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    DA CC notes...

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    goodyboy
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    DA CC notes...

    Post  goodyboy on Wed 16 Apr 2014, 16:57

    DA CC notes…  What a Face 

    its been well over six months since I listened in on a DA CC…this CC (4/13) was recommended to me and I took the time to make a few notes...the main theme was “Iraqi preparation”…as I peruse all the dinarian analysis here and abroad, I’m always looking for convergence and points of unity rather than divergence and points of disunity...knowledge is power...overall, I thought this CC was quite encouraging...so take it or leave it...


    a number of salient articles were reviewed and analyzed...

    Kap: Iraq can’t stay at a rate of 1166 and expect the world to continue knocking on their doors desiring to invest in their economy…

    On 4/2/14, Iraqi TV transcripts revealed the following statement made by an economic authority…"it is inevitable that the IQD will be accepted by world currencies and revalued sooner than expected" and a week later the news came out about reprinting their currency…it is entirely possible that the source who made the statements on TV knew about this plan…and this is exactly what we are seeing being revealed…a plan of preparation: a plan of reprinting and refurbishing the currency, buying gold, bulking up on reserves, developing their banking infrastructure and reference recently in the news regarding the remaining laws (see below) that need to be in place etc. This is clearly a preparatory phase to move into article VIII and begin to float the dinar so the currency begins to appreciate. Reprinting the same currency is a strong statement arguing for a float (gradually increasing the value of the current currency as per IMF guidelines specific to Iraq).

    I expect currency reform to be a priority after the elections and once the government gets ratified and seated…regardless of who wins the elections, the mood will be positive (and anticipatory) because of a new parliament and this will be the opportune time to continue with positive movement and address currency reform.

    I have not seen anything that suggests that the new government will need to be seated by some drop dead date…even if there is reference to requirements for the timeline of the new government, Maliki has always changed the rules to be convenient for him…but regardless, the insurance laws in particular, need to be in place to protect investments, as well as further refinement of the banking infrastructure. A recent article stated that it is imperative that the budget impasse gets resolved and the package of economic laws are passed soon after the elections…outside companies, businesses and investors are saying we are ready as soon as you move to an open market policy…

    Enorrste:…high reserves of a central bank are necessary for closed market economies…when countries move into a free market economy those high amount of reserves are not that necessary…Enorrste says Iraq has such a high level of reserve that this could eventually support a very high exchange rate of the IQD…once the float begins, it is going to take off and rise very quickly...
    Kap: articles reference a "correction" that will likely occur, eventually stabilizing the rate...

    Kap: I expect Iraq to move into IMF article VIII and gradual appreciation of the currency before the end of the year (Enorrste is skeptical)...Iraq is trying to line all their ducks up (banking, laws, Kurdistan ISX) so when they do move into IMF article VIII they want this transition and process to be successful…

    …I’ve been thinking about this and as much as we don’t like Maliki, it may not be in our interest for Maliki to lose this election, because the dynamics of currency reform have been shaped by the current administration and are already in place and moving towards IMF article VIII…an entirely new administration may slow down the process that is already in place and I guess we will see…

    Regarding IMF article VIII: when you go to article IMF VIII, you must have a different exchange rate (than they have now) and transition from a closed monetary policy and into an open monetary policy…the next article IV consultation will be sometime this year (the IMF recently made a site "staff visit" in Iraq presumably to prepare for the upcoming consultation)…the IMF will review Iraq's monetary policy and review their progress with the conditions given to them from the 2013 article IV consultation…making the transition into IMF article VIII will represent leaving the old (current) method of managing the currency to a new method of managing the currency…all the preparations that Iraq has been doing will continue after the elections…the momentum is moving in that direction...once they enter into IMF article VIII the floodgates will open in Iraq and there will be no place for the rate to go but up…

    ...we have to remember that Iraq moves at a snail's pace...it all seems so simple to us, but its a lot to ask for a war torn country with a fragile democracy (and all the malarki)…


    Special DinarAlert Conference Call - Sunday, April 13, 2014 - Replay Information 133 minutes
    https://www.freeconferencing.com/playback_ow.html?n=/storage/sgetFC/Ii7l8/ieuyr
    Playback number: 805-399-1099 Code: 296983#
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    goodyboy
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    Re: DA CC notes...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 17 Apr 2014, 14:37

    ...  What a Face 
    more evidence of preparation...folks, IMO this is major news and a significant prerequisite as Iraq anticipates currency reform...again we see the term "activating" and "the integration of Iraq in the international financial system"...just think about it...

    Net and the World Bank mission to discuss activating the partnership to develop a permanent banking system
    17/4/2014




    Minister of Finance Agency purity of net debt with the World Bank's head of mission in Iraq, Mary Helen (discuss) ways of activating the strategic partnership permanent and access to a comprehensive banking system in the country.

    According to a ministry statement today that "the Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of cooperation with the World Bank because of its important role in the formulation of strategies and the integration of Iraq in the international financial system."

    He noted that "the overall banking system will enable the banks by activation of processes of capacity development that will contribute effectively to the process of the reconstruction of Iraq."

    The net price of the World Bank's efforts to help Iraq in the process of administration and his money being invested in projects of the most important factors of development.

    On the other hand, Helen acclaimed (gave kudos to) cooperation of the Iraqi side with the World Bank's mission to draw (delineate) a financial partnership based on a common interest of both sides.

    http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ar&u=http://www.albabelyia.net/%3Fcat%3D39%26paged%3D42&prev=/search%3Fq%3D%25D8%25A7%25D9%2584%25D9%2582%25D8%25B7%25D8%25A7%25D8%25B9%2B%25D8%25A7%25D9%2584%25D9%2585%25D8%25B5%25D8%25B1%25D9%2581%25D9%258A%26lr%3D%26cr%3DcountryIQ%26hl%3Den%26tbs%3Dqdr:d,ctr:countryIQ


    Last edited by goodyboy on Thu 17 Apr 2014, 14:47; edited 1 time in total
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    goodyboy
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    Re: DA CC notes...

    Post  goodyboy on Thu 17 Apr 2014, 14:38

    "activation"...  What a Face 

    oh yeah...meet the parents...

    CBI defends the procedures followed in the auction currency
    04/16/2014 10:21

    Tomorrow's Press / BAGHDAD: The governor of the CBI Abdel Basset Turki, said Wednesday, that lengthy discussions that took place recently between Iraq and the IMF and World Bank in Washington were related to instructions that have been issued by the CBI with respect to the auction sale of foreign currency.

    Abdul Basit Turki said for "Tomorrow's Press", "The World Bank expressed doubts about some of the paragraphs of the window (passage) from the sale of the currency in Iraq and assumed by the CBI," pointing out that "the CBI was to clarify all of these items for both the World Bank, IMF and representatives of the Department of the Treasury U.S."

    He added that "the results of the recent selling of the currency proved to be successful procedures, as well as achieving economic results acceptable for continued stability of the exchange rate of the currency and for banks to continue with this provision of currency smoothly and without any crises." He stressed that "discussions are still ongoing with the U.S. Treasury Department about the activation of financial relations between Washington and Baghdad."

    http://alghadpress.com/ar/news/12575/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%B2%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B9-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A1%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%B9%D8%A9-]http://alghadpress.com/ar/news/12575/المركزي-يدافع-عن-اجراءاته-المتبعة-

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