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     3 scenarios for the formation of the next government...


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    Post  goodyboy on Sat 03 May 2014, 09:46

    ...  What a Face
    maybe time to do the two-step back...
    ...for cross reference, also see...

    3 scenarios for the formation of the next government ... and the negotiations may take a full year...

     3 scenarios for the formation of the next government... 463749

    The elections have few previous few surprises, and it seems that the current elections are no different in that its predecessors.

    in 2009, swept the list of the prime minister, a coalition of state law, areas in the south and Baghdad in the local elections for the provinces to build on his success against the Mehdi Army militia of Sadr in Basra and Missan and Baghdad, and the military campaign against insurgents in Mosul, and the defiance of the response on the disputed areas a year earlier. The Islamic Supreme Council is the biggest loser because of poor performance after winning a landslide victory in 2005.

    In 2010, show that al-Maliki will gain a big win, but the Iraqi List, it outperformed a single seat. Maliki was resorting to the courts to get a ruling allowing him to form a coalition after the election, rather than the winner so. Then play the chord divisions within the Iraqi List, and the fear of the Kurdish parties for the Iraqi List, a second term. In the provincial elections of 2013, the State of Law coalition lost seats because of bad governance. More importantly, the Sadrists and the Supreme Council They form a cross-sectarian alliance in order to prevent state law from winning new local governments.

    It seems that most observers expect the Iraqi prime minister for most of the seats in parliament, and then performs a very lengthy negotiations could take a full year, and guaranteed himself another four years in office.

    He hopes that the Prime Minister backed Shiite base because of the fear of escalating armed action and gives him a lot of votes. After you will be able to play on the splits within the Sunni parties for an alliance with Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlaq. If they gave it momentum, the other parties, as it is known in Iraqi politics, will jump to ensure that the same positions in the new government.

    An alternative scenario could play it. In the last year managed the Supreme Council of the truncated base-Maliki and said he hoped to repeat it again. I have pictures himself a national party supported by the religious establishment in Najaf. Believes that block free bra can sustain the alliance that formed in 2013 with the election of the Supreme Council. If they approached the number of seats in Maliki is everyone's right to form the majority needed to form a new government.

    Can Shiite religious parties (al-Sadr and al-Hakim) playing on a shared hatred for the prime minister and that shares their lists of other such united under the leadership of Speaker Osama Najafi and KDP leader Massoud Barzani, in order to meet state law. In previous years, al-Maliki was able to play on the differences of his opponents, but the opposition to this year could be stronger enough to unite them. This could give the prime minister a chance 50-50 to stay in office.

    But the problem is that the process of determining the real winner will take months, and at the same time, the case will remain what it is now.

    It should also note that if the opposition won the factions of the owners they will not be able to form a majority government without the participation of the state of law, the courts are under the control of al-Maliki, it is quite possible that control them to veto any alliance is not covered. A third possibility is that the process of government formation will turn into a dead-end to the extent that al-Maliki to resign as prime minister, but will demand that keeps the coalition of state law office. And this will require a new candidate from within the menu. Except Higher Education Minister Ali al-Adeeb, the rival of the owners, the party lacks the other members of the senior. Here again, the Prime Minister was in charge of compromise in the Dawa Party, before taking the lead in 2005, so it will be a precedent that shows a person from the wings to assume power. It can also be the Deputy Prime Minister Hussain al-Shahristani from the list of (independent) another alternative. Finally, there is the role played by external forces. It seems that the Obama administration is trying to engage again in Iraq because of escalating violence, but they are likely to try to play the role of neutral and ensures only that the process is as fair as possible.

    This does not apply to the other players, in the case of Turkey, attracting about D-Maliki, but allied with the united and with the Kurdistan Democratic Party. Can be paid Monday to work together in their opposition to the prime minister. Also, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states stand against al-Maliki, but it also opposes the rule of Shiites in general, but that is deadlocked because of the sectarian quota system, which it believes the ruling parties, which will determine the influence.

    Finally, Iran could play a pivotal role, has supported al-Maliki to maintain the status quo in Iraq because they are more interested in the fighting in Syria now. Here also can get angry because of al-Maliki played "divide and conquer" with Kurdish and Shiite parties that have close ties with Tehran, which has led to political instability in Iraq. The Iran to change the game if they weighed in favor of the Supreme Council and the Sadrists during the negotiations to form a new government. All these factors seem to be Iraq's elections in 2014 will have a lot of surprises.

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    Post  goodyboy on Sat 03 May 2014, 10:44

    ...  What a Face 
    Kirk Sowell tweets...

    ...the one clear result of #IraqElections2014 is a much more explicitly sectarian political map...
    Mutahidun's call today for Sunnis to unite into a single coalition opposite the (Shia) National Alliance is a recognition of this reality...whether Maliki is reelected or not, the Shia parties will reconstitute the Nat'l Alliance and it will probably be more than 50% of the seats....btw, ISCI endorsed "majority govt" during the campaign. Maybe Hakim was sniffing glue...
    (fyi...the Citizen Coalition [Hakim] represents an alliance between the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and 18 other parties and factions)

    for an objective perspective, you may also want to check out more from Kirk Sowell...reportedly a non-dinarian, but a walking encyclopedia on Iraqi politics...

    Kirk Sowell, Iraqi political risk analyst, attorney, historian, translator...

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    Post  goodyboy on Sun 04 May 2014, 13:39

    ...  What a Face 
    nothing like a common foe to bring about unity, where there has been disunity...

    Strong alliance of 5 parties to form a government, a new partnership
    05.04.2014 (0:01 pm)

    (It is) confirmed Ktlta that Liberals are united and the existence of an agreement in principle between 5 political components, including the Citizen and the Kurdistan coalition and Allawi, to create a "strong coalition" The formation of the government and prevent al-Maliki to get a third term.

    He revealed deputies from the meetings leading up to the elections conducted by these blocks to determine the features of the next government, stressing that all parties wait for the final results of the ballot, to start negotiations to form a government.

    As asserted that the "majority government" advocated by the leader of a coalition of state law, has become a distant dream, talked about the need to establish a consensus government in which all components represent the size fits within the parliament.

    The Prime Minister reiterated his quest to form a majority government policy in the next phase, but this call is facing concerns from several political parties to be a new chapter for the exclusion and marginalization of the representatives of the other components.

    In this context, it is Jawad al-Jubouri, a spokesman for the Liberal bloc, said that "Maliki's call to form a majority government, after his inability to win parliamentary seats adequate, it became a dream and impossible," and said that "it is difficult to state block achieve half plus one."

    He added Jubouri, in a statement to the "long" yesterday, saying that "the dream-Maliki to form a majority government has become elusive and can not be done according to what he got from the votes in the new parliament."

    And saw Jubouri "The prime minister of the outgoing does not work to take advantage of the post of prime minister is not him personally, not even for his own party to achieve overwhelming victory in the parliamentary elections," pointing out that "the modern-Maliki for his ability to form a majority government policy include some sort of challenge and Alastaadae and exclusion of others ".

    And confirms a spokesman for the Liberal bloc that "the change that talked about the Iraqi people, which has the support of religious leaders and public opinion and civil society organizations has become a reality in order to change the policy of exclusion and marginalization."

    Reveals Jubouri from "hold blocs of the free and the citizens of the several meetings and meetings in order to re-activate the National Coalition (Council and Liberal) because they will form the majority within it and that would be the prime ministerial candidate of the coalition, specifically."

    Jubouri and stresses that "the National Alliance is a coalition of the next phase will come out of it and the prime minister who will form the next government."

    This confirms to the coalition united, led by Osama Najafi, he had had several meetings with the Kurdistan Alliance and the Liberal bloc and the citizen, one day before the April 30 ballot.

    And between MP Jamal al-Kilani, the "long" yesterday, said that "the meetings were focused on the formation of a strong coalition capable of forming the next government," adding that "by a majority government is becoming difficult because of the election law, which would allow the arrival of a small block of the Parliament."

    He said a member of the coalition are united that "the formation of a majority government headed by al-Maliki is difficult to achieve because the government has not fulfilled the demands of the people," expected "for a coalition of the Liberal, and the Citizen, and the Kurdistan Alliance, and are united, and some of the other blocs, which falls with him on nearly 225 seats."

    I take it Mahma Khalil, MP for the Kurdistan Alliance, said that "a hint Maliki's ability to form a majority government before elections are campaigning," likely "the formation of a coalition government is different from the Maliki government ended after he created crises and failed to provide services and security infrastructure."

    And saw Khalil, told the "long", "The next government will be represented by a compromise, according to the amended electoral each block in the government," stressing that "the results of the elections and alliances will determine two of the Prime Minister for the next stage."

    In the same context, speaks Salem Daly, a member of the national coalition led by Iyad Allawi, for "a significant decline in the popularity of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in parliamentary elections that took place on the thirtieth of April, and what he got from the seats is a result of the dissatisfaction of the masses on the performance of the Iraqi government in phase of the past. "

    Confirms Delly, in an interview with "long", "The government of the majority advocated by al-Maliki before the election and after the convergence difficulty formed by a specific block in these circumstances and intersections," stressing that "the government of the majority must be with the participation of the political forces of all the components of the Iraqi people. "

    He pointed out a member of Allawi's coalition to "the existence of a common vision between the Sadrist movement and a coalition of national and Kurdistan Alliance and a coalition of citizens and are united to form a majority government policy in the next phase," noting that "blocks the National Liberals, the citizen, are united, the Kurdistan Alliance has a unified vision not to allow owners The third renewal of his mandate, "stressing" the existence of meetings took place between these blocks before the election but did not crystallize these meetings to a worksheet or a complete project and is awaiting the election announcement in its final form. "

    Delly felt that "the problems facing Iraq now united the majority of the political blocs against the government's performance to the firm conviction that the Maliki government is not able to meet the demands of the masses and this is positive for the owners counted because he united the political opposition."

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