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    anticipating the 2014 IMF article IV consultations...

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    goodyboy
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    anticipating the 2014 IMF article IV consultations...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 11 Mar 2014, 21:32

    ...  What a Face 

    ...posted below are three seminal articles I pulled from our iLibrary from last year to provide some context for what we should be expecting in the upcoming IMF article IV consultations with Iraq...initially scheduled for March 2014, but reportedly now rescheduled until some time after the elections...IMO, it's easy to lose even recent historical continuity of the plan for Iraq's currency reform and then become more susceptible to all the speculation...

    ...this was taken from a previous IMF publication asking Iraq to promote the value of the IQD..."the International Monetary Fund holds a vision for Iraq as completely isolated from the global system, which calls (for Iraq) to ask the government to promote the value of the Iraqi dinar, compared with foreign currency and (other) Arabic (currency)."

    ...there are many other supporting articles from the IMF, WB and UN that underscore the plan and progress being made for currency reform in Iraq...but reviewing these more recent articles (below) again may provide some reassurance for those who are once again wondering about the legitimacy of this investment, as well as providing insight into what we are likely to hear from the IMF after the 2014 consultations...



    IMF Provides Silver Lining to Iraq Debate
    3/24/13

    Snip .. "Despite a difficult security and political environment, Iraq managed to maintain macroeconomic stability over the past two years," he said"

    The International Monetary Fund offered a silver lining to the otherwise scathing barrage of reports out last week critical of the U.S. experiment in Iraq. The IMF said oil production for 2013 should increase roughly 10 percent from last year to 3.3 million bpd. Meanwhile, economic growth for the year should stay strong at 9 percent for the year. The 10-year U.S. military engagement accomplished little in terms of grand political achievements or internal stability. But if economic progress is any benchmark, then Iraq could be on the right path, relatively speaking, despite medium-term challenges.

    The United States declared war on Iraq 10 years ago last Wednesday. Former U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix said last week that the policymakers involved in the decision to go to war "certainly did not exercise critical thinking." For the Brookings Institution, the cost of "an unwarranted" war was 100,000 dead Iraqis, 4.5 million refugees and the near-elimination of some religious minorities. Martin Kobler, U.N. special envoy to Iraq, said there are very challenging times ahead as the country struggles to cope with political stalemates, mounting opposition to the nation's leaders, terrorist attacks and strained relationships between Baghdad and the Kurdish governments. The Syrian war, meanwhile, has the "very real potential" to spill across the border.

    IMF Middle East economist Carlo Sdralevich met in Jordan for 10 days with Iraqi Acting Finance Minister Ali al-Shukri and top banking officials to discuss the country's post-war economic progress. Iraq last year posted a budget surplus of around 4 percent of gross domestic product thanks in large part to higher-than expected oil revenues. Growth in the medium-term, Sdralevich cautioned, might not be sustainable unless the government can show some financial discipline, however.

    "Iraq will need to address serious medium-term challenges in order to be able to create the conditions for high and sustainable growth that is necessary to improve the living standards of its people," he said.

    Last week, Tony Hayward, chief of Genel Energy (GENL.L), said he was optimistic about the future of the energy sector in Iraq. Genel started work in Iraq before the U.S.-led invasion and endured the political crises and budget woes that have strained already-tense relations between the Kurdish and central governments. Intermittent exports from the Kurdish region still give his company the opportunity to get 100,000 barrels of oil per day to the domestic market. Though he'd like to get that to the foreign markets, he said there was an "enormous" opportunity in the country.

    Make no mistake – Iraq is not the beacon of democracy and regional stability envisioned by the Bush administration. Baghdad already postponed some elections because of the security situation after al-Qaida attacks last week left at least 65 people dead.

    The IMF's Sdralevich stressed that Iraq needed to move beyond oil if it's to show any form of long-term growth stability. Nevertheless, he said the economy was moving in the right direction along with oil production, which should reach 3.3 million bpd this year.

    "Despite a difficult security and political environment, Iraq managed to maintain macroeconomic stability over the past two years," he said.

    http://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Economy/IMF-Provides-Silver-Lining-to-Iraq-Debate.html


    Financial: you must abide by the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund about the country's monetary policy
    4/4/13

    Baghdad (newsletter). Deputy Chairman of the Finance Committee MP/Kurdistan blocs Coalition/Faizullah, (stressed) the importance of adhering to the recommendations by the International Monetary Fund (in their) support for the development of the country's monetary policy.

    He said Faizullah (News Agency): that Iraq needs the expertise of international banks with regard to financial and monetary policy of the country...the International Monetary Fund has the accumulated experience and mentality, which can be used to support (us with) the exchange rate of the national currency.

    He added: the International Monetary Fund issues seasonal reports confirming the positive and negative indicators of the economies of developing countries, including Iraq, and (has) presented a set of recommendations...and is committed to promoting the financial and economic sectors in the country.

    http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http://www.ikhnews.com/index.php%3Fpage%3Darticle%26id%3D80278



    Bank of Baghdad begins initiative to reduce the exchange rate of the dollar and confirms: (this process is in progress and has been ongoing...would love to hear from BNA13 on this...)
    6/8/13

    Baghdad - The Department of the Bank of Baghdad, on Tuesday, the association of private banks in Iraq "launched an initiative to reduce the dollar exchange rate" to "(1183) to sell cash and (1178)" for the adoption of a documentary, and showed that the initiative began, "three banks" under the auspices of the Central Bank of Iraq , and stressed that "the (25) banks" would seek to reduce the price of the dollar, as revealed on "dollar decline by thirty dinars within two hours only" the start of the official working hours for the day, has indicated it will include every day, "(400) citizen" distribution and by " five thousand dollars per citizen.

    The head of the Association of private banks in Iraq, and the Managing Director of the Bank of Baghdad, Adnan al-Chalabi, in an interview to a number of media, including (range Press), on the sidelines of the Bank of Baghdad organized a conference to announce the reduction of the dollar exchange rate, at its headquarters, the center of the capital Baghdad, that "the initiative of the Association of private banks in Iraq, under the auspices of the Central Bank of Iraq NARI onset three banks are all from Assyria, Baghdad and guidance to reduce the exchange rate of the dollar.

    He said Chalabi that "have been identified dollar exchange rate (1183) in cash sales instead of (1189) and (1178) for the adoption of a documentary rather than (1184)," and pointed out that "as soon as the announcement of the move before starting implementation dropped the dollar in the markets Iraqi and arrived degrees low ", and expressed the hope that the" fall more after starting to sell at reduced prices.

    According to Chalabi that "has been planning for this operation after numerous interviews with the central bank views supreme in Parliament was launched the idea by banks that operate all the banks to reduce the dollar exchange rate," and went onto say that "the dollar has fallen from Price (1250) to (1220) until the time ten this morning.

    The Managing Director of the Bank of Baghdad that "will reduce the price of the dollar by the twenty-five banks from banks registered in the Association," explaining that he "will begin next week selling price reduced," pointing out that "this will support the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar and will make its price strong toward the dollar.

    He pointed out that "the number of banks registered in the Association is thirty Iraqi banks and six branches of Arab banks," and expressed his belief that "thirty-six banks will agree and next week will be selling reduction," مردفا "We will not stand at this step as a link banks, but will be followed by steps another for the purpose of reducing the price of the dollar, "vowing to" work together in all the banks to reduce the price of the dollar.

    He Janabi that "the central bank promised to double the share of private banks of four millions of dollars to eight millions of dollars a week," returned the move as "a step support for the banks," calling on all banks to "commitment smoothly sale and delivery of the dollar to the citizens smoothly good style good".

    For his part, expert said Bank of Baghdad Abbas Sudan, in an interview (range Press) that "the reduction and distribution of the dollar exchange rate systems in accordance with rules and terms and conditions issued by the Central Bank of Iraq," noting that "our conditions are a legal process must take into account all the controls that in." .

    He added that "the mechanism of action in the distribution process, guided announce the names of customers on the wall and are distributed twenty list of all the pool list (20) customer to become a distribution on a daily basis at least (400) customer," hoping "that the process in the coming period on a broader level.

    The Sudanese saying, "We distribute them to the amounts added by us to the central bank to increase the supply of the dollar," pointing out that "increasing the supply of the dollar will reduce the dollar exchange rate," stressing that "this will contribute to support the Iraqi dinar exchange rate and improve the economic situation in the markets local communities.

    And that "customers attend under the terms of which bring passport and dictate form and photographing the menu (42) in the passport," مردفا that "after the completion of these actions gets citizen five thousand dollars and the amount of (1183)," stressing that "the listed They are specific only to sell the dollar. "

    He pointed out that "Iqbal citizens to buy the dollar is good," adding that they "were present since an early hours of the morning," he said, adding, "We doubled the number of staff in order to accommodate the arrivals to buy the dollar."

    The Central Bank of Iraq announced, on Monday, received a formal letter from the Association of Banks confirms its commitment to the initiative of three banks as a first stage to sell the dollar at a rate lower than the price the advertiser, as pointed out that this initiative represents a "natural behavior", which show him Iraqi banks, stressed that it in line with its monetary policy to support the Iraqi economy.

    The Central Bank of Iraq announced, earlier, the cancellation of banking companies is registered has regardless of obtaining clearance from the Ministry of Commerce or not, and stressed that the banking companies registered and certified before 2003 were 300 companies only, as pointed out that companies exceeded Thousand It a mixture of companies that operate in accordance with the conditions and regulations of the bank and the other got the approval from the Ministry of Trade, while other companies operate without getting any vacation.

    Referred to as the central bank announced, earlier this year, 2013, it closed 190 banking offices in Baghdad and the provinces for violating the legal requirements imposed by the Bank.

    The fact-finding committee in matches Development Fund of Iraq revealed, April 8, 2013, that the central bank sold during the past six years in the auctions process conducted by about 207 billion dollars, equivalent to 56% of the revenues of Iraq's oil in those years, and while confirming that these sales were more doubles than you need the local market, they revealed that more than half of those sales went to the banks specific poured their purchases from the bank in the Gulf and Jordan. accused deputies, politicians and economists Central Bank of Iraq over the past months, burn "an average of four billion dollars a month in an auction hard currency for the benefit of ten banks, mostly with Gulf capital, buy a day most of the claims of the Central Bank of hard currency and overcharge make a profit of up to 6% as it controls the Iraqi economy. "

    Accused the General Authority for the North Bank for Finance and Investment, on the seventh of April 2013, the CBI not to meet the needs of the Iraqi market of hard currency over the past five months and refer it the responsibility of the private banks, while confirming that Iraq needs to pump nearly $ 300 million in the market daily to meet needs of the currency in the currency the central bank when he criticized the remarks they promised to attack him and "stems from ignorance and lack of knowledge of monetary policy."

    The Cabinet decided to Iraqi (16 October 2012), the prime BSA Abdul Basit Turki functions of the central bank governor and the agency rather than the Governor of the Bank Previous Shabibi on charges of issues of financial and administrative corruption in the bank, especially in operations Auction dollars, but the something that did not occur to the work of the Bank and currency auction whereas the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar a significant decline against the dollar jumped from 1170 dinars to the dollar in the fall of 2012 to 1270 dinars to the dollar in April 2013.

    The International Monetary Fund said in a report issued in (03.21.2013), following the end of the consultations held in Amman between a delegation from the Fund and an Iraqi delegation headed by VMware Planning Ali Shukri, and seen (long-Presse) it "an improvement in the financial sector," but confirmed that it is still "need to be greater efforts by the central bank in the revision of monetary policy tools and strengthen banking supervision, and to accelerate the restructuring of the banking system."

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) called the CBI to "take measures to (progress) gradually towards the liberalization of foreign exchange through auctions held by the Bank so as not to repeat disorders suffered by the financial market in the past year."

    The Fund stressed that the establishment of a national banking system requires the abandonment of the current model, which is controlled by weak banks and by state-owned banks that receive preferential treatment apart from private banks, "calling on Iraq to do to strengthen public financial institutions to ensure efficiency and transparency in the use of oil revenues.

    http://translate.google.com/translate?depth=1&hl=en&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dnahrain%26hl%3Den&rurl=translate.google.ca&sl=ar&u=http://www.almadapress.com/ar/NewsDetails.aspx%3FNewsID%3D13820


    Last edited by goodyboy on Tue 11 Mar 2014, 21:35; edited 2 times in total
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    goodyboy
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    Re: anticipating the 2014 IMF article IV consultations...

    Post  goodyboy on Tue 11 Mar 2014, 21:33

    from lil sister...  What a Face 
    ...ramping up preparation for currency reform...very encouraging news...

    NET and the World Bank to discuss activating the permanent development of the banking system

    Baghdad (newsletter). Financial agency Minister Safaa met with the World Bank's mission Chief in Iraq Mary Helen (to work out) a means of activating a strategic partnership for access to the banking system in the country.

    The llozar received (News Agency), a copy of: the (Iraqi) Ministry of Finance emphasizes the importance of cooperation with the World Bank for its role in developing strategies (towards) the integration of Iraq into the international financial system.

    He noted that the overall banking system will enable: banks (in Iraq will have) the capacity and the development process, which will contribute effectively to the reconstruction of Iraq.

    The price (consequence) of the net World Bank's efforts to assist Iraq in the process of managing their money (will be manifested as) investing in projects being (that are) the most important factors of development (for Iraq).

    On the other hand a tribute (a big thank you and show of appreciation) to Helen by the Iraqi side, (who have) cooperated with the World Bank's mission to draw a common financial partnership based on the interests of both sides./finished/FS/

    http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=ar&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ikhnews.com%2Findex.php%3Fpage%3Darticle%26id%3D116003


    now bringing this back to the March 2013 IMF Article IV Consultation...

    “14. The de facto fixed exchange rate has served Iraq well. The authorities agreed that a stable nominal exchange rate provides a valuable anchor for inflation expectations in an uncertain environment, and intend to continue implementing this policy for the foreseeable future. In the medium term, staff encouraged the authorities to consider creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy. Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate, triggered by strong oil revenues and the Balassa-Samuelson effect, to accommodate a possible real exchange rate appreciation while keeping domestic inflation low.”

    article quotes:

    "and intend to continue implementing this policy for the foreseeable future."

    - This implies at the time of this report (March 2013) there was no intention to raise the value for a while (forreseeable future)..which could be months or a year or more.

    "In the medium term, staff encouraged the authorities to consider creating the conditions which would make possible a move to a more flexible exchange rate policy."

    - This is asking them though to prepare for the day when they change to a float (flexible exchange rate) This is clearly outlined in documents about preparing for the exit. Whether orderly or disorderly the IMF is asking them to prepare. This also seems to be in line with this article above and the World Bank..the timing of this (about a year after the 2013 Article IV Consultation) would indicate they are asking the WB for help preparing for this day. Here are two docs about leaving a peg to a float..

    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04126.pdf

    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/issues/issues38/ei38.pdf

    article quotes:

    "Such flexibility could allow a predictable and gradual appreciation of the nominal exchange rate,"

    - This is exactly what we want to happen. The IMF is saying clearly moving to a flexible exchange regime, will let the dinar rise in value gradually (nominal exchange rate means dinar to another currency like the dollar [1166:1])

    Knowing the IMF must approve, it is clear..the dinar will rise gradually via a new exchange regime...

      Current date/time is Sat 19 Aug 2017, 20:10