Sunni insurgency holding its own in wide swathes of the country. The political environment was just as bad, with Nouri Al Maliki, the prime minister, running his reelection campaign by portraying himself as a Shia champion against the insurgency.

    Among Sunni Arab blocs, campaign rhetoric reflected extreme polarisation. Speaker Osama Al Nujayfi’s Mutahidun, the largest Sunni bloc, described Mr Al Maliki’s counterinsurgency campaign as an all-out war against Sunni Arabs, warning that Mr Al Maliki’s reelection would result in “genocide” against Sunnis.

    Saleh Al Mutlaq’s Arab Coalition, by contrast, framed the Kurds and Mr Al Nujayfi’s promotion of an autonomous Sunni region as the greatest threat to Iraq. Former prime minister Iyad Allawi’s predominately Sunni but cross-sectarian Nationalist Coalition took an anti-Maliki but more moderate line than Mr Al Nujayfi.

    The Iraqi High Electoral Commission (IHEC) has not helped by taking an excessive period of time to announce election results, creating greater uncertainty.

    While some of IHEC’s problems can be related to difficult conditions in Sunni Arab areas, sufficient vote counts have been completed in Shia areas for several days, leading some parties to leak results to play up their vote.

    Nonetheless, Iraqi media citing local election officials have published enough of the initial results to have a rough sense of how Shia Iraqis have voted, and it is their vote that primarily determines who heads the next government.

    At present, Mr Al Maliki appears likely to have 90-100 seats, slightly more than the 89 he had in 2010 (this parliament has 328 rather than 325 seats). The Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI)-led Citizen’s Bloc appears to have 40-45, while Sadrists should end up with 30-35.

    These results will broadly match the results from last year’s provincial elections in proportional terms for ISCI and the Sadrists, while Mr Al Maliki’s party is sweeping up seats won last year by a large number of small parties. Despite the military’s poor performance, Mr Maliki has control of state media, and with military officers parroting his line even on television channels he does not control, he has been able to portray himself as a defender of the Shia against Sunni jihadists and nationalist insurgents, who despite their disparate aims are associated in the popular mind.

    Moreover, Mr Al Maliki’s government can now claim some real progress on public services, especially electricity, which has finally came on strong over the past several months. Mr Al Maliki has also benefited from divisions among his opponents. There are three cross-sectarian secular blocs running in Shia provinces, the Civil Alliance, the Iraq Coalition and Mr Allawi’s Nationalist Coalition. None is likely to win even a single seat in at least six or seven provinces. This is partly because each province is a district and in parliamentary elections each one (except Baghdad) has fewer seats, thus raising the minimum needed for a seat. Additionally, the new election law increased the number of minimum votes needed. So despite these three having few ideological differences, leadership disagreements mean secularists will largely be wiped out in the Shia south.

    Mr Al Maliki still faces a tough fight ahead for a third term though, since the 70 or so Shia seats held by hard-core opponents can block the formation of a new government given Mr Al Maliki’s need for their support.

    Iran more highly prizes Shia unity than Mr Al Maliki himself, and a substantial number of seats within Mr Al Maliki’s SLC will be held by the Badr Organisation and the Dawa Party-Iraq Organisation, both Iranian proxies.

    Furthermore, the wing of the Kurdish alliance made up of the Sulaymania-based Patriotic Union of Kurdistan is dependent on Iran (its finances are heavily dependent on cross-border trade that Iran controls). Tehran has long sought to maintain an alliance between the Shia and Kurdish factions it backs, and it could throw its backing behind an alternative Shia Islamist for prime minister.

    The role of the Kurds and the Sunni Arabs, then, will be indirect until the Shia bloc sorts itself out. If the Kurds are unified against Mr Al Maliki that will stiffen opposition to him, but if and when Mr Al Maliki steps aside, the superficial unity holding together his rivals will dissolve. And once the Shia do coalesce around a nominee, that candidate will likely begin the negotiation process with the simple majority needed to form a government, so Kurdish and Sunni Arab leverage will be slight. (Contrary to the widespread belief that two-thirds is needed to elect a president, the constitution allows a simple majority vote on the second ballot, so 165 out of 328 is all that is needed)

    In the meantime, parliament has yet to pass the 2014 budget, blocked primarily over provisions related to Kurdistan’s oil exports. At present Mr Al Nujayfi is sticking with his Kurdish allies, and Masud Barzani, Kurdistan’s president, is speaking firmly about the need for “real partnership” as a precondition to a new government.

    But what we may call the “regionalist coalition” is outnumbered, and with the budget delay freezing projects across the country, taking a hard line could stick Mr Barzani and the Kurds with a new government with a centralist orientation very much not to their liking.

    Kirk H. Sowell ‏@UticensisRisk  3m
    One technical note near the end of this article: electing a president in Iraq only requires a majority, not a super-majority 2/3 vote...this is a widespread misconception and it exists because Article 70(1) says elect prez by 2/3. But Art. 70(2) says if no candidate wins 2/3, then you hold another vote and a majority is enough. You see lots of articles by otherwise well-informed writers who miss this.
    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk

    Read more: http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/with-results-due-iraq-anticipates-a-post-election-fight#full#ixzz31VjuBvKQ

    Kirk Sowell, Iraqi political risk analyst, attorney, historian, translator...
    http://about.me/kirksowell/
    http://www.uticensis.com
    https://www.facebook.com/kirk.sowell.1?fref=ts



    ...  What a Face 
    not much else to say at this juncture...
    ...if we just step back, we are in the process of watching the second timeline item play itself out (link below)...

    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t1970-if-we-just-step-back


    Last edited by goodyboy on Mon 12 May 2014, 12:38; edited 3 times in total
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 12 May 2014, 11:55

    ...  What a Face 
    Retweeted by Michael Kaperoni and goodhoody
    Kirk H. Sowell ‏@UticensisRisk  2 hrs ago
    @boom_shak_alaka Yes there is a very real chance Maliki will not be reelected despite the strong SLC showing. @kaperoni
    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk

    Kirk Sowell, Iraqi political risk analyst, attorney, historian, translator...
    http://about.me/kirksowell/
    http://www.uticensis.com
    https://www.facebook.com/kirk.sowell.1?fref=ts
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 13 May 2014, 13:07

    ...  What a Face 
    is it beginning to unravel?
    ...if this source is accurate, this article seems to imply that al-Maliki is bargaining for a waiver from prosecution and legal consequences if he relinquishes control and withdraws his efforts at seeking a third term...


    Maliki agrees to the demand of the National Alliance's rejection of the third term on condition of pursuing it with a group of his close judicial
    Dated: May 13, 2014

    Baghdad / Iraq News Network - A source in the National Alliance, that the head of a coalition of state law, Nuri al-Maliki agreed to a demand blocks the coalition's rejection of the third term for him.

    Source said: "The prime minister of the outgoing (party) realized that winning a third term is impossible after obtaining his coalition on less than 80-seat parliament according to the results supplied by the Electoral Commission for elections...and added that the (greatest fear al-Maliki has) is the prosecution and legal (consequences) resulting from the mismanagement of the government during the last four years and the operations of financial and administrative corruption that accompanied the work which exceeds 300 billion dollars.

    ...and added that the head of a coalition of state Law handed the coalition parties the main document waiving conditional, and the most important clauses not prosecuted "and legally" with 15 leading figure of the Dawa Party and associates, including the director of Real Estate State in the Green Zone, and his son Ahmed Nouri al-Maliki and senior agent of the Ministry of the Interior Adnan al-Asadi and Saadoun al-Dulaimi, the defense minister and the agency and the team Farouk al-Araji Director of the Office of the Adjutant General and Lieutenant-General Ali Ghaidan, the commander of the ground forces and Zuhair Gharbaoui head of the intelligence agency and the team Qassim Atta, director of operations, intelligence, and Lt. Gen. Hussein al-Awadi, the commander of the federal police and former Gen. Mahdi Gharbaoui operational commander of Nineveh, Qais al-Khazali, the leader of the militia headbands right and Kamal al-Saadi and Hanan al and Ali al-Adeeb The team called Hgati head of counter-terrorism as well as to close the file and former Secretary of Commerce Abdul Falah al-Sudani final.

    "This was a political body of the Iraqi National Alliance met on, on Monday, its components all, and in the presence of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in the office of President of the Alliance, Ibrahim al-Jaafari.


    http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ar&u=http://malware-site.www/&prev=/search?q%3Daliraqnews.com%26biw%3D1600%26bih%3D782


    Last edited by goodyboy on Wed 14 May 2014, 11:13; edited 7 times in total (Reason for editing : translation edits...)
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 14 May 2014, 11:12

    ...  What a Face 

    Kirk Sowell tweet...
    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/466472555172605952
    "what matters most is the post-elex balance of power. They'll need Iran's help to dislodge Maliki now."
    @ZaabSethna @Nussaibah

    goodhoody retweet...
    Want to try to understand the mess that is post-election #Iraq?
    Read this...post #6 above
    http://t.co/iCJWU3vBFc by @uticensisrisk
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 15 May 2014, 11:54

    ...  What a Face 


    ...IMO, any realistic probability of a feasible timeline needs to take into account:

    - elections first...
    - then seating the government (which took a few months after the last election)...
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t1970-if-we-just-step-back

    Retweeted by Kirk H. Sowell
    https://twitter.com/Hayder_alKhoei/status/466914882387214336

    Hayder al-Khoei ‏@Hayder_alKhoei  3h
    Iraq After the Elections
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-y2-SigGBaI …
    MEI-SAIS panel w/ @DrAbbasKadhim, Zalmay Khalilzad, Saifaldin Abdul-Rahman & Denise Natali

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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 21 May 2014, 09:04

    ...  What a Face 
    from lil sister via email...
    ...imported goods from Kapistan...

    "There are a lot of posts being made on other sites stating Maliki is done, Hakim will have the largest bloc and get to choose the next PM, etc.  These are false.  Yes, the new National Alliance which consists of Hakim, Sadr and Allawi is somewhere between 170-190 seats, but they do not get the right to form a government first.  Maliki won the most seats and therefore (he claims) is given first chance to build a coalition (and he has wasted little time starting to pick away at that unified alliance) exceeding 165+ to form the government.  This is anything but over.  Maliki will not go away quietly...the math is not on his side...but Maliki has time on his side.  He will squat for however long it takes to strike a deal..."

    "...Maliki has already stated he has first right since his bloc won the most seats...we do know Maliki changes the rules to suit him.  I will say this, if this article is correct (link below), it would be a "turn the tables on Maliki" moment since he probably used that last time in 2010 to get his way...he only had 89 seats in 2010 to Allawi's 91..."
    http://www.ninanews.com/english/News_Details.asp?ar95_VQ=HEHLHF

    ...the rules change all the time, or they wiggle around the rules.  But technically there is supposed to be a window of about 30-45 days in which to build the largest coalition (when that starts and ends is wide open).  Once it is agreed and a coalition exceeds the 165 + needed,  parliament will call a session in which those candidates will be presented and voted on.  Just like a bill, it requires a quorum and majority votes to elect.  Maliki has several tricks yet in the bag like not showing up (lack of quorum) or instructing the MPs to vote against the proposed candidate."


    my too sense...  What a Face 

    You never know about the reliability of an article until a little time has passed...sometimes these articles are simply isolated, reactionary rhetoric from a disgruntled source...but, if this article (referenced above, posted below) turns out to be valid and reliable, it could be a harbinger of the beginning of the end of the malarki era and we should be seeing more confirming articles and tweets being released in the near future...
    ...so in the meantime, IMO, its wise to maintain a sense of hovering neutrality, conservative mind-set, guard your emotions and by all means avoid the seductive guruian hype that will surely come forth soon enough with premature prognostication and over-interpretation of news articles, perhaps sprinkled with artificially sweetened  "secret" intel...
    ......but regardless of how the new GOI ends up, Iraq is still at an economic crossroads and doing nothing about currency reform is not an option...
    .........and so we watch and wait...


    MP: Maliki will not be able to form the next government in spite of getting a large number of seats
    20/05/2014 08:59:00

    BAGHDAD / NINA / The MP, of the Ahrar bloc, Hussein Hamham said that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will not be able to form the next government in spite of getting a large number in the elections .

    He told the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA / "The Federal Court has interpreted the issue of government formation by the largest parliamentary bloc, which is formed after the elections, which does not mean the winning bloc, that shows that Maliki will face difficulties to form a government unless allied with other blocs to get half plus one . "

    He added, "The appeals' door will be open and this what the IHEC has confirmed. And all blocs will submit their appeals, pointing out that those appeals may change a lot of the winning blocs announced by the Commission yesterday ."

    It is mentioned that the IHEC has announced yesterday the results of the parliamentary elections which were held in 30 April, where the state of law got / 95 / seats in the next House of Representatives followed by Sadrist blocs collectively with / 34 / seats , while the citizen bloc came third winner by / 31 / seats. / End

    http://www.ninanews.com/english/News_Details.asp?ar95_VQ=HEHLHF
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 21 May 2014, 19:38

    ...  What a Face 
    Probably best to tune into non-dinarian influenced rhetoric these days...the dinarian rhetoric is usually contaminated...

    Iraq Solidarity News (ISN) tweet...
    Despite Bloody Conflict, Iraq's Leader Looks Likely To Keep Power...
    NPR (blog)
    http://t.co/cLJjOG9Q7A
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  butterfly on Wed 21 May 2014, 20:25

    goodyboy wrote:...  What a Face 
    Probably best to tune into non-dinarian influenced rhetoric these days...the dinarian rhetoric is usually contaminated...

    Iraq Solidarity News (ISN) tweet...
    Despite Bloody Conflict, Iraq's Leader Looks Likely To Keep Power...
    NPR (blog)
    http://t.co/cLJjOG9Q7A

    You will never convince "some" to look past the guru speak....ain't gonna happen GB. LOL
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 21 May 2014, 22:45

    ...  What a Face 
    presumptuous malarki...
    ...a legend in his own mind...


    al-Maliki himself as Prime Minister for a third session, reaching out to the Kurds and Sunnis
    21/5/2014

    Palm-language Victor invited the leader of the State of law coalition and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's political bloc won election to the opening to the rule of law, and to accelerate the "majority government" advocated since the days of the election campaign.

    In an attempt to forestall any possibility of forming a Government run by the biggest adversaries within the National Alliance and the leader of the sadrist movement of Moqtada Sadr, the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council Ammar al-Hakim, Al-Maliki said at a Baghdad press conference after announcing election results: «I invite all won to openness to the law and speed up the hearing House to form a Government of the majority, which majority understanding on software».

    Al-Maliki said that "National Alliance of Government, will also run the largest component within the coalition Government coming», «the demands of the Kurds and the rest of the political blocs would be satisfaction if the Constitution, adding that" those who choose the role of the opposition in Parliament is to contribute to nation-building in terms of exercising the oversight role, to put sticks in the wheels of Government.

    He called Al-Maliki to "feel the injustice in the results to the right and legal way as the State of law and Maliki's announcement that the largest component within the National Alliance is run as a confirmation that it is the only candidate from the premise that the rule of law (93 seats) is the largest component within the Shiite Alliance, which means that it cut off completely the possibility that each of the wise or chest candidates to head the Government for the State of law candidate (by Opinion of some).

    In this context, a member of Parliament from the sadrist Governor Al-zamily told the media that "no one has the right to claim their maturity and act accordingly, but not all of the wishes or requests something could have done.

    He said «speak through the media is not the talk behind the scenes or in mini-meetings», «national coalition this time would be very different from the past so we set specifications for the next Prime Minister in a different manner, in the light of these specifications can Al-Maliki to compete for the post, just as we in the Sadr and the Supreme Council candidates for the job.

    Zamily that «change approach called for by the reference and called people requires dealing with another method how to form the next Government in response to a question about the eight Committee formed by the National Alliance, with a view to restructuring the UN Committee said Iraq continues to work normally and you will reach the inevitable result in re-establishment of National Alliance through an internal system is real and therefore it is no longer acceptable policy conditions and attitudes.

    If Al-Maliki's National Alliance not to run for a third term will rest blocks attached, said Iraq '' We work to make the National Alliance Corporation powerful and coherent, and any party out of it even if it does not affect managed to gather a majority and form the Government with other parties.

    Said the national list led by Iyad Allawi that there is agreement that there is a third term regardless of the results. Hadi alzalmy said media adviser to the leader of the "National Park of the third mandate reduced, which is shared by the well-known political blocs announced clear positions in this direction», «past experience was not successful at all, so no one would think so, and what we want to stress is we want to change the political approach because we do not want the recurrence of crises and their tragedies to the Iraqi people over the past years, which makes us need powerful new Government able to On the implementation of the programme being agreed by all the parties in the framework of a true partnership.

    http://www.microsofttranslator.com/BV.aspx?ref=IE8Activity&a=http%3A%2F%2Fnakhelnews.com%2Fpages%2Fsnews.php%3Fnid%3D33118
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 22 May 2014, 10:42

    ...  What a Face 
    Joel Wing tweet (Iraqi analyst)...
    Can Maliki's opponents stick together or will they split like they have in the past?
    http://t.co/TLFs8jY6Kx

    Musings on Iraq...
    Thursday, May 22, 2014
    Will Iraq’s Prime Minister Gain A 3rd Term?

    Iraq’s 2014 parliamentary elections were all about Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Most of the major lists explicitly ran against the premier. Those included Moqtada al-Sadr’s Ahrar/Liberals, the Supreme Islamic Council of Iraq’s (ISCI) Mowatin/Citizen’s Alliance, Speaker Osama Nujafi’s Mutahidun/Uniters, Kurdish President Massoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), and Iyad Allawi’s Wataniya/Nationalist Coalition. Since the vote on April 30 all of those parties have said Maliki staying in office was a redline, and have talked about forming a government of their own. The problem is that these parties have never been able to stay united, thus opening opportunities for the prime minister to split them apart.

    Maliki’s State of Law (SOL) was the undisputed winner of the 2014 balloting. His list came away with 95 seats, up from 89 in 2010. Given all the opposition he was facing it was notable that he was able to make a slight gain. After that Moqtada al-Sadr’s Ahrar, and his two other parties he ran received 34 seats down from 39 in 2010. ISCI won 31 up from 20, Speaker Osama Nujafi’s Mutahidun got 27, President Massoud Barzani’s KDP’s finished with 25 down from 28, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) got 21 up from 14, Iyad Allawi’s Wataniya had 21 down from 31, Deputy Premier Saleh al-Mutlaq’s Arabiya got 11, a six seat increase. Goran/Change won 9 up from 7, Ibrahim al-Jaafari’s National Reform Trend finished with 6 up from 1, Fadhila/Virtue got 6 seats down from 7. The new Iraq Coalition and Civilian Democratic Alliance won 5 and 4 seats respectively. Finally the Kurdish Islamist parties the Kurdistan Islamic Union got 4 seats and the Kurdistan Islamic Group 3, with the latter losing one seat from 2010.

    Maliki’s opponents have all said they would not allow him another term. May 21 for example, President Barzani allegedly hosted a meeting with Iyad Allawi and the Supreme Council’s Adel Abdul Mahdi to discuss forming an alliance against the premier. If all the opponents actually came together they would have 170 seats, five more than is required to form a new government. The problem as ever is that this is a loose and fractious coalition. Mutahidun for example is proposing a grand Sunni alliance made up of itself, Allawi’s Nationalists and Mutlaq’s Arabiya. The problem is that Mutlaq has been open to working with Maliki in the past and may be so in the future. Another issue is that the only thing holding these parties together is their hatred of the prime minister. Otherwise they have different views on policy. For example, the Sadrists and Supreme Council believe in the central government controlling oil exports, while the Kurdish parties want to be able to export on their own while still agreeing to revenue sharing with Baghdad.

    This time around however, Maliki might have made these parties so mad at him that they may be able to overcome their differences and maintain their unity enough to push him out. That will be far in the future as the government formation process may take up to a year. In the meantime the lists are stuck in the complaints phase with most of the anti-Maliki factions claiming that he cheated. After the Election Commission deals with each of these accusations, the lists will then move into the negotiation phase. That provides plenty of time for Maliki to persuade and cajole these lists to join him instead.

    While many Iraq observers believe that the prime minister’s 90 plus seats has guaranteed him another term it doesn’t appear as clear-cut as that. His opponents have enough seats to make a government. Iraqi politics is never that easy however. There are still months of talks lying ahead during which Maliki’s opposition will have to show staying power otherwise he will play divide and conquer with them as he has done in the past. In 2012 for instance there was a no confidence move against the premier, but the Sadrists pulled out and the effort failed. In those two years the dislike and distrust in the prime minister has grown. The question is, is that enough to make a new government? Only time will tell.
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 22 May 2014, 15:37

    ...  What a Face 

    goodhoody retweet...
    Maliki's political bloc State of Law officially nominated Maliki today for a 3rd term.
    https://twitter.com/kaperoni/status/469560907824386048

    State law establishes the evening nomination of Nuri al-Maliki as prime minister
    05/22/2014 20:25

    BAGHDAD / obelisk: MP for the coalition of state law, Mahmoud Hassan, on Thursday, that his coalition will decide this evening, the nomination of Nuri al-Maliki as prime minister

    http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%25D9%2585%25D9%2586%25D8%25B8%25D9%2585%25D8%25A9%2B%25D8%25A7%25D9%2584%25D8%25AA%25D8%25AC%25D8%25A7%25D8%25B1%25D8%25A9%2B%25D8%25A7%25D9%2584%25D8%25B9%25D8%25A7%25D9%2584%25D9%2585%25D9%258A%25D8%25A9%2B%25D8%25A7%25D9%2584%25D8%25B9%25D8%25B1%25D8%25A7%25D9%2582%26lr%3D%26hl%3Den%26tbs%3Dqdr:d&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=ar&u=http://www.almasalah.com/ar/news/30735/%25D8%25AF%25D9%2588%25D9%2584%25D8%25A9-%25D8%25A7%25D9%2584%25D9%2582%25D8%25A7%25D9%2586%25D9%2588%25D9%2586-%25D9%258A%25D9%2582%25D8%25B1%25D8%25B1-%25D9%2585%25D8%25B3%25D8%25A7%25D8%25A1-%25D8%25A7%25D9%2584%25D9%258A%25D9%2588%25D9%2585-%25D8%25AA%25D8%25B1%25D8%25B4%25D9%258A%25D8%25AD-&usg=ALkJrhiUrZE8fkbgow6G3UNuY4wuTP0cVA




    State of Law coalition nominates Maliki for a third term
    22/5/2014



    Follow-up - and babysit - announced a coalition of state law, led by Nuri al-Maliki, on Thursday, the nomination of its leader for a third term as prime minister, after several days of announcement of results of the parliamentary elections.

    The semi-official al-Iraqiya: "The State of Law coalition decided at a meeting of the coalition and all its components, this evening, to nominate its leader, Nouri al-Maliki for a third term as prime minister.

    The parliamentary election results announced by the Electoral Commission for elections in the 19 of May 2014, for State of Law coalition led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki on first place by winning 92 seats, while dissolved blocks Sadrists came in second with 34 seats, while the coalition of citizens, led by Prime Council Ammar al-Hakim on third place with 31 seats.

    http://alrayy.com/111419.htm
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 22 May 2014, 18:56

    from lil sister at happyhour...  What a Face 
    ...noteworthy commentary from abroad..."squatting"

    The "squatting" period has not started yet. His party won majority of votes so they've earned the right to bring forth a PM nominee for  a vote first. We are now right in the middle of the protocol that allows them some time do do this - 30 to 40 days or so, I think. At that point in time they reveal their hand, Malaki will know if he is toast or not. If he is not chosen by his own party, and refuses to leave, then his squatting begins...

    Also see post #19, butter link below...  What a Face 
    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2079-may-22-2014#30029
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Fri 23 May 2014, 15:00

    ...  What a Face 
    is Iran the joker card?

    ISN tweet...
    https://twitter.com/iraqsolidarity/status/469912027943534592



    Iraq’s future looks more like Kurdistan
    5/22/2014

    By Marina Ottaway, Special to CNN

    Editor’s note: Marina Ottaway is a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center. The views expressed are the writer’s own.

    Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has emerged as the clear winner of the Iraqi parliamentary elections. His State of Law coalition has won at least 92 seats of the 328 seats in the Council of Representatives, three times as many as the next largest party. In the 2010 elections, in contrast, al-Maliki lost by two seats to Ayad Allawi’s Iraqiyya Party, a coalition of secular Shia and Sunni organizations that has now completely disintegrated.

    There is therefore no doubt that al-Maliki will be asked by the president (when parliament can agree on one) to form the new government. In 2010, he had to battle with Allawi for months to get that chance. But putting together a coalition with the needed 164 votes may prove even harder than in 2010, when the process lasted nine months, only coming to an end with an agreement to form a government of national reconciliation in which all parties participated.

    This time, al-Maliki has already announced that he does not want another government of national unity, but he will find it difficult to get sufficient support. After four years of increasingly authoritarian rule, the prime minister has little backing among Sunnis and Kurds, and has even failed to unite Shias behind him. Eventually, al-Maliki will probably succeed, but not without making major concessions that would give him a third term as prime minister but also change the country toward a confederal form of government.

    The Shia parties of Ammar al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr (theoretically now retired from politics but still quite involved) have a combined 65 seats and are on record as opposing a third term for al-Maliki. So is Allawi’s Wataniyya coalition, which secured 21 seats. The Kurdish parties, with 62 seats, are also against him and threatening to organize a referendum on independence if he stays on as prime minister for a third term. And there is no love lost between al-Maliki and the major Sunni parties. If all these declared opponents remain lined up against him, al-Maliki would face an opposition bloc block of about 180 seats and thus could not prevail. (Figures are not precise because some seats are still object of disputes)

    So, can he get the support of some his present detractors? In the case of Hakim and Sadr, the answer will come from Tehran. If Iran continues backing al-Maliki, as it did in 2010 together with the United States, it will press all Shia parties to stay together. Al-Maliki could then put together a majority with the help of smaller parties. But a predominantly Shia government would be weak, encourage Kurdistan to move toward independence, and increase anger – and with it the influence of Islamist radicals – among Sunnis.

    Kurdish parties, which are negotiating as a block, would probably agree to back al-Maliki if offered what they really want: an agreement by Baghdad to let Kurdistan export its oil and gas directly, though paying Baghdad the 83 percent of revenue both sides agree is the central government’s share. With a pipeline linking Kurdish fields directly to Ceyhan in Turkey, and two and a half million barrels of oil stored there waiting to be sold, Kurdistan can export oil. An agreement with Baghdad has proven elusive so far, but in an attempt to press the Kurdish authorities into submission, al-Maliki has suspended the payment of Kurdistan’s share of oil revenue, causing anger and increasing pro-independence sentiments among the Kurds. But if he allowed Kurdistan to export its oil and gas directly, implicitly agreeing on their interpretation of the constitution, the Kurds would likely be willing to back him and shelve the idea of independence for the time being.

    Such an agreement would have far reaching ramifications for Iraq because a growing number of provinces, including all Sunni and even some Shia ones, are talking openly of following the example of Kurdistan and becoming autonomous regions, as the constitution in theory allows.

    Kurdistan, much criticized in 2005 for insisting on a constitution that granted them autonomy at the expense of Iraqi unity, is now seen by many as the example to be emulated – compared to the rest of Iraq, Kurdistan is a model of stability and its economy is flourishing. If Baghdad recognized the right of Kurdistan to export its own oil, other provinces would demand the same and Iraq would turn into a federation with a weak central government or even a confederation. There is much talk of such a solution, particularly in the embattled Sunni provinces.

    Elated by his victory, al-Maliki is sounding uncompromising, and although he has declared that he is open to work with any political party, he has made it clear that it would be strictly on his own terms. For example, he has told the Kurdish party that they are welcome in a government coalition as long as they accept his interpretation of the constitution, thus renounce their ambition to export oil independently.

    Ultimately, all sides will try to stare each other down before they finally start bargaining in earnest. But while at the end of the process al-Maliki will probably still be prime minister, Iraq will be a different country.

    http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2014/05/22/iraqs-future-looks-more-like-kurdistan/
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Sun 25 May 2014, 17:54

    ...  What a Face 
    Iraq Solidarity News tweet...
    https://twitter.com/iraqsolidarity/status/470676921106173952

    Were Iraqi polls rigged?



    With the initial euphoria over, many Iraqis are asking if their country’s parliamentary elections were free or fair, writes Salah Nasrawi

    An alliance headed by Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki has been declared as having received the largest number of seats in Iraq’s elections last month, but many of his political opponents doubt the vote’s fairness and claim massive fraud.

    If proved, the allegations of irregularities and vote-rigging will cast shadows over the legitimacy of the new parliament elected on 30 April and may further worsen the decade-long political ructions and sectarian violence that have been largely blamed on the nation’s political class.

    Iraq’s Independent Higher Election Commission (IHEC) announced on Monday that Al-Maliki’s State of Law Alliance had won 92 out of 328 parliamentary seats. His main rivals finished with between nine and 34 seats overall.

    Smaller blocs received between one and six seats. A potential new prime minister would need the support of a total of 165 members. Negotiations to build a coalition to form a new government will likely drag on for weeks, if not months, observers say.

    Prior to the IHEC’s announcement, several political leaders and blocs made complaints about alleged electoral fraud and warned of dire consequences to come.

    Former prime minister Iyad Allawi talked about “irregularities” comitted during the polling process and slammed the IHEC as biased. He also claimed to have won the majority of votes in Baghdad.

    “The commission is not qualified to run the elections,” Allawi said at a press conference, accusing Al-Maliki of having prevented him from securing top place in the polls. The leader of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, Ammar Al-Hakim, warned of “rigging or irregularities” in the polls, calling on the commission to work in a more professional way.

    Al-Hakim, whose Al-Muwatin, or Citizen, bloc came third in the elections with 29 seats, had threatened a “decisive response” if the results of the elections were “illogical”. Early unofficial results showed that the bloc had won more than 40 seats.

    The Al-Ahrar Bloc which is affiliated to the popular Shia cleric Muqtada Al-Sadr came second with 34 seats and pointed the finger at Al-Maliki’s bloc for alleged fraud and warned it would go to court to challenge the results.

    Sunni groups also complained of election mishaps, claiming forgery had been used in favour of candidates supported by Al-Maliki. Another complaint was that systematic efforts had been made to disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of Sunnis in flashpoints around Baghdad.

    The Arabia Alliance of Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Saleh Al-Mutleq appealed for the United Nations and the Arab League to carry out investigations. The Kurdish parties also exchanged accusations of fraud.

    While the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and its allies accused the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) of rigging the elections in Sulaimaniya, the latter said it had registered irregularities in Erbil, the stronghold of the KDP.

    In response, the IHEC rubbished allegations of fraud at the polls, insisting that the balloting had been handled in a professional and transparent way.

    However, it said it had received some 2,030 complaints. The main bone of contention has been the Al-Maliki government’s direct or procedural interference in the elections. Reported irregularities include the unfair use of state resources and bribery to induce voters.

    A video widely circulated on social networks showed a member Al-Maliki’s State of Law Alliance inducing voters in a southern province to vote for his bloc in exchange for plots of land, saying that he was speaking on behalf of Al-Maliki.

    During the election campaign Al-Maliki himself was filmed distributing title deeds for plots of land owned by the government. Al-Maliki’s coalition had largely based its electoral campaign on promising government jobs, especially in the police and the army which are under Al-Maliki’s direct control.

    “They used political money and did not refrain from using the state apparatus and [government] posts and state resources in their campaigns,” Jassim Al-Halfi, an unsuccessful candidate for the Civil and Democratic Alliance, wrote on his Facebook page.

    The blocs also deplored what they called the polarisation and bias of the state-owned media during the elections. State-run television was widely seen as being supportive of Al-Maliki through broadcasts including live coverage of his campaign.

    Some of the irregularities that are believed to have occurred involved assisting illiterate voters to cast their ballots. There are more than six million illiterate people in Iraq, and the media noted a worryingly high number of assisted voters in many polling stations, where ballots were marked in favour of Al-Maliki’s candidates.

    In some cases it was reported that literate people were told to claim they were illiterate so that they could be assisted by Al-Maliki’s staff. The complaints also included ballot stuffing, intimidation, stealing or destroying ballot boxes and threatening election officials.

    There have been numerous reports of Al-Maliki’s using the soaring violence that has hit Iraq to ensure his success. Voting was halted in a third of Anbar, where Sunni insurgents control the city of Fallujah and parts of the western desert province.

    “By prolonging the crisis [in Fallujah] he has benefited his allies,” said Liqaa Wardi, a Sunni member of the outgoing parliament. Ameer Al-Kinani of the Sadrist Movement accused the commission of fabricating results in Abu Ghraib, a Sunni-dominated district.

    He doubted the reported 90 per cent turn out and 80 per cent support for Al-Maliki in this hotbed of anti-government resistance west of Baghdad.

    In Maysan, a stronghold of the Sadrist Movement which had won the two previous national and provincial elections, Al-Maliki surprisingly won four seats over the Sadrists who received only three.

    Among other allegations of fraud by the ruling Al-Maliki bloc has been forcing military and security personnel to vote for the prime minister. The uniformed services, whose leaders are under the command of Al-Maliki, voted a week earlier in a special vote as they were to be on duty during the elections.

    More police are alleged to have registered to vote than are on the state payroll. Some of the charges of irregularities have been leveled against the IHEC itself. Following the announcement of the results, Al-Hakim’s bloc accused the commission of tampering with some of the ballot boxes.

    It also pointed to pressure put on the commission to disqualify some of the candidates There is no information about how many of the ballot papers were printed or if they were in line with international standards, raising concerns of the accountability of the unused ballots.

    In some cases the commission was reported to have paid non-state broadcasters large amounts of money to put a positive spin on the elections and praise the commission. Most blocs also complained about delays in releasing the results, which they said had probably been used to change them.

    The commission has denied the charges, with chief commissioner Sarbast Mustafa saying it had annulled the results of 300 polling stations for reported violations and that more than 1,000 electoral workers had been referred to the judicial authorities for investigation.

    It said it had made it obligatory for all Iraqis to receive electronic voting cards in order to cast their ballots. Voters were also asked to dip their fingers in indelible ink to prevent double voting. Doubts have also been raised about the monitoring of the elections.

    The commission said some 350 foreign observers had participated in monitoring the elections, in addition to thousands of election monitors representative of Iraq’s competing political parties themselves. However, the IHEC banned one of the prominent observation groups from monitoring the elections after it had criticised its pre-balloting arrangements.

    On Monday, the Shams Network for Election Monitoring reported massive irregularities, including ballot stuffing in Baghdad in favour of Al-Maliki’s bloc. Both the United Nations and the United States welcomed the results.

    The US embassy in Baghdad described the elections as “another milestone in the democratic development of Iraq,” but neither the UN nor the US talked about the credibility of the elections. Electoral fraud has not been uncommon in post-Saddam Iraq.

    In the previous two polls, held when Iraq was still under US occupation, talk of fraud was common even if it was not reported in the mainstream western press, which was too busy trumpeting Iraq’s so-called nascent democracy.

    Iraq’s elections have proved once again that they are likely to continue to produce a sectarian wasteland instead of a genuine democracy or a stable and crisis-free Iraq.

    If the results of last month’s polls mean anything, they prove that power-hungry politicians will continue to use sectarianism as their driving force, even through a parliament whose legitimacy is increasingly in doubt.

    http://iraq-solidarity.blogspot.com/2014/05/were-iraqs-polls-rigged.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 26 May 2014, 15:44

    ...  What a Face 
    https://twitter.com/kaperoni/status/470995856221425664

    Kap tweets...
    from Iraqi TV transcripts: "SOL announced today that as soon as election results are final they will file for a majority government with Maliki...As much as I would like to see him out, he is not going away quietly.  This will get interesting in the next few weeks."
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 29 May 2014, 11:12

    ...  What a Face 
    Joel Wing (Iraqi analyst) tweets...

    Hakim-Sadr trying to re-form Nat Alliance & include State of Law, but stopping Maliki's 3rd term is a futile effort...
    Sadr-Hakim trying to include 2 term limit for premier in Nat Alliance rules...Maliki will never agree...
    http://musingsoniraq.blogspot.com/2014/05/re-forming-national-alliance-may-be.html

    MUSINGS ON IRAQ
    Iraq News, Politics, Economics, Society

    Thursday, May 29, 2014
    Re-Forming National Alliance May Be Waste Of Time For Iraq’s Shiite Parties

    Since Iraq held parliamentary elections on April 30, 2014 the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) led by Ammar Hakim and the Ahrar bloc led by Moqtada al-Sadr have moved to re-form the National Alliance, which emerged during the last round of balloting in 2010. Hakim and Sadr have talked about institutionalizing the alliance as the representative of the Shiite religious parties and make it the main decision maker as to who should be nominated prime minister. The problem is that it seeks to include Premier Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law (SOL), while opposing his third term in office. This means that this entire exercise may be a futile act.

    Sadr (left) and Hakim (right) have been trying to bring back the National Alliance to stop Maliki from a third term but it is unlikely to work (Al Kashf)

    As soon as voting was over in Iraq the major Shiite religious parties began talking about the National Alliance (NA). On April 30, the day of the balloting ISCI head Ammar Hakim called for the NA to be brought back. Ten days later Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the Fadhila party made similar comments, and then on May 13, members of the National Alliance met with Maliki. Since then much of the talk has been about making the coalition a formal organization that represents the Shiite parties, and therefore has the right to name the prime minister. The Sadrists and Supreme Council have been trying to set up formal rules to make this happen. At the same time they want to include a two-term limit on the premiership. Shiites are the majority of the population in Iraq, and because of the ethnosectarian quota system they receive the premiership. What ISCI and the Sadrists are trying to do is simply codify control over that position. At the same time they want to prevent Maliki from maintaining his office.

    Therein lies the problem with the alliance. State of Law has stated that since it won the most seats in the balloting the National Alliance should follow its lead and approve Maliki as prime minister again. It has also mentioned forming a government without the coalition. Sadr and Hakim have little leverage over the situation right now. Even if they were able to get Fadhila and Ibrahim Jaafari’s National Reform Movement the two other members of the Alliance to join them they would only have 77 seats compared to SOL’s 95. Only if Maliki came to them for support and they were able to remain unified, which is not a given would they have some say.

    The National Alliance may have passed its prime. Sadr and Hakim are hoping that the coalition will allow them to name the next prime minister. The problem is that they oppose Maliki and he will never go along with their attempts to block him from a third term. Instead of trying to bring back the NA the Sadrists and ISCI would be better served if they started negotiations with other Maliki opponents such as Kurdish President Massoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), Speaker of Parliament Osama Nujafi’s Mutahidun, and Iyad Allawi’s Nationalists. Together they could pose a real counter to Maliki. Instead they are fighting a losing battle within the National Alliance.

    SOURCES

    Hasan, Harith, “Prospects of Shiite ‘National Alliance’ hinge on Maliki,” Al Monitor, 5/22/14

    Iraq Times, “National Coalition declares its readiness for an alliance with the state of law in the absence of Maliki’s nomination for a third term,” 5/22/14

    Al Mada, “National Alliance held a meeting in the presence of al-Maliki: securing a good atmosphere between the government and the parliament is necessary,” 5/13/14

    New Sabah, “”Citizens” and “Liberals” talking about “strong government” and Erbil raise the ceiling demands: annexation of Kirkuk and Khanaqin,” 5/22/14

    Al Rafidayn, “Hakim: We still start from now re-formation of the National Alliance,” 4/30/14
    - “Maliki and the Virtue Party underline the importance of activating the National Alliance to build a strong government,” 5/10/14
    - “State of Law: we will form a government without reference to the National Alliance,” 5/10/14

    Al Rayy, “The political body of the National Alliance emphasizes the need to “develop” rules of procedure,” 5/22/14

    Shafaq News, “Ahrar bloc: We will face the difficulty in adopting rules of procedure of the National Alliance for one reason,” 5/26/14
    - “Jaafari Movement: The quest to define the mandate of Prime Minister is contrary to the Constitution,” 5/27/14
    - “National Alliance agree on writing internal system and mechanism of decision-making by naming Prime Minister,” 5/18/14

    Yunus, Muhammad, “Analyst: National Alliance differences may lead to disintegration,” Radio Free Iraq, 5/26/14
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Fri 30 May 2014, 13:32

    ...  What a Face 

    Kirk Sowell tweets...
    https://twitter.com/UticensisRisk/status/472374107346984962

    @AliJunoobi ..threat to Maliki is within the SLC. If he is stopped, it will be there.  Well, I'd say about 40% of Sunni MPs are either aligned with or open to Maliki. That's enough if he can get ISCI to deal.  Maliki's hand will not be forced by the KRG. The gap between him & Irbil is vastly greater than other parties, & his base would implode if he tried that. Maliki doesn't need even a single Kurdish seat to form a majority. He does need the ISCI.
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 02 Jun 2014, 10:08

    ...  What a Face 
    Joel Wing (Iraqi analyst) retweet...

    #Iraq's state TV leading with news that Maliki now claims he has support from 175 MPs. PM can form a majoritarian government if that's true.
    https://twitter.com/Hayder_alKhoei/status/473457137591779330
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Fri 06 Jun 2014, 10:27

    ...  What a Face 



    niqash.org tweets...
    https://twitter.com/niqash/status/474840325048254465

    Politics in #Iraq not about serving the country, but about power, status, money. That's why MPs are busy swapping sides...

    Why do #Iraq's politicians change sides so much and so easily? Bribes + no law on how local politics should work:
    http://t.co/TXq30FWLJg
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Sat 07 Jun 2014, 11:24

    ...  What a Face 
    the translation is a little convoluted, but it's revealing once again that Iran has their finger in the political pot...
    ...but this all sounds like posturing and political chest beating to me...we will see...

    Hakim al-Sadr alliance collect 210 MPs in favor of the change-Maliki
    6/7/2014

    A member of the coalition of citizens Ahmed Chalabi, the winning candidate within the circle of Baghdad for the parliamentary elections, confirmed on follow up that the  'alliance Hakim - the chest (coffer of support) was able to collect 210 MPs in favor of the 'change-Maliki'.

    Chalabi said, "undeclared (underground) movements conducted by the leader of the Islamic Supreme Council along with the blessing of Moqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Sadrist movement, have resulted in the collection of 210 deputies with the idea (intention) of ​​changing the Prime Minister outgoing Nuri al-Maliki."

    Meanwhile, sources high up in the National Alliance has been directed (regarding one of the main negotiators for a coalition of state law from Iran) to persuade Iran to intervene to soften the position of the Sadrists and the Supreme Council of al-Maliki, at a time when Iran has confirmed that the cohesion of the National Alliance is of the most importance to al-Maliki.

    The senior political source said that "Tarek Najm is the most important negotiator with al-Maliki, and has large admissibility (approval) in Iran, but he is not welcome in the National Alliance, particularly by the Supreme Council and the Sadrists and the Reform Movement and the National Congress who were cautious about his candidacy privately."

    The source said that "the objectors believe that the star (chosen one) is not much different from al-Maliki in his policy exclusionary and marginalizing opponents, especially since the National Alliance announced that they will begin a new phase of dialogue, calling for the formation of fronts from Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish, to form a powerful government and believes the partnership is not marginalized."

    The internal and external dialogues will focus on the issue of replacing Maliki's nomination after announcing that his coalition explicitly abandoned the National Alliance in any way."

    The source added that the "coalition of the rule of law is the only one who asked for this candidate for prime minister, despite the existence of significant differences within the coalition regarding the candidacy of Nouri al-Maliki," adding that "the candidate must have the admissibility (approval) of the rest of the political blocs that will negotiate with the National Alliance to form a government."

    He explained that "Maliki's nomination is an obstacle to the other major political blocs, which calls for a search for replacements for the real owners (of the government)."

    Read more...
    http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.faceiraq.com/inews.php%3Fid%3D2779301&usg=ALkJrhgnlAEMebxmfNagbBEqTOGVPYKngA


    Last edited by goodyboy on Sat 07 Jun 2014, 11:58; edited 4 times in total (Reason for editing : translation edits...)
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Sat 07 Jun 2014, 11:33

    ...  What a Face 
    ISN tweet...

    Law: Discussions still ongoing between the political blocks re agreement in identifying a candidate for the next prime minister...
    http://translate.google.com/translate?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.faceiraq.com/inews.php%3Fid%3D2778995
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Sun 08 Jun 2014, 23:44

    ...  What a Face
    I wonder who the "star" really is...

    Khamenei does not support al-Maliki and the names of four of the current (proposals for) prime minister
    Monday, June 9, 2014

    Baghdad / Orr News

    Credible political sources said that Tehran has not taken a final position on the issue of forming the next government and did not suggest a name for the presidency, and that is contrary to what the members of the coalition is trying to do with diffusion of the state law (SLC).

    The sources indicated that "the religious leadership of Iran does not want to have its position Mottagataa position with reference Najaf, Consistent with this, the resolution of Tehran is awaiting word from Sistani with reference to the process of naming the next head of government."

    The sources pointed out that "there are four names approved with the blessing and support of the Iraqi political forces and there is no veto by Iranian or American, they are: Adel Abdul Mahdi and Tariq Ahmad Chalabi and Ibrahim al-Jaafari and a star."

    The sources pointed out that "al-Maliki if he is certain that his chance to return to the palace of government has become non-existent, he will insist on the choice of henchman and his chief of staff and closest to him Tariq star to head the government, while the Islamic Council, it does not tend to star preferably Chalabi or Adel Abdul-Mahdi as heralding the Sadrists Dr. Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who believe in tolerance and Artakaúh an opportunity to influence the return to the state and the street together. "

    Americans, according to sources, have no clear vision or specific position adopted by Washington about the future of Baghdad during the next four years, but the former U.S. ambassador in Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad, does not conceal his desire to return al-Maliki to head the government, but the conditions of them to get rid of last tendency acquisitions and exclusion and to return to his approach in the management of the state during his first term.

    ...sources did not rule out the fact that all these names at a given moment and to highlight the name of the scene is not punctual any party to fill the position, which was and remains the subject of dispute and conflict and the removal and replacement.

    http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.uragency.net%2Fpolicy%2F1876-2014-06-07-09-44-25.html&sandbox=1
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 09 Jun 2014, 10:11

    ...  What a Face 
    this could get interesting as things come to a head...
    ...IMO, this sounds like more malarki and political posturing...a little like bullying...


    After failing to nominate a prime minister .. Maliki government paves the way for "emergency"
    Monday, June 9, 2014

    Baghdad / Orr News

    Warned Iraqi sources familiar with the probability of declaring a state of emergency in the country, describing the sword of Damocles on the neck of the political process after less than a week after the end of the constitutional mandate of the House of Representatives on the fourteenth of this month, making the caretaker government able constitutionally to declare a state of emergency for the defense of the country against (sectarian).

    Kataat state law and has called for political blocs to overcome their differences and support the armed forces in the fight against terrorism after failing in the last eight of the National Alliance to agree on mechanisms for naming the next prime minister.

    The sources revealed that the concerns but are the result of the failure of the last eight in the adoption of the rules of procedure of the National Alliance after it refused to state law to withdraw the nomination of its leader, Nouri al-Maliki for a third term against the employment of the tragic events of the acts of terrorism in Samarra and Mosul, and perhaps soon in Baghdad, including qualifies Maliki to impose his authority through Declaration of a state of emergency, and the postponement of work the results of the recent parliamentary elections, after receiving intelligence information from several Iraqi sources, that the next few days could see a wave of high security threats in the vicinity of Baghdad and inside to target the security of the state and its transition to quality processes to the south because of the presence of terrorist cells in those provinces.

    The source believes that al-Maliki to give himself the powers of military rank convergence rank the Egyptian president to impose his authority and turn into a military commander - a civilian armed forces to cope with regional changes in Egypt, Syria and Libya for the military to receive the reins of governance.

    In the view of these sources that there is a team from the U.S. administration encouraged the emergence of the leadership of the Iraqi military have the ability to impose its authority on the rest of the parties, and confirm these sources, the new U.S. ambassador in Baghdad, touting military leaders Sunni, making Gen. Qassem Soleimani urges Maliki to work to appear Leader military field who had previously led the line jihadist to organize the Islamic Dawa Party and co-operations quality against American interests, stressing that what was published by the newspaper "New York Times" U.S. operations "Daash" in Samarra, and warnings of a return to sectarian war is going in this direction, which promotes his American Embassy in Baghdad.

    http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sandbox=0&sl=ar&tl=en&u=http://www.uragency.net/policy/1930-2014-06-08-08-41-27.html&usg=ALkJrhgrPEfLmzMmDYBsY60tgoam_hObiQ
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 16 Jun 2014, 20:49

    ...  What a Face 
    hmm...

    Maliki's coalition: The first session of the new parliament will be held early next July
    16/06/2014 18:24

    Long-Presse / Baghdad

    State of Law coalition led by Nuri al-Maliki, declared on Monday, that the first session of the new parliament will be held early next July to elect a speaker and two deputies, and called for political blocs to agree on the rest of the political positions.

    The MP  Abbas al-Bayati, of the coalition, said in an interview to the (long-Presse), "The first sessions of the new parliament (will be seated) in the second of next July...the election of the Speaker and his two deputies, and then proceed with the rest of the constitutional process for the formation of the government."

    Al-Bayati said that "the first meeting will be held under the chairmanship of the oldest member, and if you do not agree to the Presidency of the Parliament will adjourn the meeting until agreement is reached on the three positions," calling "the political blocs to agree on a sovereign positions for the formation of the government in order to devote themselves to the country's liberation from the control of terrorism." .

    The Federal Supreme Court, ratified on Monday, the results of the parliamentary elections that took place on the 30th of April 2014, with deferred consideration of four names, without knowing the reasons.

    Announced the Electoral Commission for elections, on Sunday, (June 15, 2014), for it is "sent" the names of the winning candidates membership of the House of Representatives to the Federal Court for approval and announcement of final results, and showed that the judiciary "has completed a review of all appeals," while the promised Committee parliamentary legal delay announcement of the results as "not in the interest of everyone," demanded the Federal Court "quickly announced" in order to direct the formation of the new government.

    The Electoral Commission announced on Wednesday (June 11, 2014), for the resolution of all appeals filed on the results of the elections of the House of Representatives, while the judiciary has shown that the Commission has decided to replace the four candidates in the four provinces.

    Ruled out of the Electoral Commission, in the (June 10, 2014), "for significant changes affect the results of the election" after the completion of the audit appeals, as indicated that the changes will be at the level of "single list", likely to be completed by appeals "after a week."

    The Liberal bloc had predicted, in the (June 10, 2014), to be a scenario of forming the next government different from what happened in 2010, and that the pressing political blocs influential on the election commission to postpone deciding appeals pending "shared the cake", while likely among informed asylum blocks Parliament to "prejudice" the first meeting of a quorum in order to "circumvent" the open meeting, which prevented the Federal Court, expert criticized the Supreme Judicial Council for not more judges seconded to the electoral body to complete the appeals time limit law.

    The Electoral Commission for elections, announced in (the 19th of May 2014 the current), the final results of the elections for the House of Representatives, under which the coalition of al-Maliki, the 95 parliamentary seats, while the replaced blocks Sadrists came in second with 34 seats, the coalition of citizen, ranked third with 31 seats, as the coalition Najafi, the fourth place with 23 seats, while Allawi's coalition won the fifth place with 21 seats out of the seats in the House of Representatives 328.

    The election of thirtieth April 2014, is the third in the country since 2003 and is the first to be held to elect a parliament after the withdrawal of U.S. military from Iraq by the end of 2011, it also saw the use of electronic voting card for the first time.

    http://www.almadapress.com/ar/news/32665/%D8%A7%D8%A6%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%84-%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%A9-%D9%84%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%B1%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 19 Jun 2014, 19:01

    ...  What a Face 
    the grandest delusions of grandeur...

    Maliki refuses condition Washington
    06/19/2014



    The spokesman of the Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki rejected the condition set by the United States and spends his resignation in exchange for the U.S. Air Force launched air raids Alyaljamaat Bdaash of terror in the country.

    The newspaper The Guardian British Zuhair Alnahr spokesman for al-Maliki, said on Thursday that "the West should support immediate efforts by Iraqi government forces against" Daash "instead of demanding a change in government," and stressed that al-Maliki "has not been used at all methods of sectarianism" .

    The newspaper said that Alnahr reported fourth leg in the "BBC" (BBC) as saying, "Our focus has to be on urgent matters such as air support, logistics and intelligence to defeat terrorists who pose a real threat to the stability of Iraq and the region as a whole."

    http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.faceiraq.com/inews.php%3Fid%3D2818264&usg=ALkJrhi-15zHVhZgPyzUK-hBWweZ6z7oOw
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Fri 20 Jun 2014, 20:05

    ...  What a Face 
    major news...
    BAGHDAD (AP) — The most respected voice for Iraq's Shiite majority on Friday joined calls for the country's prime minister to form an inclusive government or step aside, a day after President Barack Obama challenged Nouri al-Maliki to create a leadership representative of all Iraqis.



    Radio Free Iraq...

    Top Shi'ite Cleric Calls For New Government In Iraq: The spiritual leader of Iraq's Shi'ite majority has called for the creation of a new 'effective' government...
    http://t.co/qcRYJ6Qxmu
    http://www.rferl.mobi/a/iraq-sistani-new-government/25429460.html
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 23 Jun 2014, 14:57

    ...  What a Face 
    out of one side of his mouth, then the other...

    Reuters...
    6/23/2014

    No sign of surrender as Iraq's Maliki fights for political life
    http://t.co/QvHmJh7nBG


    Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki speaks during an interview with Reuters

    In eight years in power, Iraq's prime minister Nuri al-Maliki has never faced such a threat. Swathes of his country have fallen to Sunni insurgents. Rivals are seeking his downfall. Foreign sponsors in Washington and Tehran are wary or worse. Even friends are openly contemplating his demise.

    Yet the virtuoso player of Iraq's political game shows no sign of surrendering any time soon.

    His opponents say Maliki is responsible for the vehemence of the insurgency because of policies that alienated Sunnis, pushing tribes to back a revolt by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, which seized the main northern city Mosul on June 10 and has since marched virtually unopposed towards Baghdad.

    Washington, while publicly saying it has no plan to pick Iraq's rulers, has made clear it wants more inclusive leadership in Baghdad. Iran, which has widespread influence among Iraq's Shi'ite parties, has played its cards close but has conspicuously avoided rallying around Maliki.

    Even members of Maliki's own bloc now concede that the combative 64-year-old Islamist may need to go, if rival Shi'ite groups as well as Sunnis and Kurds are to be assembled into a new ruling coalition.

    "Iraq after June 10 is not the same as before. Everything has changed," said a senior member of Maliki's coalition on condition of anonymity. "Everything is on the table ... If the others insist they will only go forward if Maliki is not prime minister, we are ready to discuss it."

    "Maliki will be included in this decision-making and the transition must be smooth. I think he has an open mind about it, and is weighing options. He understands it might come to that," the senior ally said. A second member of Maliki's coalition confirmed there was talk of replacing him from within.

    Six weeks ago, Maliki seemed more secure in power than ever. In an election, his State of Law coalition emerged as easily the biggest party, with 94 seats in the 325-seat legislature. Two rival Shi'ite blocs that had hoped to unseat him fell far short, winning only about 30 seats each.

    In a television address the morning after the vote, he mused with characteristic diffidence that he served only at the nation's request.

    "My mother didn't give birth to me so I could become prime minister. I was born to be a farmer, laborer, student or an official," he said. "I have the honor to serve my country."

    Despite the pressure since then, Maliki could still hold on. Infighting among his own list and other Shi'ite candidates aspiring for his job may let him triumph again.

    The senior Maliki ally said the premier does not want to end his term as the man who presided over Iraq's dissolution. Some, like his close friend Sami Askari, a former parliamentarian, say Iraq cannot afford a leadership change now.

    "People are rallying and marching behind Maliki because of ISIL," Askari said. "His chances are still strong."

    Ultimately, ditching Maliki may be the price his State of Law bloc needs to pay to form a ruling coalition. Iraqi politicians say the lack of endorsements from Washington and Tehran have emboldened rivals to insist on Maliki's departure.

    But the negotiations have barely begun. Parliament, riven with factionalism and egos, is now set to meet by July 1 to begin the process of agreeing the new government, which could take months, leaving Maliki in power as caretaker leader while the war against ISIL rumbles on.

    "I ASSUME HE GOT THE MESSAGE"

    Washington and Tehran are both pushing for a swift resolution. The United States insists it will not choose the next leader of Iraq, but Secretary of State John Kerry, who met Maliki in Baghdad on Monday, has said openly that Washington is aware that Sunnis, Kurds and other Shi'ites are dissatisfied.

    Meetings between Maliki and U.S. diplomats last week were heated, according to a Western diplomat briefed on the sessions by a participant. U.S. officials told Maliki he would need to step aside if he no longer had parliamentary support for a third term, the diplomat said.

    "I assume he got the message, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to get around it," the western diplomat said, adding a phone call with Vice President Joseph Biden was initially cancelled due to the friction generated by the meetings. The phone call was finally held last Wednesday.

    The White House and the U.S. embassy have denied any message has been conveyed to Maliki to leave power. In private, however, U.S. officials, shorn of influence and mindful of a backlash, have hoped for change.

    The disenchantment cuts both ways. Maliki's close friend Askari described the prime minister in recent days as sour towards the United States, stung by sharp criticism from members of the U.S. Congress and over President Barrack Obama's lukewarm support and failure to provide U.S. air strikes.

    "There is a bitterness in Maliki's tone when he talks ... about the American role, even what is going on in DC, with speeches in Congress and Obama's speech," Askari said. "He... has no hope. He says we have to rely on ourselves."

    Commenting on last week's meetings with U.S. diplomats, Askari said: "I heard that it was tense and I expect it because he is not happy with their way.

    "Maliki has no time to sit with anyone just to hear advice and criticism. He needs someone to deliver something to help him. He did not see this."

    The Baghdad government's other major international supporter, Iran, has also been less than enthusiastic in its support for Maliki, although it is not clear if it would be willing to sacrifice him to pursue a coalition.

    "Iran respects the Iraqi nation’s choice. If they don’t want their Prime Minister Maliki, why should we support him?”

    a senior Iranian official told Reuters over the weekend.

    A second senior Iranian official said Iran backs Maliki, but not unreservedly as it does Syria's President Bashar al-Assad.

    "Iran's backing of Maliki is limited and conditional," the second official said. "Iran's ambassador to Iraq has already conveyed this message to Maliki. Iran believes that Maliki should immediately form a wide-ranging cabinet, but at the same time believes that it might be too late."

    EXPOSED

    The sudden dash across northern Iraq by armed groups, led the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) which seeks to annihilate Shi'ites, has left Maliki exposed. Crucially, ISIL fighters have received support from Sunni tribes who once fought bitterly against them, a sign of widespread Sunni alienation from Baghdad since the end of U.S. occupation.

    Maliki's critics say his rule, particularly in the past four years, is to blame for that polarization.

    While U.S. troops were still in the country, Maliki, a member of a Shi'ite political party that fought underground against Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein, was under strong pressure to reach out to Sunnis and build an inclusive government. He earned Washington's support for confronting Shi'ite militias.

    In the last election in 2010, just before the Americans left, Maliki tried to transcend sectarian politics, but placed a close second to a secularist bloc that was backed by many Sunnis. To stay in power, he assembled a parliamentary bloc of religious Shi'ites, later reneging on power-sharing deals.

    On the day U.S. troops completed their withdrawal in 2011, Maliki's government issued an arrest warrant for the Sunni vice president, tearing up the vestiges of what Sunnis saw as a constitutional arrangement designed to ensure inclusive rule.

    In the years that followed, security unraveled as Sunni militants took advantage of the government's hardline stance towards Sunnis. The tit-for-tat of Sunni violence targeting Shi'ites and government reprisals fueled a downward spiral.

    The senior Maliki ally said U.S. diplomats have now effectively told him he must step down if it becomes clear that Sunni, Kurdish and rival Shi'ite parliamentary blocs will not back him for a third term.

    "They think according to the political situation in the country and what's happening in Sunni areas in the country, Maliki cannot push other parties in the country for a third term," the Maliki ally said. "Maliki has become a polarizing symbol to others, regardless of how he is performing."

    He said U.S. officials had encouraged State of Law to find alternative candidates, and Washington's position was emboldening other parties to insist on Maliki's departure.

    "Once the other parties understand the position of the U.S., they will be strengthened in rejecting Maliki. It gives them a psychological boost."

    (Editing by Peter Graff)


    ...  What a Face 
    Iraq Solidarity News ‏@iraqsolidarity  
    Iraq's Maliki Tells Kerry He'll Start Government Formation Process By July 1
    http://bit.ly/1rqKlWP
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 25 Jun 2014, 10:10

    ...  What a Face 
    Come together, right now...over me
    ...but the record shows, I took the blows and I did it my way...



    Iraqi PM calls on Iraqi politicians to unite
    http://t.co/mKpAU6RLLy

    Iraq PM rejects unity government
    http://t.co/3qHIMDjWUE

    Iraq PM rules out national emergency government
    http://t.co/TXUvzWF310

    Kirk Sowell tweets...

    UticensisRisk: The real news here, were this anyone other than Maliki, is that the head of govt has not resigned. In almost any other country, with such a total failure of leadership, the PM would resign. Of course it is not surprising Maliki's hasn't resigned. But that matters...
    https://twitter.com/uticensisrisk/status/481822151897391104



    And now, the end is here
    And so I face the final curtain
    My friend, I'll say it clear
    I'll state my case, of which I'm certain
    I've lived a life that's full
    I traveled each and ev'ry highway
    And more, much more than this, I did it my way...
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 30 Jun 2014, 00:52

    ...  What a Face



    Special - the literal text of the interview with al-Maliki and John Kerry, U.S. Secretary of State
    Baghdad: June 30, 2014

    https://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&ie=UTF-8&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.iraqpressagency.com%2F%3Fp%3D71952%26lang%3Dar
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Fri 04 Jul 2014, 19:18

    ...  What a Face 


    AlArabiya_Eng: Iraqi PM #Maliki: 'I will never give up my candidacy'
    http://t.co/FsqyOSQhve

    AlArabiya_Eng: Pressure grows on #Iraq’s Maliki to leave power

    http://t.co/FsqyOSQhve

    AlArabiya_Eng: As #Iraq plunges into mayhem, #Maliki clings to power  
    http://t.co/FsqyOSQhve



    Well I won't back down, no I won't back down
    You can stand me up at the gates of Hell
    But I won't back down

    No I'll stand my ground, won't be turned around
    And I'll keep this world from draggin' me down
    Gonna stand my ground and I won't back down

    (I won't back)
    Hey baby, there ain't no easy way out
    (I won't back down)
    Hey I will stand my ground
    And I won't back down

    Well I know what's right, I got just one life
    In a world that keeps on pushin' me around
    But I'll stand my ground and I won't back down

    (I won't back down)
    Hey baby there ain't no easy way out
    (I won't back down)
    Hey I will stand my ground
    (I won't back down)
    And I won't back down

    (I won't back down)
    Hey baby there ain't no easy way out
    (I wont back down)
    Hey I won't back down

    (I won't back down)
    Hey baby there ain't no easy way out
    (I won't back down)
    Hey I will stand my ground
    (I won't back down)
    And I won't back down
    (I won't back down)
    No, I won't back down


    ... What a Face
    what does all this chaos mean for our investment...
    ...review this thread (link below), slowly...and read between the lines...and then maybe even re-read... 

    http://iqdnews.forumotion.com/t2120-what-does-all-this-chaos-mean-for-our-investment


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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Sun 06 Jul 2014, 11:08

    ...  What a Face 

    Kirk Sowell tweets...

    UticensisRisk: ...if any article treats Chalabi as a serious PM candidate, I suggest finding something else to read.
    UticensisRisk: ...and in considering alternatives to Maliki as Iraqi PM, bear in mind Maliki's bloc has 56% of all Shia Islamist seats. So they have a veto.
    UticensisRisk: Anyone the SLC really doesn't like, has no chance of being Iraq's next PM. That includes Chalabi.

    Kirk Sowell, Iraqi political risk analyst, attorney, historian, translator...
    http://about.me/kirksowell/
    http://www.uticensis.com
    https://www.facebook.com/kirk.sowell.1?fref=ts


    ...  What a Face 
    Iraq Solidarity News tweet...

    Despite readiness for change, Iran hopes Maliki will stay on as Iraq PM
    http://t.co/PZ8H6BNkkk
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 08 Jul 2014, 10:03

    ...  What a Face 



    Iraqi PM's Insistence on Running for Third Term and Kurdish Calls for Independence Delay Government Formation ـ
    http://t.co/kJHKytR4zN

    The longer that Iraq is without a government, the greater the chance that Sunni provinces in particular seek autonomy from the centre. Irrespective of the make-up of the next government, only a transformation of political system itself would be likely to effect change on the ground, argues Zaineb Al-Assam.

    Incumbent Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki on 4 July insisted he would run for a third term in office, stating that the 92 seats gained by his State of Law Coalition in the April election gave him the mandate to do so. Since the election, the militant group Islamic State's (formerly known as Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant: ISIL) advance into northern and central Iraq has weakened Maliki's position; failure to retake Tikrit and Beiji is likely to further undermine his position.

    However, Maliki's Shia and Sunni opponents' inability to agree on a replacement candidate makes a successful challenge unlikely but draws out the process nevertheless. Iraq's constitution requires a Speaker to be elected within 15 days of the date of ratification of election results. The president, who is elected by a two-thirds majority, then charges the nominee of the largest bloc with forming a cabinet within 15 days. However, in practice these timelines have been ignored and government formation is likely to be lengthy, possibly lasting over six months.

    Delay to Government Formation

    An attempt on 1 July to elect a Speaker ended abruptly when Sunnis and Kurds walked out; a second meeting is due to be convened on 13 July. Meanwhile, the lack of an obvious contender for president is also likely to delay government formation. Current Iraqi president Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, continues to recover from a stroke and Kurdish aspirations for greater independence from Baghdad, illustrated by Kurdistan president Masoud Barzani's call for a referendum on independence, makes it unlikely that another Kurd will be elected to the post.

    Independence from Baghdad

    Should the Kurds not be awarded the presidency, this will probably support calls from within the Kurdistan Region for independence from Baghdad. Meanwhile, the longer that Iraq is without a government, the greater the chance that Sunni provinces in particular seek autonomy from the centre. Irrespective of the make-up of the next government, only a transformation of political system itself would be likely to effect change on the ground. In the interim, this will be determined by the actions of Shia militias and the ongoing willingness of Iraq's Sunnis to co-operate with the Islamic State.

    Zaineb Al-Assam is a Senior Analyst at IHS Country Risk.
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Sat 12 Jul 2014, 23:42

    ...  What a Face 

    US working to find Maliki replacement
    12.07.2014

    Nuwar Faqie
    BasNews, Baghdad

    The US has given Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki a two-week ultimatum to leave his post and allow Iraq’s political parties to resume the formation of a new government.

    Reports from Washington claim that there will be a US National Security council meeting in the near future, regarding the future of Maliki and finding a suitable replacement.

    The Obama administration has allegedly talked and convinced former Iraqi Defense Minister Abdul-Qadir al-Obaidi to return to Iraq and talk to the Sunni leaders about joining the new Iraqi government.

    Al-Obaidi, an Iraqi Sunni was Defense Ministry during Saddam Hussein’s era and was the Defense Minister of Iraq from 2006 to 2010.

    Since he left his post Al-Obaidi has lived in Washington and has obtained US citizenship. He has good relations with US officials as well as Sunni leaders who are currently against Maliki’s government and supporting the militia groups who are fighting Iraqi army.

    Meanwhile, local Iraqi media reports that through its embassy in Baghdad the White House is in talks with Iraqi Shiite leaders, Ammar Al Hakim, head of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and Influential Iraqi Shia cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr to find a Shiite replacements for the Iraqi Prime Minister post and replace Maliki.

    http://basnews.com/en/News/Details/US-working-to-find-Maliki-replacement/26569
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Mon 14 Jul 2014, 10:01

    ...  What a Face 

    THE COMMON ILLS
    http://thecommonills.blogspot.com/

    Nouri's up to his old tricks while the press remains silent
    7/14/2014

    Violence continues in Iraq today.  All Iraq News notes the Iraqi Air Force bombed northern Iraq and killed 10 suspects, from the safety of the sky the military bombed what they hope were suspects in northern Tikrit leaving 3 people dead, and 7 corpses were dumped in al-Hidaya Village. Sinan Salaheddin (AP) adds a Baghdad car bombing killed at least 4 people and left at least twelve injured. And AFP reports, "Militants on Monday assaulted the final area of the Iraqi town of Dhuluiyah still outside their control, after tribesmen rejected an offer to let them enter uncontested, an official said."

    US President Barack Obama maintains a political solution is needed for Iraq; however, elections were held April 30th and there's still no government being formed.  Yesterday's session of Parliament was a bust (see Third's"Editorial: The Political Solution Nouri al-Maliki Can Offer") and that's Nouri's doing yet again.  Knowing the Sunnis do not and will not support him for a third term as prime minister, he derailed the session by attempting to make his bloc's vote for Speaker of Parliament dependent upon the Sunnis supporting him for a third term.  (Speaker of Parliament is the first position that has to be selected, then president and then prime minister -- they are known as the three presidencies.)

    These are documented facts.  It would be nice if the press could start to recognize them.  (The Iraqi press is aware of them and reporting the facts.)  All Iraq News notes that US Vice President Joe Biden spoke on the phone yesterday with Sunni leader and previous Speaker of Parliament Osama al-Nujaifi:

    "For his part, Biden stressed the need to adhere to the constitutional timings in the nomination for the three presidencies and to form a government of national partnership able to eliminate the challenges facing Iraq, especially the security challenges posed by the ISIL with the need to adopt a new policy based on adopting citizens' needs and aspirations," the statement concluded.

    As long as Nouri derails sessions and doesn't get called on it by the western press, he'll keep doing it.  His plan is to exhaust his opponents, that's what he always does.  The rabid dog has no new tricks and only an ignorant press stays silent as he does the same thing over and over.

    The Parliament is supposed to meet again on Tuesday.  If the western press hasn't found a voice by then (and the White House is silent as well), look for Nouri to continue his antics.  And remember, in 2010, he pulled this stunt for over 8 months in a row -- that was the political stalemate.
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 22 Jul 2014, 12:18

    ...  What a Face 
    my money is on malarky, delays and postponement...

    Kirk Sowell tweets...

    So the Iraqi parliament is to meet tomorrow to elect a president. Speaker Salim al-Jiburi gave a presser today saying there were over 100 candidates...Of course we know only 2-3 are really in the running. Most prominent names remaining seem to be Fuad Masum, Barham Salih and Adnan Mufti. And Mufti I don't think is all that seriously in the running. I can firmly predict Osama al-Nujayfi will not be elected.

    Nujayfi was seriously running for the office last fall, but his disastrous electoral campaign, based on "The Shia are Genociding Us Sunnis," wrecked Nujayfi's candidacy. What's weird is that he seems to have thought such an electoral strategy would work...

    So let's say it is either Barham or Masum. The 'Inside Reformer' v. the 'Good Family Soldier'.

    Kirk Sowell, Iraqi political risk analyst, attorney, historian, translator...
    http://about.me/kirksowell/
    http://www.uticensis.com
    https://www.facebook.com/kirk.sowell.1?fref=ts
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 23 Jul 2014, 09:56

    goodyboy wrote:...  What a Face 
    my money is on malarky, delays and postponement...

    ...  What a Face 
    still doing the two-step, while just stepping back...
    ...plus, better odds than Vegas...


    Iraq postpones vote for president, delaying power-sharing deal
    http://t.co/6ssAkvZzXv

    ...13 candidates were rejected. By law, they have right to appeal to court...
    ...8 Iraq prez candidates disqualified for legal reasons. Right to appeal should mean no prez election till next week...
    http://t.co/mvR1yjBnyU
    https://twitter.com/reidarvisser/status/491870475770142720

    Reidar Visser ‏@reidarvisser: If #Iraq PM Maliki's bloc adheres to court ruling defining it as the largest bloc,
    it effectively means abrogating the larger pan-Shia alliance.

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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 23 Jul 2014, 18:41

    goodyboy wrote:
    goodyboy wrote:

    ...  What a Face 
    Iraq Solidarity News tweet...
    Iraq: al-Maliki rejects Iran's urging to step down
    http://t.co/J6qCcKWvhN

    Shiite politicians say Iraq's al-Maliki rejected top ally Iran's pressure to ... - U.S. News & World Report
    http://t.co/BMUx8fuCnS
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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 14 Aug 2014, 16:21

    ...  What a Face 
    I hope you had the time of your life...

    AP: Iraq prime minister Nouri al-Maliki says he will relinquish post to rival Haider al-Abadi
    http://t.co/Z9KhnseZzQ



    Another turning point, a fork stuck in the road
    Time grabs you by the wrist, directs you where to go
    So make the best of this test, and don't ask why
    It's not a question, but a lesson learned in time

    It's something unpredictable, but in the end is right,
    I hope you had the time of your life.

    So take the photographs, and still frames in your mind
    Hang it on a shelf in good health and good time
    Tattoos and memories and dead skin on trial
    For what it's worth it was worth all the while

    It's something unpredictable, but in the end is right,
    I hope you had the time of your life.

    It's something unpredictable, but in the end is right,
    I hope you had the time of your life.

    It's something unpredictable, but in the end is right,
    I hope you had the time of your life.

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    Re: Maliki's 3rd term chances...

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